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Svalbard Ice-Mass Evolution in past and future - Climate forcing and Teleconnections (SvIMEv-CT): 4th year

过去和未来的斯瓦尔巴群岛冰块演化 - 气候强迫和遥相关（SvIMEv-CT）：第四年

基本信息

批准号：
240272395
负责人：
Dr. Marco Möller
金额：
--
依托单位：
Institut für Geographie
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2012-12-31 至 2016-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/240272395?language=en
关键词：
Svalbard Ice Mass Evolution past

项目摘要

Climate change is one of the major challenges humanity has to face during the 21st century. Its effects are numerous with increased mass loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps and their sub-stantial contribution to sea level-rise being among the most prominent. In this context, Arctic glaci-ers and ice caps are especially important due to their extensive ice volume and due to their large surface area that acts as a contact surface to climate and oceanic forcing and thus to climate change itself. The Arctic is, moreover, the region of highest predicted future air-temperature in-creases. Therefore, the importance of losses of ice masses in the Arctic and their contribution to sea-level rise is expected to even increase in the future.The aim of the project is to achieve reliable projections of the spatial and temporal variability of future climatic mass balance and ice-mass evolution of all glaciers and ice caps of Svalbard ac-cording to the four commonly considered future climate scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. Each of these scenarios will be represented by an ensemble of ten different global circulation models. The necessary modelling will be done using the spatially distributed climatic mass balance model developed and setup during the first three years of the SvIMEv-CT project. During the 4th year of the project, the model will be extended to a coupled "glacier-change model" that accounts for fluctuations of glacier surface topography and surface extent on annual intervals. The accuracy and reliability of this glacier-change model will be tested for the example of two specific glaciers in central Svalbard (Elfenbeinbreen and Sveigbreen). Comparison of the obtained results will be done against known glacier-retreat stages over recent years and against glacier-change projections obtained by using a 1D flow-line model. The glacier-change model will be forced by spatially distributed, statistically downscaled air temperature and precipitation data from the ten global circulation models and by modeled net shortwave radiation fluxes. The latter account for modelled, spatially distributed surface albedo variability and global circulation model-derived cloud-cover conditions. The model will be run over the entire 21st century in order to obtain projections of glacier mass balance, of glacier area and volume changes as well as of the associated sea level-rise contributions of the ice masses of Svalbard until 2100.

气候变化是人类在21世纪世纪面临的重大挑战之一。气候变化的影响是多方面的，其中最突出的是山区冰川和冰帽的质量损失增加，以及它们对海平面上升的巨大贡献。在这方面，北极冰川和冰帽特别重要，因为它们的冰量很大，表面积很大，是气候和海洋作用力的接触面，因此也是气候变化本身的接触面。此外，北极是预测未来气温上升最高的地区。该项目的目的是根据四种普遍考虑的未来气候情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP2.6和RCP4.5），对斯瓦尔巴特群岛所有冰川和冰盖未来气候质量平衡和冰量演变的时空变化进行可靠的预测。RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5。这些情景中的每一种都将由十个不同的全球环流模型的集合来表示。将利用SvIMEv-CT项目前三年开发和建立的空间分布气候质量平衡模型进行必要的建模。在该项目的第四年，该模型将扩展到一个耦合的“冰川变化模型”，该模型解释了冰川表面地形和表面范围每年的波动。该冰川变化模型的准确性和可靠性将以斯瓦尔巴群岛中部的两个特定冰川（Elfenbeinbreen和Sveigbreen）为例进行测试。将对所获得的结果进行比较，对已知的冰川退缩阶段，近年来，对冰川变化的预测，通过使用一维流线模型。冰川变化模型将受到来自十个全球环流模型的空间分布的、统计上缩小尺度的气温和降水数据以及模拟的净短波辐射通量的影响。后者解释了模拟的、空间分布的地面环流变率和全球环流模式导出的云量条件。该模型将在整个世纪运行，以便获得对冰川质量平衡、冰川面积和体积变化以及斯瓦尔巴特群岛冰块在2100年之前对海平面上升的相关贡献的预测。