CoPe EAGER: Modeling the Social Ecology of Coastal Flood Risk

CoPe EAGER：模拟沿海洪水风险的社会生态

• 批准号: 1940171
• 负责人: Richard Matthew
• 金额: $ 29.99万
• 依托单位: University of California-Irvine
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-01 至 2022-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1940171&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CoPe; EAGER; Modeling; Social; Ecology

Coastal flooding is projected to worsen in the future due to a combination of continued expansion of coastal cities and increasing environmental variability. Unfortunately, many people in coastal areas lack the resources needed to avoid living and working in areas at risk of flooding, and experience great hardships when flooding occurs, finding it extremely difficult to recover their housing, health, and ability to return to work after flood events. In contrast, affluent urban areas are typically better protected, recover more quickly, and may even experience significant improvements after a flood event. This raises a deeply alarming concern that rising sea levels and more frequent and intense coastal flood events will not only impose enormous human and property costs on coastal communities, but might also deepen inequality, amplify social divisions and place long-term burdens on poor and marginalized communities. Such outcomes could in turn create conditions conducive to less trust in the political system and higher levels of civil unrest. This project seeks to better understand how the impacts of coastal flooding vary across social strata and identifies modeling tools and interventions, including community-based, policy and management options, that can be applied to mitigate coastal flood risks and constrain the cascade of negative outcomes. The work derives models that can inform policy debates over managing coastal flood risk, has the potential to empower vulnerable communities to engage in more effective and equitable flood planning and management, and expands workforce capacity in convergence approaches.This project develops and tests a knowledge platform and action framework that integrates fine-resolution flood modeling with socio-economic inequality analysis to assess fast and slow onset coastal flood risks and vulnerabilities at the household and community levels, with an emphasis on the distribution of impacts across social strata. Further analysis assesses implications for governance within and across communities. Pilot research focuses on two regions of California with high risks of flooding: the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Region. The goal of this research is to assess the extent to which flood visualization tools co-developed with vulnerable and differentiated communities can identify fair, affordable, site specific interventions that can mitigate flood risk and constrain negative social outcomes including long-term burdens on the poor, political outcomes that favor the rich, and conditions conducive to civil unrest. The research develops a novel quantitative framework for understanding and assessing the dynamic relationship between flood risk and socio-economic inequality.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

由于沿海城市的持续扩张和环境变异性的增加，沿海洪水预计将在未来恶化。不幸的是，沿海地区的许多人缺乏必要的资源来避免在有洪水风险的地区生活和工作，并且在洪水发生时经历了极大的困难，发现在洪水事件发生后恢复住房、健康和重返工作岗位的能力极其困难。相比之下，富裕的城市地区通常受到更好的保护，恢复得更快，甚至在洪水事件发生后可能会有显著的改善。这引起了一个令人深感担忧的问题，即海平面上升和沿海洪水事件更加频繁和强烈，不仅会给沿海社区造成巨大的人员和财产损失，还可能加深不平等，扩大社会分化，给贫穷和边缘化社区带来长期负担。这样的结果可能反过来创造有利于减少对政治制度的信任和加剧内乱的条件。本项目旨在更好地了解沿海洪水对不同社会阶层的影响是如何变化的，并确定建模工具和干预措施，包括以社区为基础的政策和管理方案，这些工具和干预措施可用于减轻沿海洪水风险并限制负面后果的连锁反应。这项工作得出的模型可以为有关沿海洪水风险管理的政策辩论提供信息，有可能使脆弱社区能够参与更有效和公平的洪水规划和管理，并通过趋同方法扩大劳动力能力。该项目开发并测试了一个知识平台和行动框架，该框架将精细分辨率洪水建模与社会经济不平等分析相结合，以评估家庭和社区层面的快发和慢发沿海洪水风险和脆弱性，重点关注各社会阶层的影响分布。进一步的分析评估了对社区内部和跨社区治理的影响。试点研究集中在加州洪水风险较高的两个地区：洛杉矶大都会区和萨克拉门托-圣华金三角洲地区。本研究的目的是评估洪水可视化工具在多大程度上可以与脆弱和差异化社区共同开发，以确定公平、负担得起的、特定地点的干预措施，这些干预措施可以减轻洪水风险，并限制负面的社会后果，包括对穷人的长期负担、有利于富人的政治结果以及有利于内乱的条件。该研究为理解和评估洪水风险与社会经济不平等之间的动态关系建立了一个新的定量框架。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Large and inequitable flood risks in Los Angeles, California

加利福尼亚州洛杉矶存在巨大且不公平的洪水风险

• DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00977-7
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Nature Sustainability
• 影响因子: 27.6
• 作者: Sanders, Brett F.;Schubert, Jochen E.;Kahl, Daniel T.;Mach, Katharine J.;Brady, David;AghaKouchak, Amir;Forman, Fonna;Matthew, Richard A.;Ulibarri, Nicola;Davis, Steven J.
• 通讯作者: Davis, Steven J.

Framing the Problem of Flood Risk and Flood Management in Metropolitan Los Angeles

阐述洛杉矶大都会的洪水风险和洪水管理问题

• DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0013.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: and Society
• 作者: Ulibarri, Nicola;Valencia-Uribe, Claudia;Sanders, Brett F.;Schubert, Jochen;Matthew, Richard;Forman, Fonna;Allaire, Maura;Brady, David
• 通讯作者: Brady, David