CoPe: Collaborative Research: EAGER: An analysis of the impacts of sea-level change related flooding on commuting patterns and neighborhood gentrification.

本研究调查了与海平面变化有关的潮汐洪水（“滋扰”洪水）如何影响通勤模式，以及这如何对沿海社区居民产生不同的影响。 由于地形和其他地理变量的变化，通勤模式在受滋扰性洪水影响的程度上各不相同。该项目通过考虑洪水如何影响就业机会，估计了与海平面变化有关的洪水对不同社会经济水平的社区的不同影响。研究人员将开发一个预测模型，以评估这种差异影响如何随着洪水的增加而演变。该项目开发的工具可以通过识别易受海平面变化相关洪水影响的路段、地点和人口群体，改善沿海城市居民的福利。这些工具将帮助城市确定哪些社区和商业区可能受到通勤障碍的影响，从而促进国家繁荣。虽然这个项目的重点是迈阿密，使用公开可用的数据和模型，确保该方法将服务于国家利益，很容易复制为其他美国municipalities.This项目包括五个活动，开发一种方法来预测如何从海平面变化相关的洪水影响交通模式，人口统计和沿海社区的经济活力的道路阻塞。第一项活动是分析验潮仪和高程数据，以确定过去十年来洪水增加是如何导致道路被淹的。第二种方法将这些数据与家庭和工作地点的位置信息以及旅行时间算法相结合，以估计洪水对通勤时间的影响。第三个项目在现有分析的基础上增加社会经济数据，以确定边缘化人口是否受到洪水的不成比例的影响。 第四项活动利用随时间推移而发生的变化，在道路障碍与工人住宅和目的地的空间分配之间建立关系。具体来说，该项目确定了通勤时间的调整如何改变社区的人口构成，以及这可能如何影响中产阶级化。这项研究还确定了作为就业来源的地区是否受到洪水风险的影响。第五项活动是前瞻性的，预测在当前和预测的人口水平下，与海平面变化相关的洪水的增加可能如何影响不同的人口群体。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research investigates how tidal flooding ("nuisance" flooding) related to sea-level change impacts commuting patterns and how this differentially affects residents of coastal communities. Commuting patterns vary in the extent to which they are affected by nuisance flooding because of variation in topography and other geographic variables. This project provides an estimate of the differential impact of sea-level change related flooding on communities with different socio-economic levels by considering how flooding impacts employment access. The investigators will develop a predictive model to assess how this differential impact might evolve as flooding increases. Tools developed in the project can improve the welfare of people living in coastal cities by identifying road segments, locales, and demographic groups vulnerable to sea-level change related flooding. The tools will advance national prosperity by helping cities determine which neighborhoods and business areas are likely to be impacted by impediments to commuters. Although this project focuses on Miami, use of publicly available data and models ensures that the approach will serve the national interest by being easily replicable for other U.S. municipalities.This project consists of five activities that develop a methodology for predicting how road obstruction from sea-level change related flooding affects commuting patterns, demographics, and the economic vitality of coastal communities. The first activity is the analysis of tidal gauge and elevation data to establish how increased flooding over the last decade contributes to road inundation. The second combines this data with home and workplace location information and travel time algorithms to estimate the effect of inundation on commuting times. The third adds socio-economic data to the existing analysis to determine whether marginalized populations have been disproportionately affected by flooding. The fourth activity takes advantage of changes over time to establish a relationship between road obstruction and the spatial allocation of workers' homes and destinations. Specifically, the project determines how adjustments in commuting times alter neighborhood demographic composition and how this may affect gentrification. The research also identifies whether areas that are sources of employment are affected by flood risk. The fifth activity is forward looking, projecting how increases in sea-level change related flooding are likely to affect different demographic groups under current and projected population levels.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.