CNH2-L: Linkages and Interactions Between Urban Food Security and Rural Agricultural Systems

本研究探讨了城市粮食安全与农村农业生产之间的联系和相互作用。具体而言，该项目评估了环境变化对农村农业生产的影响及其对城市粮食安全的影响，进而评估了城市人口增长如何影响通过粮食贸易和其他流动衡量的对当地和区域农业生产的需求。由于人口增长、粮食消费模式性质的变化以及地方和区域粮食生产对环境变化的脆弱性，在满足城市粮食需求方面面临着未来的挑战。全球化以及粮食和商品的国际流动和贸易是城市地区如何满足未来粮食需求的关键方面。但城市地区与国际、区域和当地粮食系统的连通性不同程度。鉴于城市化的复杂模式及其对全球、区域和地方粮食供应链的不同参与，需要进行新的研究，以了解哪种类型的城市最容易受到当地和区域作物生产的影响，以及哪种类型的城市群可以通过从遥远地区进口粮食来减轻这些影响。该项目对维持未来城市粮食安全的挑战以及不同社会环境条件下地方、区域和全球粮食流动如何影响城市粮食安全产生了新的和变革性的理解。这对国家安全问题有影响，对经济发展也有影响。该项目包括教育和利益相关者的参与，并传播学术和政策相关材料。该项目采用一种新颖的空间网络方法，通过分析近期和预计的城市粮食需求情景下的农村粮食生产，对区域内和国际边界的粮食流动进行建模。这一空间分析与在不同地理背景下不同规模的城市地区收集的住户调查数据相关联，以了解农村农业生产的冲击如何影响城市粮食流动。家庭层面的信息与粮食需求和生产信息以及价格信息相关联。虽然已有大量研究关注农村粮食不安全的驱动因素和结果，但了解城市粮食不安全的驱动因素的工作却很少。此外，大多数城市食品安全研究都集中在大城市地区，主要是灵长类城市，尽管现实是大量城市居民生活在小型到中等规模的城市地区。该项目将在综合社会环境系统研究方面取得重要的理论进展，并将通过模拟城乡反馈和一体化，以及通过发展理解日益重要的小到中等城市粮食安全方面的方法，在方法上作出贡献。这项研究将在各种环境下进行，但研究结果的应用与许多正在经历社会环境变化的城市地区以及这种变化如何影响城市粮食安全有关。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research investigates the linkages and interactions between urban food security and rural agricultural production. Specifically, the project evaluates the impacts of environmental variability on rural agricultural production and how this affects urban food security, and, in turn, how urban population growth affects the demand for local and regional agricultural production, as measured through food trade and other flows. Future challenges lie ahead in terms of meeting urban food demand due to population growth, the changing nature of food consumption patterns, and the vulnerability of both local and regional food production to environmental variability. Globalization and international flows and trade of food and commodities are key aspects of how urban areas will meet future food demand. But urban areas exhibit different levels of connectivity to international, regional, and local food systems. Given complex patterns of urbanization and their differential engagement with global, regional, and local food supply chains, new research is needed to understand what types of urban places are most vulnerable to impacts of local and regional crop production, and what type of urban agglomerations can mitigate those impacts through food imports from distant areas. This project produces a new and transformative understanding of the challenges of maintaining future urban food security and how local, regional, and global food flows affect urban food security under different socio-environmental conditions. This has implications for national security issues and is of concern for economic development. The project includes educational and stakeholder engagement and disseminates academic and policy relevant materials.The project uses a novel spatial network approach to model the flow of food within regions and across international borders by analyzing rural food production under recent and projected urban food demand scenarios. This spatial analysis is linked to household survey data collected in urban areas of different sizes and within different geographic contexts to understand how shocks in rural agricultural production affect urban food flows. Household level information is linked to food demand and production information, as well as pricing information. While there has been a considerable amount of research focusing on the drivers and outcomes of rural food insecurity, less work has been done to understand the drivers of urban food insecurity. Additionally, most urban food security research has focused on large metropolitan areas, mostly primate cities, despite the reality that significant numbers of urban residents live in small to moderate sized urban places. This project will make important theoretical advancements in integrated socio-environmental systems research and will make methodological contributions by modelling urban-rural feedbacks and integration and by developing ways of understanding the increasingly important small-to-moderate urban dimension of food security. The research will be conducted in a variety of settings, but the application of the findings is relevant to many urban areas undergoing socio-environmental change, and how this impacts urban food security.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.