CAREER: Understanding Strategic Dynamics in the Engineering of Decentralized Systems

职业：了解去中心化系统工程中的战略动态

• 批准号: 1943433
• 负责人: Paul Grogan
• 金额: $ 50万
• 依托单位: Stevens Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2024-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1943433&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Understanding; Strategic; Dynamics; Engineering

This Faculty Early Career Development Program (CAREER) grant will diagnose and provide understanding of strategic dynamics among a set of interactive and autonomous design actors through the combined use of game theory and simulations to inform architecture and design decisions. Design activities for engineering systems across infrastructure, aerospace, and defense domains more closely resemble a collective decision-making process than centralized authority in traditional systems engineering practice. This topic is of interest because U.S. agencies and firms are actively architecting systems with decentralized decision authority, described variously as Internet 4.0, cyber-physical systems, Internet-of-things, or systems-of-systems across domains, including energy, transportation, manufacturing, and space systems. The design of these engineering systems differs from that of other systems because their large scale, long lifetime, and proximity to social systems evoke complex features such as adaptation, self-organization, and emergence, which take place over strategic timescales. A deeper understanding of how strategic dynamics impact designer interactions across theoretical and empirical perspectives can help to avoid costly overruns and cancellations by identifying and mitigating undesirable dynamics in conceptual design phases. Advances in systems engineering must develop theory, methods, and tools to coordinate and facilitate collective design activities. This project builds on a line of economic methods applied to engineering design including utility theory, decision theory, social choice, and game theory. Collective systems design is modeled as a bi-level problem, where lower-level decisions correspond to an optimization problem and upper-level strategy decisions correspond to a coordination game. Normative models of agent behavior are based on classical and Bayesian game theory with utility functions incorporating behavioral factors such as risk attitudes. Multi-agent simulation studies evolution of strategies under repeated interaction among agents. Behavioral experiments collect empirical data about human decision-making for validation. The research will contribute new knowledge about how to characterize, study, and modify the strategic dynamics of engineering systems during conceptual design phases. The educational plan develops and delivers simulation activities to model systems problems by combining technical modeling and social interaction. The simulation activities behave as a highly abstracted model system to elicit rich strategic behaviors through face-to-face interaction, engage students with challenges of socio-technical problems, and retain computational tractability to teach analytical methods in educational contexts. Development and broad public dissemination of simulations in the context of Earth science space missions will expose a wide audience to strategic issues of government-commercial interdependency in space systems.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该学院的早期职业发展计划（CAREER）拨款将通过结合使用博弈论和模拟来诊断和理解一组交互式和自主设计参与者之间的战略动态，从而为建筑和设计决策提供信息。基础设施、航空航天和国防领域的工程系统设计活动更类似于集体决策过程，而不是传统系统工程实践中的集中权力。这个话题很有趣，因为美国机构和公司正在积极构建具有分散决策权的系统，这些系统被不同地描述为互联网 4.0、网络物理系统、物联网或跨领域的系统系统，包括能源、交通、制造和空间系统。这些工程系统的设计与其他系统的设计不同，因为它们规模大、寿命长且接近社会系统，会引发适应、自组织和涌现等复杂特征，这些特征在战略时间尺度上发生。更深入地了解战略动态如何影响设计师在理论和实证角度的互动，可以通过识别和减轻概念设计阶段中的不良动态来帮助避免代价高昂的超支和取消。系统工程的进步必须开发理论、方法和工具来协调和促进集体设计活动。该项目建立在一系列应用于工程设计的经济方法的基础上，包括效用理论、决策理论、社会选择和博弈论。集体系统设计被建模为双层问题，其中较低层决策对应于优化问题，高层策略决策对应于协调博弈。代理人行为的规范模型基于经典和贝叶斯博弈论，其效用函数结合了风险态度等行为因素。多智能体模拟研究智能体之间重复交互下策略的演化。行为实验收集有关人类决策的经验数据以进行验证。该研究将贡献关于如何在概念设计阶段表征、研究和修改工程系统的战略动态的新知识。该教育计划通过结合技术建模和社交互动来开发和提供模拟活动来对系统问题进行建模。模拟活动充当高度抽象的模型系统，通过面对面的互动引发丰富的策略行为，让学生应对社会技术问题的挑战，并保留计算的易处理性以在教育环境中教授分析方法。在地球科学太空任务背景下进行模拟的开发和广泛的公众传播将使广大受众了解太空系统中政府与商业相互依赖的战略问题。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Federated Space Systems’ Trade-Space Exploration for Strategic Robustness

联合空间系统——战略稳健性的贸易空间探索

• DOI: 10.2514/1.a35103
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets
• 影响因子: 1.6
• 作者: Stern, Jordan L.;Grogan, Paul T.
• 通讯作者: Grogan, Paul T.

Effects of differential risk attitudes in collaborative systems design

协作系统设计中不同风险态度的影响

• DOI: 10.1002/sys.21687
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Systems Engineering
• 影响因子: 2
• 作者: Avşar, Alkım Z.;Grogan, Paul T.
• 通讯作者: Grogan, Paul T.

Identification of designer search strategies and their effects on performance outcomes in pair parameter design tasks

确定设计师搜索策略及其对参数对设计任务中性能结果的影响

• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
• 作者: Avsar, Alkim Z.;Grogan, Paul T.
• 通讯作者: Grogan, Paul T.

Measuring Risk Attitudes for Strategic Decision-Making in a Collaborative Engineering Design Process

衡量协作工程设计过程中战略决策的风险态度

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: ASME 2022 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference
• 作者: Avşar, Alkim Z.;Stern, Jordan L.;Grogan, Paul T.
• 通讯作者: Grogan, Paul T.

Strategic robustness in bi-level system-of-systems design

双层系统设计的战略稳健性

• DOI: 10.1017/dsj.2022.2
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Design Science
• 影响因子: 2.4
• 作者: Stern, Jordan L.;Valencia-Romero, Ambrosio;Grogan, Paul T.
• 通讯作者: Grogan, Paul T.