CAREER: Capacity Adequacy Options for Electricity Markets with Increasing Renewable Penetration: Equilibrium Models and Laboratory Experiments

职业：随着可再生能源渗透率的提高，电力市场的容量充足性选择：平衡模型和实验室实验

• 批准号: 1943992
• 负责人: Chiara Lo Prete
• 金额: $ 50万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-03-01 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1943992&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Capacity; Adequacy; Options; Electricity

Organized wholesale electricity markets are complex institutions combining economic principles with the physics of electric delivery. These markets converged to a common framework that has been successful at promoting efficient and reliable operations since the 1990s. However, the growth of intermittent renewables poses challenges that were unknown, or less material, in the early designs. As electricity markets evolve to integrate renewable generation into power systems, there is a need for robust models and analysis tools to help decision-makers in the design effort. Market complexity is often not adequately represented in models aimed at informing design decisions, and comparisons between electricity market structures are difficult. The research objective of this CAREER proposal is to develop a unifying conceptual and computational framework to compare wholesale electricity market designs on their ability to provide efficient incentives for generation capacity investment under increasing renewable penetration. Results will advance understanding of efficiency gains associated with electricity market designs, contribute to sharper answers on the most efficient path forward to integrate renewables, and help shape future market design decisions. Ongoing collaboration with regional electricity markets will facilitate dissemination of research findings and implementation of promising market design innovations. The educational objective of this CAREER proposal is to provide research opportunities that engage female undergraduate students in the PI's research group and encourage their interest in pursuing advanced degrees, and integrate science communication training into undergraduate and graduate education. These objectives are well aligned with the PI's long-term educational goals of broadening participation of women in research careers in energy economics and engineering, and educating the next generation of energy scholars and professionals.The proposed research examines a market design challenge associated with renewable integration into electricity systems, using a unique approach that combines equilibrium models and experimental economic methods. First, the PI will develop multi-stage equilibrium models to simulate investment and operation decisions in electricity markets under alternate designs for resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency. Equilibrium models will: i) account for the impact of uncertainty in renewable production, demand and fuel prices on investment decisions; ii) span a multi-year time frame to consider investment and retirement decisions; iii) incorporate risk-averse investment in generation capacity and imperfect competition in energy markets. Models of the type discussed in this proposal are characterized by non-convexities that pose challenges to established solution techniques. To handle computational complexity, the PI will leverage recent algorithmic advances for computing equilibria of non-cooperative games under uncertainty. Second, the PI will design and conduct human subject experiments to compare performance characteristics of market designs. The laboratory is an ideal environment to evaluate market structures under controlled conditions, providing an opportunity to gather evidence on the relative strengths and weaknesses of each design, and examine human decisions in economic environments that reflect salient features of the naturally occurring markets. Thus, experiments may serve as a valuable complement to equilibrium models in the design effort. Predictions from the equilibrium models will be compared to outcomes from the experimental markets to provide insights into real-world market design.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

有组织的电力批发市场是将经济原理与电力输送物理学相结合的复杂机构。这些市场汇聚成一个共同框架，该框架自 20 世纪 90 年代以来已成功促进高效、可靠的运营。然而，间歇性可再生能源的增长带来了早期设计中未知或较少的挑战。随着电力市场不断发展，将可再生能源发电整合到电力系统中，需要强大的模型和分析工具来帮助决策者进行设计工作。旨在为设计决策提供信息的模型通常无法充分体现市场的复杂性，而且电力市场结构之间的比较也很困难。本职业提案的研究目标是开发一个统一的概念和计算框架，以比较批发电力市场设计在可再生能源渗透率不断提高的情况下为发电容量投资提供有效激励的能力。结果将增进对与电力市场设计相关的效率增益的理解，有助于就整合可再生能源的最有效路径提供更清晰的答案，并帮助塑造未来的市场设计决策。与区域电力市场的持续合作将促进研究成果的传播和有前景的市场设计创新的实施。该职业提案的教育目标是提供研究机会，吸引女本科生加入 PI 研究小组，鼓励她们攻读高级学位的兴趣，并将科学传播培训融入本科生和研究生教育。这些目标与PI的长期教育目标非常一致，即扩大女性对能源经济和工程研究职业的参与，并教育下一代能源学者和专业人士。拟议的研究使用平衡模型和实验经济方法相结合的独特方法，探讨了与可再生能源并入电力系统相关的市场设计挑战。首先，PI将开发多阶段均衡模型，以模拟资源充足和收入充足的替代设计下电力市场的投资和运营决策。均衡模型将： i) 考虑可再生能源生产、需求和燃料价格的不确定性对投资决策的影响； ii) 跨越多年的时间框架来考虑投资和退休决策； iii) 将发电能力的风险规避投资和能源市场的不完全竞争纳入其中。本提案中讨论的模型类型的特点是非凸性，这对现有的解决方案技术提出了挑战。为了处理计算复杂性，PI 将利用最新的算法进步来计算不确定性下非合作博弈的均衡。其次，PI 将设计并进行人体实验，以比较市场设计的性能特征。该实验室是在受控条件下评估市场结构的理想环境，提供了收集每种设计的相对优势和劣势的证据的机会，并检查反映自然发生市场显着特征的经济环境中的人类决策。因此，实验可以作为设计工作中平衡模型的有价值的补充。均衡模型的预测将与实验市场的结果进行比较，以提供对现实世界市场设计的见解。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。