HBCU-Excellence in Research: Long-term Trends in Data from Hampton University (HU)-led Satellite Experiments

HBCU-卓越研究：汉普顿大学 (HU) 主导的卫星实验数据的长期趋势

• 批准号: 1901126
• 负责人: James Russell
• 金额: $ 50万
• 依托单位: Hampton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-07-15 至 2023-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1901126&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: HBCU; Excellence; Research; Long; term

The two major research objectives of this EIS award are to study through the application of comprehensive analysis approaches a merged satellite data base of temperatures within the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT)region extending over 27 years to detect possible long-term cooling trends and also to assess possible solar cycle dependence. Two potential processes driving the long-term variability: (1) dynamical forcing and (2) direct solar forcing, would be examined by comparisons with results obtained using a state-of-the-art general global circulation model - the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model(WACCM. The satellite data to be used for this study includes MLT temperature observations from HALOE, SABER, MLS and SOFIE that would be merged to generate the extended database. The award would also include support of research aimed at achieving a theoretical understanding of long-term trends and solar cycle variations in the MLT region by using WACCM to compare with and to help diagnose the observed trends and solar cycle variations in the satellite data. Because of the possible anthropogenic and solar origin of the decadal changes in the MLT temperatures, the funded research would include a comprehensive modeling analysis of sources from which trends and solar cycle variations might originate, e.g., ozone chemistry, radiative cooling and lower atmosphere wave forcing and related MLT dynamics. This research would help enhance the assessment of changes in the upper atmosphere relative to the WACCM model predictions. The findings obtained in this research are expected to help inform policy decisions on orbital lifetimes and potential debris mitigation strategies. In addition to these benefits to society, this award would also support the research of a graduate student at a HBCU institution as well as introducing six undergraduates (over three years) to research activities. This award would support the first comprehensive study of long-term MLT temperature trends using a 27-year global scale data record constructed from the combined measurements made by four satellite instruments on different platforms. This merger would be accompanied with a validation analysis that would test the success of the merger of these separate databases. The achievements of the award research objectives would significantly advance knowledge of mesosphere decadal changes driven by possible anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases as well as solar irradiance variability and lower atmosphere dynamical forcing. These results would form a base supporting the development of a much better understanding of the variability and structure of the MLT region and a better capability to predict the future mesosphere state. The outcome of funding this award research would provide clarity as to whether the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) within the Earth's atmosphere would eventually lead to a substantial global cooling of the ionosphere-thermosphere-mesosphere (ITM) region by 10 to 50 K for doubled CO2 concentrations from pre-industrial times. The implications of this cooling go far beyond the substantial modification of the Earth's upper atmosphere. A significant MLT cooling trend is known to indicate corresponding thermosphere density decrease at orbital altitudes, reducing aerodynamic drag on all orbiting assets, from the International Space Station to orbital debris, and thus leads to higher probabilities of collisions over time, given the proliferation of orbital assets and especially orbital debris.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该 EIS 奖项的两个主要研究目标是通过应用综合分析方法来研究长达 27 年的中层和低热层 (MLT) 区域温度合并卫星数据库，以检测可能的长期冷却趋势，并评估可能的太阳周期依赖性。 驱动长期变化的两个潜在过程：(1) 动力强迫和 (2) 直接太阳强迫，将通过与使用最先进的一般全球环流模型 - 全大气社区气候模型 (WACCM) 获得的结果进行比较来进行检查。本研究使用的卫星数据包括来自 HALOE、SABRE、MLS 和 SOFIE 的 MLT 温度观测数据，这些数据将被合并以生成扩展数据库。 还将包括支持旨在通过使用 WACCM 与卫星数据中观测到的趋势和太阳周期变化进行比较并帮助诊断，从而从理论上理解 MLT 区域的长期趋势和太阳周期变化的研究。由于 MLT 温度的年代际变化可能是人为和太阳造成的，因此资助的研究将包括对来源的全面建模分析，其中趋势和 太阳周期变化可能源于臭氧化学、辐射冷却和低层大气波强迫以及相关的 MLT 动力学。这项研究将有助于加强对高层大气相对于 WACCM 模型预测变化的评估。这项研究获得的结果预计将有助于为有关轨道寿命和潜在碎片缓解策略的政策决策提供信息。除了这些对社会的好处外，该奖项还将支持以下领域的研究： HBCU 机构的研究生，以及介绍六名本科生（三年以上）参与研究活动。该奖项将支持首次对长期 MLT 温度趋势进行全面研究，该研究使用 27 年的全球规模数据记录，该数据记录是由四个卫星仪器在不同平台上进行的组合测量构建的。这次合并将伴随着验证分析，以测试这些单独数据库的合并是否成功。获奖研究成果 目标将大大增进对人为温室气体可能增加以及太阳辐照度变化和较低大气动力强迫驱动的中层十年变化的了解。这些结果将为更好地了解 MLT 区域的变化和结构以及更好地预测未来中间层状态的能力奠定基础。资助该奖项研究的结果将清楚地表明碳浓度的增加是否 地球大气层中的二氧化碳 (CO2) 最终将导致全球电离层-热层-中间层 (ITM) 区域大幅降温 10 至 50 K，二氧化碳浓度比工业化前时期翻倍。这种冷却的影响远远超出了地球高层大气的实质性改变。 已知显着的 MLT 冷却趋势表明轨道上相应的热层密度下降 高度，减少从国际空间站到轨道碎片的所有轨道资产的空气动力阻力，从而随着时间的推移，由于轨道资产，特别是轨道碎片的扩散，导致碰撞的可能性更高。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Long-term trend and solar cycle in the middle atmosphere temperature revealed from merged HALOE and SABER datasets

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2020.105506
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Tao Li;J. Yue;J. Russell;Xi Zhang

Variability of Water Vapor in the Tropical Middle Atmosphere Observed From Satellites and Interpreted Using SD‐WACCM Simulations

从卫星观测到的热带中层大气中水蒸气的变化并使用 SD–WACCM 模拟进行解释

• DOI: 10.1029/2022jd036714
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: Yu, Wandi;Garcia, Rolando;Yue, Jia;Russell, James;Mlynczak, Martin
• 通讯作者: Mlynczak, Martin

Middle Atmosphere Temperature Trends in the Twentieth and Twenty‐First Centuries Simulated With the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)

• DOI: 10.1029/2019ja026909
• 发表时间: 2019-10
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
• 作者: R. Garcia;J. Yue;J. Russell

Increasing Water Vapor in the Stratosphere and Mesosphere After 2002

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084973
• 发表时间: 2019-11
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: J. Yue;J. Russell;Q. Gan;Tao Wang;P. Rong;R. Garcia;M. Mlynczak