The Role of Individual and Social Networks in the Formation and Change of Beliefs

人类思维的一个独特特征是信仰的发展和维持。人们对什么是真的或假的，以及世界上是否有东西存在有着持久的感觉。信仰是做人意义的核心。人类信仰的本质--它们的结构、功能和变化--几十年来一直是许多科学领域研究的主题。过去的理论和研究以两种截然不同的方式处理这个问题。在行为科学和认知科学中，最常见的一种是理解一个人的信念网络是如何相互联系的。另一种在社会科学和经济学中最常见的方法是了解一个人的信念与其社交网络中其他人的信念之间的关系。所有这些理解信仰本质的努力都受到重要的、更广泛的影响的推动。例如，公共卫生运动旨在改变信仰，并最终改变行为，为社会的健康和福利服务。这个项目的目的是开发一个新的理论框架，将个人和社会层面上对信仰网络的理解结合在一起。一个预期的结果是更好地理解为什么一些信念抗拒改变，而另一些则不是。这个项目采用网络的视角来研究为什么一些信念比其他信念更抗拒改变。借鉴心理学、社会学、经济学、计算机科学、统计物理学等学科知识，建立了统一的理论框架。该模型的前提是，信念的网络动态在个人和社会层面遵循类似的原则--人们被激励减少他们自己的信念网络和他们的社会网络中的不和谐(能量)。该模型提供了关于个人和社会层面的信仰网络如何共同影响信仰对变化的抵抗力的新颖预测。该模型在分四波进行的纵向调查中进行了测试，从而可以评估信念随时间的动态变化。在第三波之前引入了一种实验操作，允许评估潜在的干预措施。数据分析依赖于高级统计模型，包括统计物理建模、网络建模、结构方程建模和多水平建模。该项目将通过在一个单一的理论框架中整合以前不相关的关于个人和社会信仰的文献，并开发和测试关于个人和社会网络结构对信仰随时间变化的联合影响的定性和定量预测，来促进基础知识的发展。这项研究将有助于为旨在增加普通民众科学知识的教育干预措施的设计提供知识基础。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

One unique feature of human thought is the development and maintenance of beliefs. People carry with them an enduring sense of what is true or false, and whether or not things exist in the world. Beliefs are central to what it means to be human. The nature of human beliefs -- their structure, function, and change -- has been the subject of study across many fields of science over many decades. Past theories and research have approached the subject in two distinct ways. One, most common in the behavioral and cognitive sciences, is to understand how a single person's network of beliefs relate to one another. Another, most common in the social and economic sciences, is to understand how one person's beliefs are related to the beliefs of other people in one's social network. All of these efforts to understand the nature of beliefs are motivated by important broader impacts. For example, public health campaigns aim to change beliefs, and ultimately behaviors, in service of the health and welfare of society. The aim of this project is to develop a new theoretical framework that integrates understanding of belief networks at both the individual and social levels. One expected outcome is a better understanding of why some beliefs are resistant to change while others are not.This project adopts a network perspective to study why some beliefs are more resistant to change than others. Drawing from psychology, sociology, economics, computer science, and statistical physics, a unifying theoretical framework is developed. The premise of the model is that network dynamics of beliefs follow similar principles at the individual and at the social level -- that people are motivated to reduce dissonance (energy) both in their own belief network and in their social networks. The model provides novel predictions about how networks of beliefs on individual and social levels jointly affect belief's resistance to change. The model is tested in a longitudinal survey conducted in four waves, allowing an assessment of belief dynamics over time. An experimental manipulation is introduced before the third wave, allowing for the assessment of potential interventions. The data analyses rely on advanced statistical models including statistical physics modeling, network modeling, structural equation modeling, and multilevel modeling. The project will advance basic knowledge by integrating previously disconnected literatures on individual and social beliefs in a single theoretical framework, and developing and testing qualitative and quantitative predictions about the joint effects of individual and social network structures on belief change over time. The research will contribute to a foundation of knowledge that informs the design of educational interventions aimed at increasing scientific knowledge in the general population.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.