HBCU-Excellence in Research: Long-term Trends in Data from Hampton University (HU)-led Satellite Experiments

HBCU-卓越研究：汉普顿大学 (HU) 主导的卫星实验数据的长期趋势

• 批准号: 1901126
• 负责人: James Russell
• 金额: $ 50万
• 依托单位: Hampton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-07-15 至 2023-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1901126&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: HBCU; Excellence; Research; Long; term

The two major research objectives of this EIS award are to study through the application of comprehensive analysis approaches a merged satellite data base of temperatures within the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT)region extending over 27 years to detect possible long-term cooling trends and also to assess possible solar cycle dependence. Two potential processes driving the long-term variability: (1) dynamical forcing and (2) direct solar forcing, would be examined by comparisons with results obtained using a state-of-the-art general global circulation model - the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model(WACCM. The satellite data to be used for this study includes MLT temperature observations from HALOE, SABER, MLS and SOFIE that would be merged to generate the extended database. The award would also include support of research aimed at achieving a theoretical understanding of long-term trends and solar cycle variations in the MLT region by using WACCM to compare with and to help diagnose the observed trends and solar cycle variations in the satellite data. Because of the possible anthropogenic and solar origin of the decadal changes in the MLT temperatures, the funded research would include a comprehensive modeling analysis of sources from which trends and solar cycle variations might originate, e.g., ozone chemistry, radiative cooling and lower atmosphere wave forcing and related MLT dynamics. This research would help enhance the assessment of changes in the upper atmosphere relative to the WACCM model predictions. The findings obtained in this research are expected to help inform policy decisions on orbital lifetimes and potential debris mitigation strategies. In addition to these benefits to society, this award would also support the research of a graduate student at a HBCU institution as well as introducing six undergraduates (over three years) to research activities. This award would support the first comprehensive study of long-term MLT temperature trends using a 27-year global scale data record constructed from the combined measurements made by four satellite instruments on different platforms. This merger would be accompanied with a validation analysis that would test the success of the merger of these separate databases. The achievements of the award research objectives would significantly advance knowledge of mesosphere decadal changes driven by possible anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases as well as solar irradiance variability and lower atmosphere dynamical forcing. These results would form a base supporting the development of a much better understanding of the variability and structure of the MLT region and a better capability to predict the future mesosphere state. The outcome of funding this award research would provide clarity as to whether the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) within the Earth's atmosphere would eventually lead to a substantial global cooling of the ionosphere-thermosphere-mesosphere (ITM) region by 10 to 50 K for doubled CO2 concentrations from pre-industrial times. The implications of this cooling go far beyond the substantial modification of the Earth's upper atmosphere. A significant MLT cooling trend is known to indicate corresponding thermosphere density decrease at orbital altitudes, reducing aerodynamic drag on all orbiting assets, from the International Space Station to orbital debris, and thus leads to higher probabilities of collisions over time, given the proliferation of orbital assets and especially orbital debris.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该EIS项目的两个主要研究目标是，通过应用综合分析方法，研究中间层和低层热层（MLT）区域27年来的温度合并卫星数据库，以探测可能的长期冷却趋势，并评估可能的太阳周期依赖性。驱动长期变率的两个潜在过程：(1)动力强迫和(2)太阳直接强迫，将通过与使用最先进的一般全球环流模式-全大气群落气候模式（WACCM）获得的结果进行比较来检验。本研究将使用的卫星数据包括来自HALOE、SABER、MLS和sofe的MLT温度观测数据，这些数据将被合并以产生扩展数据库。该合同还将包括支持研究，目的是利用WACCM比较和帮助诊断卫星数据中观测到的趋势和太阳周期变化，从而从理论上了解MLT区域的长期趋势和太阳周期变化。由于温带温度的年代际变化可能是人为的和太阳的原因造成的，资助的研究将包括对趋势和太阳周期变化可能产生的来源进行全面的模拟分析，例如臭氧化学、辐射冷却和低层大气波强迫以及相关的温带动力学。这项研究将有助于加强相对于WACCM模式预测的高层大气变化的评估。预计这项研究获得的结果将有助于为轨道寿命和潜在碎片缓减战略的政策决定提供信息。除了这些对社会的好处之外，该奖项还将支持一名HBCU机构的研究生的研究，并介绍六名本科生（三年以上）参加研究活动。该奖项将支持首次综合研究长期MLT温度趋势，该研究使用27年全球尺度数据记录，这些数据记录是由四个卫星仪器在不同平台上进行的联合测量构建的。此合并将伴随着验证分析，该分析将测试这些独立数据库的合并是否成功。该奖项研究目标的成果将大大促进对可能的人为温室气体增加、太阳辐照度变率和低层大气动力强迫驱动的中间层年代际变化的认识。这些结果将为更好地理解MLT区域的变异性和结构以及更好地预测未来中间层状态奠定基础。资助这项获奖研究的结果将使人们清楚地了解，地球大气中二氧化碳（CO2）浓度的增加是否最终会导致电离层-热层-中间层（ITM）区域的全球大幅降温10至50 K，二氧化碳浓度是工业化前时代的两倍。这种冷却的影响远远超出了地球上层大气的实质性变化。已知一个显著的MLT冷却趋势表明，相应的热层密度在轨道高度下降，减少了从国际空间站到轨道碎片的所有轨道资产的空气动力阻力，因此，考虑到轨道资产特别是轨道碎片的扩散，随着时间的推移，导致更高的碰撞概率。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Long-term trend and solar cycle in the middle atmosphere temperature revealed from merged HALOE and SABER datasets

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2020.105506
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Tao Li;J. Yue;J. Russell;Xi Zhang

Variability of Water Vapor in the Tropical Middle Atmosphere Observed From Satellites and Interpreted Using SD‐WACCM Simulations

从卫星观测到的热带中层大气中水蒸气的变化并使用 SD–WACCM 模拟进行解释

• DOI: 10.1029/2022jd036714
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: Yu, Wandi;Garcia, Rolando;Yue, Jia;Russell, James;Mlynczak, Martin
• 通讯作者: Mlynczak, Martin

Middle Atmosphere Temperature Trends in the Twentieth and Twenty‐First Centuries Simulated With the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)

• DOI: 10.1029/2019ja026909
• 发表时间: 2019-10
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
• 作者: R. Garcia;J. Yue;J. Russell

Increasing Water Vapor in the Stratosphere and Mesosphere After 2002

• DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084973
• 发表时间: 2019-11
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: J. Yue;J. Russell;Q. Gan;Tao Wang;P. Rong;R. Garcia;M. Mlynczak