CoPe EAGER: Modeling the Social Ecology of Coastal Flood Risk

由于沿海城市的持续扩张和环境变异性的增加，预计未来沿海洪灾将进一步恶化。不幸的是，沿海地区的许多人缺乏避免在洪水风险地区生活和工作所需的资源，并且在洪水发生时经历了巨大的困难，发现在洪水事件后恢复住房，健康和重返工作岗位的能力极其困难。相比之下，富裕的城市地区通常受到更好的保护，恢复得更快，甚至在洪水事件后可能会有显着的改善。这引起了令人深感不安的关切，即海平面上升和更频繁、更严重的沿海洪水事件不仅会给沿海社区带来巨大的人力和财产损失，而且还可能加深不平等，扩大社会分裂，给贫困和边缘化社区带来长期负担。这种结果可能反过来创造有利于减少对政治制度的信任和加剧内乱的条件。该项目旨在更好地了解沿海洪水的影响如何在社会阶层之间变化，并确定建模工具和干预措施，包括基于社区的政策和管理选项，可用于减轻沿海洪水风险并限制负面后果的级联。这项工作得出的模型可以为管理沿海洪水风险的政策辩论提供信息，有可能使脆弱社区能够参与更有效和公平的洪水规划和管理，该项目开发和测试了一个知识平台和行动框架，将精细分辨率洪水建模与社会学相结合，经济不平等分析，以评估家庭和社区层面的快速和缓慢发生的沿海洪水风险和脆弱性，重点是社会阶层之间的影响分布。进一步的分析评估了对社区内部和社区之间治理的影响。试点研究集中在加州两个洪水风险高的地区：洛杉矶大都会区和萨克拉门托-圣华金三角洲地区。这项研究的目标是评估与脆弱和差异化社区共同开发的洪水可视化工具在多大程度上可以确定公平，负担得起的，特定地点的干预措施，这些干预措施可以减轻洪水风险并限制负面的社会后果，包括对穷人的长期负担，有利于富人的政治结果以及有利于内乱的条件。该研究为理解和评估洪水风险与社会经济不平等之间的动态关系开发了一个新的定量框架。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Coastal flooding is projected to worsen in the future due to a combination of continued expansion of coastal cities and increasing environmental variability. Unfortunately, many people in coastal areas lack the resources needed to avoid living and working in areas at risk of flooding, and experience great hardships when flooding occurs, finding it extremely difficult to recover their housing, health, and ability to return to work after flood events. In contrast, affluent urban areas are typically better protected, recover more quickly, and may even experience significant improvements after a flood event. This raises a deeply alarming concern that rising sea levels and more frequent and intense coastal flood events will not only impose enormous human and property costs on coastal communities, but might also deepen inequality, amplify social divisions and place long-term burdens on poor and marginalized communities. Such outcomes could in turn create conditions conducive to less trust in the political system and higher levels of civil unrest. This project seeks to better understand how the impacts of coastal flooding vary across social strata and identifies modeling tools and interventions, including community-based, policy and management options, that can be applied to mitigate coastal flood risks and constrain the cascade of negative outcomes. The work derives models that can inform policy debates over managing coastal flood risk, has the potential to empower vulnerable communities to engage in more effective and equitable flood planning and management, and expands workforce capacity in convergence approaches.This project develops and tests a knowledge platform and action framework that integrates fine-resolution flood modeling with socio-economic inequality analysis to assess fast and slow onset coastal flood risks and vulnerabilities at the household and community levels, with an emphasis on the distribution of impacts across social strata. Further analysis assesses implications for governance within and across communities. Pilot research focuses on two regions of California with high risks of flooding: the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Region. The goal of this research is to assess the extent to which flood visualization tools co-developed with vulnerable and differentiated communities can identify fair, affordable, site specific interventions that can mitigate flood risk and constrain negative social outcomes including long-term burdens on the poor, political outcomes that favor the rich, and conditions conducive to civil unrest. The research develops a novel quantitative framework for understanding and assessing the dynamic relationship between flood risk and socio-economic inequality.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.