ISN2: Mapping, Modeling, and Optimizing the Disruption of Illicit Gold Supply Chains in Peru

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This award will advance human health and well-being, contribute to national security, and advance science through a better understanding of illicit mineral supply chains and ways to disrupt them. Currently in Peru, a large portion of the gold exports are illegal, and other materials central to mining activities are also trafficked, including mercury, explosives, and equipment. However, there are no organized transactional records of illicit activities related to the gold supply chain in Peru, which presents a significant challenge in making decisions to combat them and results in the loss of billions of dollars every year. Furthermore, it is nearly impossible to address the conditions (e.g. child labor and human trafficking) that can be associated with these illicit supply networks and which often extend across international borders. Through an examination of the various networks within and outside of Peru that comprise and facilitate the illicit gold supply chain, this research will advance knowledge of the illicit gold supply chain in Peru and expand the methodological toolbox used to evaluate and understand mineral and other illicit supply chains globally. This project will also train STEM graduate students in interdisciplinary research methodologies and provide them with opportunities to engage in research with societal impacts. This research involves an interdisciplinary team of engineers, social scientists, and attorneys and employs a systems theory approach. Under this approach, the research will include qualitative analyses of legal documents and court cases, as well as ethnographic field work to build a systems dynamics model that captures the structure of the illicit gold supply chain, formalizes the connections among the systems components, and highlights the chains of causal links and feedback loops within the system. This analysis will be used to identify the common pathways of materials (i.e. gold, mercury, explosives) and people (i.e. miners, traders) in the illicit gold supply chain within Peru and across Peru's borders and will provide an indication of the criticalities and vulnerabilities within the system. Using the outputs of these analyses, a mathematical optimization model of the supply chain will be formulated, and a set of decisions will be prescribed to disrupt the illicit activities throughout the supply chain. A sensitivity analysis will be conducted to test the behavior of illicit activities under various disruption scenarios.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.