Interdisciplinary Workshop on 'Arctic Climate And Weather Extremes: Detection, Attribution, And Future Projection'

“北极气候和极端天气：检测、归因和未来预测”跨学科研讨会

• 批准号: 1934420
• 负责人: Emily Jack-Scott
• 金额: $ 4.93万
• 依托单位: Aspen Global Change Institute
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-01 至 2022-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1934420&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Interdisciplinary; Workshop; Arctic; Climate; Weather

The Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) will host a week-long interdisciplinary scientific workshop in Spring 2020 entitled "Arctic Climate and Weather Extremes: Detection, Attribution, and Future Projection". Participants will be tasked with the scientific objectives of a) providing improved insight into the fundamental processes of each climate system component involved in extreme events, b) synthesizing results to improve understanding of feedback processes across the climate system components, c) identifying existing key questions and knowledge gaps, and d) suggesting a way forward to improve our ability to predict and model extremes in the Arctic. To achieve these objectives, The PIs will employ AGCI's established workshop model to convene thirty data analysts, dynamicists, and modelers from the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice communities. Participants will include early career scientists, and individuals from diverse and underrepresented backgrounds. The trajectory of Arctic climate system change has exhibited highly nonlinear behavior, as manifested by the increased frequency of occurrence of extreme events superimposed on a long-term trend towards a warmer mean state. The most recent, striking extreme events include occurrences of record minima of sea ice extent in the summers of 2007, 2012, and 2016, and record maxima of surface air temperatures in the winters of 2015/2016 and 2017/2018. However, Arctic climate change studies have predominantly focused on the long-term changes or trends using monthly, seasonal, or annual mean data. But extreme events generally occur intermittently for periods from days to several months as outliers of the long-term trends. Even for the extreme events that occur across longer time periods, monthly or seasonal mean data may not be able to resolve the underlying physics supporting their rapid development. It therefore still remains unclear why these extreme events occur, what their multi-scale driving mechanisms are, and where the source of their predictability exists. This workshop seeks to address these critical knowledge gaps.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

白杨全球变化研究所（AGCI）将于2020年春季举办为期一周的跨学科科学研讨会，题为“北极气候和极端天气：检测，归因和未来预测”。与会者将负责实现以下科学目标：a）更好地了解极端事件所涉及的每个气候系统组成部分的基本过程，B）综合结果，以更好地了解气候系统组成部分的反馈过程，c）确定现有的关键问题和知识差距，d）提出改进北极极端事件预测和建模能力的方法。为了实现这些目标，PI将采用AGCI建立的研讨会模式，召集来自大气、海洋和海冰社区的30名数据分析师、动力学家和建模师。参与者将包括早期职业科学家，以及来自不同和代表性不足背景的个人。北极气候系统变化的轨迹表现出高度非线性的行为，表现为极端事件发生频率增加，加上平均状态变暖的长期趋势。最近，引人注目的极端事件包括2007年，2012年和2016年夏季海冰范围创纪录的最小值，以及2015/2016年和2017/2018年冬季地表气温创纪录的最大值。然而，北极气候变化研究主要集中在长期变化或趋势，使用月，季节或年度平均数据。但极端事件通常间歇性地发生，持续时间从几天到几个月不等，是长期趋势的异常值。即使对于发生在较长时间段内的极端事件，月度或季度平均数据也可能无法解决支持其快速发展的基本物理问题。因此，这些极端事件发生的原因、它们的多尺度驱动机制是什么以及它们的可预测性来源在哪里仍然不清楚。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。