Collaborative Research: Financial Network Reactions to Regulations and Interventions

摘要政府干预和监管在金融部门运作中的作用对经济具有重要意义。本项目探讨银行监管和政府干预如何影响银行之间的互动。该项目利用历史和现代数据源分析在不断变化的监管政策环境下银行间关系的变化。该项目认为，银行网络对政府支持的预期进行调整，使银行体系更加依赖政府支持，更容易发生不太可能发生的灾难性事件。其次，该项目考察了不透明与透明度的影响，考虑到在不透明的情况下运作的银行在困难时期相互支持，而不会扰乱更广泛的经济和制造恐慌。最后，研究着眼于中央清算对手方的影响。中央清算对手方（CCP）是承担交易对手风险并为交易对手提供清算和结算服务的机构。本研究探讨了衍生品的中央清算如何加强银行之间的协调，并防止可能因清算义务的协调失败而产生的危机。本项目探讨了几个关于银行系统和中央清算政策的研究问题。第一个问题探讨了公共流动性供应如何影响银行相互关联的方式。本项目构建了一个关于联邦储备系统（FED）提供公共流动性影响的理论，并利用1913年美联储成立的历史数据对该理论的预测进行检验。本研究表明，美联储提供的公共流动性间接创造了美国第一个影子银行部门，因此，公共流动性的意外收缩可能引发系统性风险。第二个研究问题探讨了最近强制衍生品中央清算的法规，以及这些法规如何影响不同银行的风险敞口和相互联系。本研究构建了一个衍生品的理论模型，强调了权衡。一方面，ccp有加强银行间协调的好处。另一方面，ccp在一定程度上起到了交易所的作用，提高了市场透明度，减少了银行保险。本研究使用包括美国所有银行对所有其他金融和非金融机构的风险敞口在内的详细数据，探讨了这些权衡如何在银行网络的不同层中相互作用。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

AbstractThe role of government interventions and regulations in the operation of the financial sector has important implications for the economy. This project explores how banking regulations and government interventions affect the interaction of banks. The project uses historical and modern data sources to analyze the changes in interbank relations in changing regulatory policy environments. The project considers that a banking network adjusts to the anticipation of government support in ways that makes the banking system more reliant on government support and more prone to less likely catastrophic events. Second, the project looks at the effects of opacity versus transparency by considering that banks operating with opacity support each other at times of distress without disturbing the broader economy and creating panics. Finally, the research looks at the implications of central clearing counterparties. Central clearing counterparties (CCP) are institutions that take counterparty risk to transactions and provide clearing and settlement services for them. This research explores how central clearing of derivatives enhances coordination among banks and prevents crises which can arise as coordination failures on clearing obligations.This project explores several research questions on the banking system and central clearing policies. First question explores how public liquidity provision affects the way banks relate to each other. The project constructs a theory on the effects of the public liquidity provisions by the Federal Reserve System (FED) and test the predictions of this theory utilizing historical data on the establishment of the FED in 1913. This research indicates that public liquidity provision by the FED indirectly creates the first shadow banking sector in the U.S., so that an unexpected contraction in public liquidity can induce systemic risk. Second research question explores recent regulations that mandate central clearing of derivatives and how these regulations affect the exposure and interconnections of different banks. This research constructs a theoretical model of derivatives which highlights a tradeoff. On the one hand, CCPs have the benefit of enhancing coordination across banks. On the other hand, CCPs operate partly as an exchange that improves market transparency, reducing bank insurance. Using detailed data that includes exposures of all banks in the U.S. to all other financial and non-financial institutions, this research explores how these tradeoffs interact in different layers of the banking network.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.