CoPe: Collaborative Research: EAGER: An analysis of the impacts of sea-level change related flooding on commuting patterns and neighborhood gentrification.

本研究调查了与海平面变化相关的潮汐洪水（“讨厌的”洪水）如何影响通勤模式，以及这对沿海社区居民的不同影响。由于地形和其他地理因素的变化，通勤模式受滋扰性水浸的影响程度各不相同。该项目通过考虑洪水对就业机会的影响，估计了与海平面变化相关的洪水对不同社会经济水平社区的不同影响。研究人员将开发一个预测模型，以评估随着洪水的增加，这种不同的影响可能会如何演变。该项目开发的工具可以通过识别易受海平面变化相关洪水影响的路段、地点和人口群体，改善沿海城市居民的福利。这些工具将帮助城市确定哪些社区和商业区可能受到通勤障碍的影响，从而促进国家繁荣。虽然这个项目的重点是迈阿密，但使用公开可用的数据和模型确保了该方法将服务于国家利益，因为它很容易被美国其他城市复制。该项目包括五项活动，旨在开发一种方法，预测海平面变化导致的道路阻塞如何影响沿海社区的通勤模式、人口统计和经济活力。第一项活动是分析潮汐计和高程数据，以确定过去十年中不断增加的洪水是如何导致道路淹没的。第二种方法将这些数据与家庭和工作场所的位置信息以及旅行时间算法相结合，以估计洪水对通勤时间的影响。第三种方法将社会经济数据添加到现有的分析中，以确定边缘人口是否受到洪水的不成比例的影响。第四项活动利用随着时间的变化，建立道路障碍与工人住所和目的地的空间分配之间的关系。具体来说，该项目确定了通勤时间的调整如何改变社区人口构成，以及这可能如何影响士绅化。该研究还确定了作为就业来源的地区是否受到洪水风险的影响。第五项活动是前瞻性的，预测在当前和预计的人口水平下，与海平面变化有关的洪水增加可能如何影响不同的人口群体。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research investigates how tidal flooding ("nuisance" flooding) related to sea-level change impacts commuting patterns and how this differentially affects residents of coastal communities. Commuting patterns vary in the extent to which they are affected by nuisance flooding because of variation in topography and other geographic variables. This project provides an estimate of the differential impact of sea-level change related flooding on communities with different socio-economic levels by considering how flooding impacts employment access. The investigators will develop a predictive model to assess how this differential impact might evolve as flooding increases. Tools developed in the project can improve the welfare of people living in coastal cities by identifying road segments, locales, and demographic groups vulnerable to sea-level change related flooding. The tools will advance national prosperity by helping cities determine which neighborhoods and business areas are likely to be impacted by impediments to commuters. Although this project focuses on Miami, use of publicly available data and models ensures that the approach will serve the national interest by being easily replicable for other U.S. municipalities.This project consists of five activities that develop a methodology for predicting how road obstruction from sea-level change related flooding affects commuting patterns, demographics, and the economic vitality of coastal communities. The first activity is the analysis of tidal gauge and elevation data to establish how increased flooding over the last decade contributes to road inundation. The second combines this data with home and workplace location information and travel time algorithms to estimate the effect of inundation on commuting times. The third adds socio-economic data to the existing analysis to determine whether marginalized populations have been disproportionately affected by flooding. The fourth activity takes advantage of changes over time to establish a relationship between road obstruction and the spatial allocation of workers' homes and destinations. Specifically, the project determines how adjustments in commuting times alter neighborhood demographic composition and how this may affect gentrification. The research also identifies whether areas that are sources of employment are affected by flood risk. The fifth activity is forward looking, projecting how increases in sea-level change related flooding are likely to affect different demographic groups under current and projected population levels.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.