CoPe Conference: Interoperability and data needs of models for understanding vulnerability of coastal systems to stresses and shocks associated with sea level rise: Miami, 2020

预计的环境变化，包括海平面上升和风暴事件的频率和强度增加，正在导致迅速偏离过去的趋势。然而，建模、预测和理解这些变化的影响的能力极其有限。对于人口密度高、拥有宝贵财产和税收基础以及极其脆弱和得不到充分服务的社区的沿海城市来说，这尤其令人严重关切。这是一个复杂的问题，需要采取综合办法，考虑到预计的环境变化可能产生的物理、生态和社会经济影响。因此，本次会议的目标是汇集一个跨学科的专家组，开发一个综合环境建模系统。单一模型无法模拟所有潜在影响，因此开发了许多模型来解决这些影响的子集。与会者将重点关注通过解决社会，生态和物理因素中各种模型的互操作性来开发综合方法。会议将包括一个不同的参与者群体，特别强调从弱势，服务不足的社区招募学生和利益攸关方。基于模型模拟的结果在理解沿海地区自然和人造环境的脆弱性方面发挥着关键作用。模拟海平面上升、风暴潮、海浪、内陆降雨以及某些情况下的地下水位造成的洪水的陆基模型正在成熟。此外，还在开发用于预测财产损失和服务中断造成的经济损失的模型。此外，还在讨论如何模拟人类在沿海环境中的行为，因为预计环境变化会增加压力和冲击，从而导致洪水发生频率增加。这次海岸线和人员会议将审查每一类模型的现状、它们在综合评估所需信息的空间和时间分辨率方面的要求，更重要的是，将开发一个适当的沿海观测系统，以测试和改进这些模型的互操作性。会议参与者将提供互操作性的指导，可作为建模社区的“实践标准”。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为是值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

Projected environmental changes, including sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of storm events, are leading to rapid departures from past trends. However, the ability to model, predict, and understand the impacts of these changes is extremely limited. This is especially of great concern for coastal cities with high population density, valuable properties and tax base, and extremely vulnerable and underserved communities. This is a complex problem requiring an integrated approach that accounts for potential physical, ecological and socioeconomic impacts of projected environmental change. Therefore, goal of this conference to bring together an interdisciplinary group of experts to develop an Integrated Environmental Modeling system. A single model cannot simulate every potential impact, so numerous models have been developed to address subsets of these effects. Conference participants will focus on developing an integrated approach by addressing the interoperability of the various models across social, ecological, and physical factors. The conference will include a diverse group of participants, with a specific emphasis on recruiting students and stakeholders from vulnerable, underserved communities. Results based on model simulations play a pivotal role in understanding vulnerabilities of both natural and built environments in coastal regions. Land- based models that simulate flooding due to sea level rise, storm surge, waves, inland rainfall, and, in some cases, groundwater levels are maturing. Models for predicting economic losses due to property damage and service interruptions are also being developed. Discussions are also underway for how to model human behavior in coastal environments in the presence of increasing frequency of flooding that is expected from enhanced stresses and shocks due to projected environmental changes. This Coastlines and People conference will review the current state of each category of models, their requirements in terms of spatial and temporal resolution of information necessary for integrated assessment and, more importantly, develop an appropriate coastal observation system to test and improve the interoperability of these models. Conference participants will provide guidance on interoperability that can serve as a "standard of practice" among the modeling community.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.