INFEWS/T1: Decision-Driven Advances in Integrated Assessment Modeling of the Food-Energy-Water Nexus

INFEWS/T1：粮食-能源-水关系综合评估模型的决策驱动进展

• 批准号: 1855982
• 负责人: Thomas Wild
• 金额: $ 247.68万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-07-15 至 2024-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1855982&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: INFEWS; T1; Decision; Driven; Advances

Scientific understanding of the interdependencies between food, energy, and water systems (FEWS) is of growing importance, as global change creates new risks as well as potential benefits from the integrated FEWS nexus. Many important decisions that influence FEWS nexus issues are made by regional decision makers. However, regional FEWS planning is also shaped by national and global dynamics, including socioeconomic and technological changes, international trade dynamics, climate change, and national efforts to address societal priorities such as economic growth and sustainable development goals (SDGs). The ability of nations to achieve these broader societal goals is, in turn, strongly influenced by regional decisions. This project develops a new, integrated analytical approach that considers the interconnections among food, energy, and water systems to improve regional FEWS planning. The research ensures consistency of regional planning scenarios with national and global trends, while also considering institutional barriers to integrated planning. This project focuses on integrated FEWS planning in river basins in Argentina and Uruguay. These locations are ideal testbeds for developing this new approach due to their strong regional-to-global connectivity through agricultural trade, diversity in institutional structures, and mix of far-reaching policies, from SDGs to climate adaptation. This research will directly benefit U.S. national interests, as sustainable development in Latin America promotes stability in international markets for agricultural and energy goods. Three primary science questions guide the research: (1) What analytical methods can be applied at regional scale to not only couple among FEW systems but also to broader national and global dynamics in a manner that is computationally efficient, data efficient, and decision-relevant? (2) What institutional barriers limit the adoption of FEW systems planning at a regional scale and how can analytical tools be designed and integrated into institutional processes to overcome those barriers? (3) How can uncertainties affecting regional the FEW systems decision-making processes be most effectively characterized and visualized to improve the robustness of FEW systems planning? Generalizable insights and analytical toolkits developed in answering these questions will promote more robust and sustainable economic growth internationally and in the United States, and will be transferable to other locations, including the United States. The overarching goal of this research is to design and use models to break down institutional barriers and facilitate joint institutional decision making across the food, energy, and water sectors. The project will contribute three science advances that facilitate adoption of the integrated regional planning approaches required to coordinate development activities across scales and sectors. (1) The project will contribute a modeling platform that can effectively couple sub-regional FEW systems together at the regional level and connect them to national and global socioeconomic and climatic forces in an internally consistent, computationally efficient, and decision-relevant manner to allow for comprehensive scenario exploration and uncertainty analysis. (2) The project will identify the institutional barriers to infusing nexus thinking in regional FEW systems planning by applying innovative institutional mapping and stakeholder engagement techniques to co-develop decision-relevant modeling advances. (3) The project will enhance the decision relevance of regional FEW systems modeling and planning scenarios by characterizing key uncertainties and aiding stakeholders in identifying and visualizing planning strategies that are robust to a wide array of future uncertainties. The institutional mapping in (2) will inform the nexus model construction in (1), and the efficient nexus model from (1) will be used to identify key dynamics and challenges to robustness in (3), which will be communicated via efficient visual analytics to in-country stakeholders in (2). Uruguay and Argentina will serve as learning laboratories to empirically explore these three advances because, despite their shared FEW systems challenges, the two countries differ with respect to key institutional, economic, climatic, and policy factors. These differences will allow alternative hypotheses to be tested regarding how best to design and use models to break down institutional barriers and facilitate joint institutional decision making in real-world contexts, as well as to demonstrate the transferability and generalizability of methodological advances.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

随着全球变化带来新的风险以及综合粮食、能源和水系统之间的潜在好处，对粮食、能源和水系统(FEWS)之间相互依存关系的科学理解日益重要。影响FEWS关系问题的许多重要决定都是由区域决策者做出的。然而，区域FEWS规划也受到国家和全球动态的影响，包括社会经济和技术变化、国际贸易动态、气候变化以及解决经济增长和可持续发展目标等社会优先事项的国家努力。国家实现这些更广泛的社会目标的能力反过来又受到区域决策的强烈影响。该项目开发了一种新的综合分析方法，考虑了食品、能源和水系统之间的相互联系，以改进区域FEWS规划。这项研究确保了区域规划情景与国家和全球趋势的一致性，同时也考虑了综合规划的体制障碍。该项目的重点是在阿根廷和乌拉圭的河流流域进行综合FEWS规划。这些地点是开发这一新方法的理想试验台，因为它们通过农产品贸易实现了强大的区域与全球连通性，机构结构多样化，以及从可持续发展目标到气候适应等影响深远的政策的组合。这项研究将直接惠及美国的国家利益，因为拉丁美洲的可持续发展促进了农业和能源产品国际市场的稳定。三个主要的科学问题指导着这项研究：(1)什么分析方法可以在区域范围内应用，以便不仅在少数几个系统之间耦合，而且以计算效率、数据效率和决策相关的方式应用于更广泛的国家和全球动态？(2)哪些制度障碍限制了在区域范围内采用少数系统规划，以及如何设计分析工具并将其整合到机构过程中以克服这些障碍？(3)如何最有效地表征和可视化影响区域少数系统决策过程的不确定性，以提高少数系统规划的稳健性？为回答这些问题而开发的概括性见解和分析工具包将促进国际和美国更强劲和可持续的经济增长，并将可转移到包括美国在内的其他地方。这项研究的总体目标是设计和使用模型，以打破体制障碍，促进食品、能源和水部门的联合体制决策。该项目将推动三项科学进步，促进采用协调各规模和各部门发展活动所需的综合区域规划办法。(1)该项目将提供一个建模平台，能够在区域一级有效地将几个分区域系统耦合在一起，并以内部一致、计算高效和与决策相关的方式将它们与国家和全球社会经济和气候力量联系起来，以便进行全面的情景探索和不确定性分析。(2)该项目将通过应用创新的机构绘图和利益攸关方参与技术，共同开发与决策相关的建模进展，确定在区域几个系统规划中灌输联系思维的体制障碍。(3)该项目将通过确定主要不确定因素的特征，并协助利益攸关方确定和可视化对未来各种不确定因素具有强大生命力的规划战略，从而提高区域少数系统建模和规划情景的决策相关性。(2)中的机构映射将为(1)中的关联模型构建提供信息，(1)中的有效关联模型将用于确定(3)中的关键动态和稳健性挑战，并将通过高效的视觉分析向(2)中的国内利益攸关方传达。乌拉圭和阿根廷将作为学习实验室，从经验上探索这三个进步，因为尽管这两个国家共同面临的系统挑战很少，但两国在关键的体制、经济、气候和政策因素方面存在差异。这些不同之处将允许测试替代假设，即如何最好地设计和使用模型，以在现实世界中打破体制障碍和促进联合机构决策，并展示方法进步的可转移性和普遍性。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

A comparison of Eulerian and semi-Lagrangian approaches for modeling stream water quality

欧拉和半拉格朗日方法对溪流水质建模的比较

• DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2023.2294449
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: International Journal of River Basin Management
• 影响因子: 2.5
• 作者: Sulis, A.;Wild, T.B.;Loucks, D.P.
• 通讯作者: Loucks, D.P.

Geophysical Constraints on Decarbonized Systems—Building Spatio-Temporal Uncertainties into Future Electricity Grid Planning

脱碳系统的地球物理约束——将时空不确定性纳入未来电网规划

• DOI: 10.1007/s40518-023-00229-y
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Current Sustainable/Renewable Energy Reports
• 作者: Chowdhury, AFM Kamal;Wild, Thomas;Deshmukh, Ranjit;Iyer, Gokul;Galelli, Stefano
• 通讯作者: Galelli, Stefano

Using Media Framing to Explore the Food-Energy-Water Nexus: The Case of the Rio Negro Basin in Uruguay

利用媒体框架探索食物-能源-水关系：乌拉圭里奥内格罗盆地案例

• DOI: 10.1080/08941920.2023.2286646
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Society & Natural Resources
• 影响因子: 2.5
• 作者: Ojeda-Matos, Glorynel;Jones-Crank, J. Leah;Roque, Anaís Delilah;White, Dave D.
• 通讯作者: White, Dave D.

plutus: An R package to calculate electricity investments and stranded assets from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)

plutus：一个 R 包，用于根据全球变化分析模型 (GCAM) 计算电力投资和搁浅资产

• DOI: 10.21105/joss.03212
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Open Source Software
• 作者: Zhao, Mengqi;Binsted, Matthew;Wild, Thomas;Khan, Zarrar;Yarlagadda, Brinda;Iyer, Gokul;Vernon, Chris;Patel, Pralit;da Silva, Silvia;Calvin, Katherine
• 通讯作者: Calvin, Katherine

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

• DOI: 10.1029/2022ef002764
• 发表时间: 2022-08
• 期刊: Earth's Future
• 作者: A. Birnbaum;J. Lamontagne;T. Wild;F. Dolan;B. Yarlagadda