MSA: Spatio-temporal scaling of avian diversity change

生物多样性-从基因到物种，再到生态系统的所有生命形式的多样性-为人类提供了许多功能，生物多样性的丧失是我们这个时代最紧迫的环境问题之一。然而，生物多样性变化的证据仍然有限，而且不一致。这阻碍了对未来生态系统和人类福祉变化后果的预测，并进一步阻碍了保护行动。关于生物多样性状况的相互矛盾的报告主要是由于没有认识到生物多样性变化是复杂的，发生在许多不同的规模上。例如，如果在当地进行测量，生物多样性可能不会随着时间的推移而发生变化，因为新物种可以在其他物种离开或在当地灭绝时进入一个地区。全球规模的下降是预料之中的，因为全球性的排斥不能被殖民化所抵消。此外，生物多样性的定义和衡量的指标可能会影响其变化的结论。例如，即使某一地点的物种数量保持不变-给人的印象是没有净变化-但如果离开该地点的物种提供特别独特的生态功能，功能和特征的多样性（如饮食类型）可能会下降。为了解决生物多样性变化证据的差异，研究人员将评估在北美多个空间和时间尺度上收集的大量鸟类多样性数据库。该项目还将量化气候变化在每个尺度上对生物多样性变化的作用。该项目的结果可用于协助资源管理决策，并为保护任务提供信息。该项目将为扩大科学参与提供机会，让来自STEM领域代表性不足的本科生和博士后研究人员参与进来。该项目将利用从多个来源收集的不同时空尺度的数据：国家生态观测网络，eBird，繁殖鸟类调查和圣诞鸟类计数。最先进的建模技术将用于整合这些不同类型的数据，并以从地方到大陆的空间分辨率和从一周到十年的时间间隔开发动态物种丰度分布。通过将物种的丰度分布叠加在一起，将收集分类、功能和特征以及系统发育多样性的动态估计。该项目将量化这些生物多样性方面在50年期间的变化，并使用新的跨尺度建模技术来确定这种变化的空间和时间尺度依赖性以及气候变化的影响。通过提供北美鸟类区系多方面鸟类多样性变化的时空尺度的第一个经验性评估，这些努力将有助于解决正在进行的关于生物多样性变化幅度的辩论。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为是值得支持的，通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估。

Biodiversity -- the variety of all forms of life, from genes to species, to ecosystems -- serves many functions to humans and its loss is one of the most pressing environmental issues of our time. Evidence of biodiversity change, however, remains limited and inconsistent. This impedes predictions for the consequences of change to future ecosystems and human well-being, and further hinders conservation actions. Contradictory reports on the state of biodiversity result largely from a failure to recognize that biodiversity change is complex and takes place across many different scales. For example, if measured at local sites, biodiversity might show no change through time because new species can enter a region as others leave or go locally extinct. Declines at the global scale are expected because global extinctions cannot be offset by colonizations. Furthermore, the metrics by which biodiversity is defined and measured can affect conclusions regarding its change. For example, even if species counts remain constant at a given site -- giving the impression of no net change -- the diversity of functions and traits (such as, diet type) might decline if species leaving the site provided particularly unique ecological functions. To address disparities in evidence for biodiversity change, the researchers will evaluate massive databases of bird diversity collected across multiple spatial and temporal scales in North America. The project also will quantify the role that climate change has played in biodiversity change at each of the scales. Results from the project can be used to assist resource management in decision-making and to inform conservation missions. The project will provide opportunities for broadening participation in science by involving undergraduate students and postdoctoral researchers from groups typically underrepresented in STEM.The project will leverage data collected at different spatial and temporal scales from a number of sources: The National Ecological Observatory Network, eBird, Breeding Bird Survey, and Christmas Bird Count. State-of-the-art modeling techniques will be used to integrate these different types of data and develop dynamic species' abundance distributions at spatial resolutions from local to continental, and temporal intervals from a week to a decade. By stacking species' abundance distributions together, dynamic estimates of taxonomic, functional and trait, and phylogenetic diversity will be collected. The project will quantify change in those biodiversity facets over the course of 50 years and use novel cross-scale modeling techniques to determine the spatial and temporal scale dependence of that change as well as the effects of climate change. By providing the first empirical assessment of spatiotemporal scaling of multi-faceted bird diversity change of the North American avifauna, these efforts will help resolve ongoing debates about the magnitude of biodiversity change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.