CoPe: Collaborative Research: EAGER: An analysis of the impacts of sea-level change related flooding on commuting patterns and neighborhood gentrification.

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This research investigates how tidal flooding ("nuisance" flooding) related to sea-level change impacts commuting patterns and how this differentially affects residents of coastal communities. Commuting patterns vary in the extent to which they are affected by nuisance flooding because of variation in topography and other geographic variables. This project provides an estimate of the differential impact of sea-level change related flooding on communities with different socio-economic levels by considering how flooding impacts employment access. The investigators will develop a predictive model to assess how this differential impact might evolve as flooding increases. Tools developed in the project can improve the welfare of people living in coastal cities by identifying road segments, locales, and demographic groups vulnerable to sea-level change related flooding. The tools will advance national prosperity by helping cities determine which neighborhoods and business areas are likely to be impacted by impediments to commuters. Although this project focuses on Miami, use of publicly available data and models ensures that the approach will serve the national interest by being easily replicable for other U.S. municipalities.This project consists of five activities that develop a methodology for predicting how road obstruction from sea-level change related flooding affects commuting patterns, demographics, and the economic vitality of coastal communities. The first activity is the analysis of tidal gauge and elevation data to establish how increased flooding over the last decade contributes to road inundation. The second combines this data with home and workplace location information and travel time algorithms to estimate the effect of inundation on commuting times. The third adds socio-economic data to the existing analysis to determine whether marginalized populations have been disproportionately affected by flooding. The fourth activity takes advantage of changes over time to establish a relationship between road obstruction and the spatial allocation of workers' homes and destinations. Specifically, the project determines how adjustments in commuting times alter neighborhood demographic composition and how this may affect gentrification. The research also identifies whether areas that are sources of employment are affected by flood risk. The fifth activity is forward looking, projecting how increases in sea-level change related flooding are likely to affect different demographic groups under current and projected population levels.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.