CAREER: Capacity Adequacy Options for Electricity Markets with Increasing Renewable Penetration: Equilibrium Models and Laboratory Experiments

职业：随着可再生能源渗透率的提高，电力市场的容量充足性选择：平衡模型和实验室实验

• 批准号: 1943992
• 负责人: Chiara Lo Prete
• 金额: $ 50万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-03-01 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1943992&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Capacity; Adequacy; Options; Electricity

Organized wholesale electricity markets are complex institutions combining economic principles with the physics of electric delivery. These markets converged to a common framework that has been successful at promoting efficient and reliable operations since the 1990s. However, the growth of intermittent renewables poses challenges that were unknown, or less material, in the early designs. As electricity markets evolve to integrate renewable generation into power systems, there is a need for robust models and analysis tools to help decision-makers in the design effort. Market complexity is often not adequately represented in models aimed at informing design decisions, and comparisons between electricity market structures are difficult. The research objective of this CAREER proposal is to develop a unifying conceptual and computational framework to compare wholesale electricity market designs on their ability to provide efficient incentives for generation capacity investment under increasing renewable penetration. Results will advance understanding of efficiency gains associated with electricity market designs, contribute to sharper answers on the most efficient path forward to integrate renewables, and help shape future market design decisions. Ongoing collaboration with regional electricity markets will facilitate dissemination of research findings and implementation of promising market design innovations. The educational objective of this CAREER proposal is to provide research opportunities that engage female undergraduate students in the PI's research group and encourage their interest in pursuing advanced degrees, and integrate science communication training into undergraduate and graduate education. These objectives are well aligned with the PI's long-term educational goals of broadening participation of women in research careers in energy economics and engineering, and educating the next generation of energy scholars and professionals.The proposed research examines a market design challenge associated with renewable integration into electricity systems, using a unique approach that combines equilibrium models and experimental economic methods. First, the PI will develop multi-stage equilibrium models to simulate investment and operation decisions in electricity markets under alternate designs for resource adequacy and revenue sufficiency. Equilibrium models will: i) account for the impact of uncertainty in renewable production, demand and fuel prices on investment decisions; ii) span a multi-year time frame to consider investment and retirement decisions; iii) incorporate risk-averse investment in generation capacity and imperfect competition in energy markets. Models of the type discussed in this proposal are characterized by non-convexities that pose challenges to established solution techniques. To handle computational complexity, the PI will leverage recent algorithmic advances for computing equilibria of non-cooperative games under uncertainty. Second, the PI will design and conduct human subject experiments to compare performance characteristics of market designs. The laboratory is an ideal environment to evaluate market structures under controlled conditions, providing an opportunity to gather evidence on the relative strengths and weaknesses of each design, and examine human decisions in economic environments that reflect salient features of the naturally occurring markets. Thus, experiments may serve as a valuable complement to equilibrium models in the design effort. Predictions from the equilibrium models will be compared to outcomes from the experimental markets to provide insights into real-world market design.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

有组织的批发电力市场是结合经济原理与电力物理学的复杂机构。这些市场融合到了一个共同的框架中，该框架已经成功地促进了1990年代以来的高效和可靠运营。但是，间歇性可再生能源的增长构成了早期设计中未知或更少材料的挑战。随着电力市场的发展旨在将可再生生成整合到电力系统中，需要强大的模型和分析工具来帮助决策者进行设计工作。市场复杂性通常在旨在告知设计决策的模型中没有充分代表，并且很难进行电力市场结构之间的比较。这项职业建议的研究目标是开发一个统一的概念和计算框架，以将批发电力市场设计比较其在增加可再生渗透率下为发电能力投资提供有效激励措施的能力。结果将进一步了解与电力市场设计相关的效率提升，在最有效的途径上促进更尖锐的答案，以整合可再生能源，并有助于塑造未来的市场设计决策。与区域电力市场的持续合作将有助于传播研究结果，并实施有希望的市场设计创新。这项职业建议的教育目标是提供研究机会，使女性本科生参与PI研究小组，并鼓励他们对追求高级学位的兴趣，并将科学沟通培训纳入本科和研究生教育。这些目标与PI的长期教育目标保持一致，即扩大妇女在能源经济学和工程领域的研究生涯，并教育下一代能源学者和专业人士。拟议的研究研究了与可再生能源整合到电力系统中的市场设计挑战，该挑战使用了将平衡模型和实验性经济学方法结合在一起的独特方法。首先，PI将开发多个阶段平衡模型，以模拟替代设计下的电力市场投资和运营决策，以提供资源充足性和收入充足。均衡模型将：i）解释不确定性在可再生生产，需求和燃料价格对投资决策的影响； ii）跨越多年的时间范围，以考虑投资和退休决策； iii）在能源市场中将规避风险的投资和不完善的竞争纳入了风险投资。该提案中讨论的类型的模型的特征是非跨性别型，这些偶数对已建立的解决方案技术构成挑战。为了处理计算复杂性，PI将利用在不确定性下计算非合作游戏平衡的最新算法进步。其次，PI将设计和进行人类主题实验，以比较市场设计的性能特征。该实验室是评估在受控条件下市场结构的理想环境，提供了一个机会，可以收集有关每种设计的相对优势和劣势的证据，并在经济环境中研究反映自然发生市场的显着特征的人类决策。因此，实验可以作为设计工作中平衡模型的宝贵补充。将将均衡模型的预测与实验市场的结果进行比较，以提供对现实市场设计的见解。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并认为使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响审查标准，认为值得通过评估来获得支持。