CoPe Conference: Interoperability and data needs of models for understanding vulnerability of coastal systems to stresses and shocks associated with sea level rise: Miami, 2020

预计的环境变化，包括海平面上升和风暴事件频率和强度的增加，正在导致迅速偏离过去的趋势。然而，对这些变化的影响进行建模、预测和理解的能力极其有限。对于人口密度高、有价值的财产和税基、以及极其脆弱和服务不足的社区的沿海城市来说，这尤其令人关切。这是一个复杂的问题，需要采取综合办法，考虑到预计的环境变化对物质、生态和社会经济的潜在影响。因此，本次会议的目标是将一个跨学科的专家组聚集在一起，开发一个综合环境建模系统。一个单一的模型不能模拟所有潜在的影响，因此已经开发了许多模型来处理这些影响的子集。与会者将专注于通过解决各种模型在社会、生态和物理因素上的互操作性来开发一种综合方法。会议将包括不同的参与者群体，特别强调从弱势、服务不足的社区招募学生和利益相关者。基于模型模拟的结果在了解沿海地区自然和建成环境的脆弱性方面发挥了关键作用。模拟海平面上升、风暴潮、海浪、内陆降雨、在某些情况下还包括地下水位的洪水的陆基模型正在成熟。还在开发预测财产损失和服务中断造成的经济损失的模型。还在讨论如何模拟沿海环境中的人类行为，以应对预计因环境变化而加剧的压力和冲击而导致的洪灾频率增加。这次海岸线与人会议将审查每一类模型的现状，它们在综合评估所需信息的空间和时间分辨率方面的要求，更重要的是，开发一个适当的海岸观测系统，以测试和改进这些模型的互操作性。会议参与者将提供互操作性方面的指导，作为模型界的“实践标准”。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Projected environmental changes, including sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of storm events, are leading to rapid departures from past trends. However, the ability to model, predict, and understand the impacts of these changes is extremely limited. This is especially of great concern for coastal cities with high population density, valuable properties and tax base, and extremely vulnerable and underserved communities. This is a complex problem requiring an integrated approach that accounts for potential physical, ecological and socioeconomic impacts of projected environmental change. Therefore, goal of this conference to bring together an interdisciplinary group of experts to develop an Integrated Environmental Modeling system. A single model cannot simulate every potential impact, so numerous models have been developed to address subsets of these effects. Conference participants will focus on developing an integrated approach by addressing the interoperability of the various models across social, ecological, and physical factors. The conference will include a diverse group of participants, with a specific emphasis on recruiting students and stakeholders from vulnerable, underserved communities. Results based on model simulations play a pivotal role in understanding vulnerabilities of both natural and built environments in coastal regions. Land- based models that simulate flooding due to sea level rise, storm surge, waves, inland rainfall, and, in some cases, groundwater levels are maturing. Models for predicting economic losses due to property damage and service interruptions are also being developed. Discussions are also underway for how to model human behavior in coastal environments in the presence of increasing frequency of flooding that is expected from enhanced stresses and shocks due to projected environmental changes. This Coastlines and People conference will review the current state of each category of models, their requirements in terms of spatial and temporal resolution of information necessary for integrated assessment and, more importantly, develop an appropriate coastal observation system to test and improve the interoperability of these models. Conference participants will provide guidance on interoperability that can serve as a "standard of practice" among the modeling community.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.