CAREER: Precipitation Variability Across Multiple Timescales

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Precipitation can vary on time scales from minutes to centuries and can significantly impact a variety of sectors including water resources, managed and natural ecosystems, and public health. Precipitation is becoming more variable across much of the globe, and this variability is projected to increase in the future having potentially dramatic societal impacts. This project will advance physical understanding and the ability to predict precipitation variability while building the ability of students to see themselves as scientists in the workforce (a.k.a. science identity) and contribute to a diverse, equitable, and inclusive STEM community. The investigation goes beyond traditional individual timescales to understand how and why precipitation at different timescales interact. Of particular focus will be understanding how the seasonal cycle of precipitation varies (i.e., the timing and magnitude of precipitation received throughout the year) and how and why rapid transitions between wet and dry conditions occur. Without a thorough understanding of the processes and mechanisms that control variability, prediction of precipitation variations cannot be improved. The project will be accomplished through analyses of observations and historical forecasts and by conducting climate model experiments to disentangle and unravel precipitation interactions across different timescales. The research will be integrated with an education program that utilizes precipitation variability research to build student’s atmospheric science identity through videos, scientist spotlights, and a Precip-a-Thon. This project will address fundamental science questions at the interface of grand challenges in weather and climate extremes, water sustainability, and informed decision making. Science will be advanced by quantifying variability and diagnosing mechanisms and predictability of the annual cycle of precipitation, rapid wet-dry transitions, and associated extreme events across North America. Through these scientific advances, our ability to predict impactful precipitation fluctuations will be increased. Understanding, and ultimately predicting, precipitation variability across timescales is a global challenge and the results and methodology generated in this project for North America and sub-regions can be applied to other locations. A comprehensive educational plan is integrated with the project to build an educated, informed, and diverse workforce, including decision-makers, capable of using, interpreting, and understanding climate science. Building student’s atmospheric science identity will lead to a multitude of broader impacts through workforce development and the educational materials developed. This project will create video materials concerning precipitation variability to build climate literacy as well as creating and implementing scientist spotlights to build science identity. The hands-on Precip-a-Thon, utilizing video materials and precipitation data, for prospective meteorology students visiting the University of Oklahoma will begin building science identity and introduce them to research early. The synergy among components, including engaging students in research and using research in education and recruiting materials, will amplify their effects and quicken the pace of scientific discovery while enhancing STEM education and climate literacy in Oklahoma and beyond.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.