CAREER: Capacity Adequacy Options for Electricity Markets with Increasing Renewable Penetration: Equilibrium Models and Laboratory Experiments

有组织的电力批发市场是一个复杂的机构，它将经济原理与电力输送的物理原理结合在一起。这些市场汇聚成一个共同的框架，自1990年代以来成功地促进了高效和可靠的运营。然而，间歇性可再生能源的增长带来了早期设计中未知或较少的挑战。随着电力市场的发展，将可再生能源发电纳入电力系统，需要强大的模型和分析工具来帮助决策者进行设计。市场的复杂性往往没有充分体现在模型，旨在通知设计决策，电力市场结构之间的比较是困难的。本CAREER提案的研究目标是开发一个统一的概念和计算框架，以比较批发电力市场设计在增加可再生能源渗透率下为发电容量投资提供有效激励的能力。研究结果将促进对与电力市场设计相关的效率收益的理解，有助于在整合可再生能源的最有效途径上提供更清晰的答案，并有助于塑造未来的市场设计决策。目前与区域电力市场的合作将促进研究结果的传播和有希望的市场设计创新的实施。这项职业建议的教育目标是提供研究机会，让女本科生参加PI的研究小组，鼓励她们对攻读高级学位的兴趣，并将科学传播培训纳入本科和研究生教育。这些目标与PI的长期教育目标保持一致，即扩大女性在能源经济学和工程学研究领域的参与，并教育下一代能源学者和专业人士。拟议的研究探讨了与可再生能源整合到电力系统相关的市场设计挑战，使用一种独特的方法，将均衡模型和实验经济方法相结合。首先，PI将开发多阶段均衡模型，以模拟在电力市场下的资源充足性和收入充足性的替代设计的投资和运营决策。均衡模型将：㈠考虑到可再生能源生产、需求和燃料价格的不确定性对投资决定的影响; ㈡跨越多年时间框架，考虑投资和退休决定; ㈢将规避风险的投资纳入发电能力和能源市场的不完全竞争。在这个建议中讨论的类型的模型的特点是非凸性，提出了挑战，建立解决方案的技术。为了处理计算复杂性，PI将利用最新的算法进步来计算不确定性下的非合作博弈的均衡。其次，PI将设计并进行人体实验，以比较市场设计的性能特征。实验室是在受控条件下评估市场结构的理想环境，提供了一个机会来收集每种设计的相对优势和劣势的证据，并在反映自然发生的市场的显著特征的经济环境中研究人类决策。因此，实验可以作为一个有价值的补充平衡模型的设计工作。平衡模型的预测结果将与实验市场的结果进行比较，以提供对现实世界市场设计的见解。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Organized wholesale electricity markets are complex institutions combining economic principles with the physics of electric delivery. These markets converged to a common framework that has been successful at promoting efficient and reliable operations since the 1990s. However, the growth of intermittent renewables poses challenges that were unknown, or less material, in the early designs. As electricity markets evolve to integrate renewable generation into power systems, there is a need for robust models and analysis tools to help decision-makers in the design effort. Market complexity is often not adequately represented in models aimed at informing design decisions, and comparisons between electricity market structures are difficult. The research objective of this CAREER proposal is to develop a unifying conceptual and computational framework to compare wholesale electricity market designs on their ability to provide efficient incentives for generation capacity investment under increasing renewable penetration. Results will advance understanding of efficiency gains associated with electricity market designs, contribute to sharper answers on the most efficient path forward to integrate renewables, and help shape future market design decisions. Ongoing collaboration with regional electricity markets will facilitate dissemination of research findings and implementation of promising market design innovations. The educational objective of this CAREER proposal is to provide research opportunities that engage female undergraduate students in the PI's research group and encourage their interest in pursuing advanced degrees, and integrate science communication training into undergraduate and graduate education. These objectives are well aligned with the PI's long-term educational goals of broadening participation of women in research careers in energy economics and engineering, and educating the next generation of energy scholars and professionals.The proposed research examines a market design challenge associated with renewable integration into electricity systems, using a unique approach that combines equilibrium models and experimental economic methods. First, the PI will develop multi-stage equilibrium models to simulate investment and operation decisions in electricity markets under alternate designs for resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency. Equilibrium models will: i) account for the impact of uncertainty in renewable production, demand and fuel prices on investment decisions; ii) span a multi-year time frame to consider investment and retirement decisions; iii) incorporate risk-averse investment in generation capacity and imperfect competition in energy markets. Models of the type discussed in this proposal are characterized by non-convexities that pose challenges to established solution techniques. To handle computational complexity, the PI will leverage recent algorithmic advances for computing equilibria of non-cooperative games under uncertainty. Second, the PI will design and conduct human subject experiments to compare performance characteristics of market designs. The laboratory is an ideal environment to evaluate market structures under controlled conditions, providing an opportunity to gather evidence on the relative strengths and weaknesses of each design, and examine human decisions in economic environments that reflect salient features of the naturally occurring markets. Thus, experiments may serve as a valuable complement to equilibrium models in the design effort. Predictions from the equilibrium models will be compared to outcomes from the experimental markets to provide insights into real-world market design.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.