LTREB: Resource pulses and the dynamics of rodents, ticks, and Lyme-disease risk in oak forests

莱姆病是美国最常见的媒介传播疾病，发病率和地理范围都在增加。诊断测试并不完美，治疗有时也无效。因此，避免接触传播致病细菌的受感染的扁虱，对于保护公众免受这种潜伏的疾病是至关重要的。反过来，要避免莱姆病，就需要知道何时何地会有大量受感染的扁虱，因此风险很高。这些研究的继续将使研究人员能够更好地了解捕食者以及环境变化对老鼠种群的影响，以便预测接触壁虱传播疾病的风险的长期变化。这项研究将预测疾病风险，并将通过多种媒体向公众传达这一信息。研究小组将继续在地方、州和联邦各级的相关公共政策委员会任职。此前的研究表明，秋季橡子的高丰度会刺激白脚老鼠的数量增长，导致第二年夏天老鼠密度高。新孵化的幼虫从老鼠那里比从其他宿主那里更成功地取食，并更有效地获取病原体。在橡子丰收的一年后的夏天，幼虫从大量的老鼠身上取食，一年后蜕皮成若虫，导致感染的若虫密度高，因此莱姆病的风险很高，在桅杆生产后的两个夏天。研究人员建议继续在六个核心研究地点进行研究，以保持以下方面的长期数据：1.橡子和其他树木种子生产；2.小鼠、花栗鼠、松鼠和鹿的种群动态；3.幼虫、若虫和成年黑腿硬蜱的种群动态；4.蜱虫感染人畜共患病原体的流行率；5.壁虱对特定气候变量的反应；以及6.捕食者和稀释宿主的发生。尽管过去橡子生产的莱姆病风险是可预测的，但最近出现了新的模式和问题。因此，我们将追求五个中心目标：1.整合寄主寻找和附着性的壁虱亚群，以开发环境变化条件下壁虱种群动态的完整模型；2.建立气候对莱姆病风险影响的模拟机制基础；3.确定由于气候、个体发育和物种相对丰度变化而导致的林木种子生产的长期趋势；4.了解老鼠捕食者对啮齿动物和壁虱相互作用的自上而下的影响；以及5.从组成部分开发和迭代评估莱姆病风险预测。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Lyme disease is the most frequently reported vector-borne disease in the United States and is increasing in incidence and geographic range. Diagnostic tests are imperfect and treatments are sometimes ineffective. As a result, avoidance of exposure to the infected ticks that transmit the disease-causing bacteria is critical to protecting the public from this insidious disease. Avoidance of Lyme disease, in turn, requires knowing where and when infected ticks are expected to be abundant and risk therefore high. The continuation of these studies will allow researchers to better understand the effects of predators as well as environmental variation on mice populations, in order to predict long-term changes in risk of exposure to tick-borne diseases. The research will predict disease risk and will communicate this to the public, through multiple media outlets. The research team will continue to serve on relevant public policy boards at the local, state, and federal levels. Previous research has revealed that high abundance of acorns in the fall stimulates population growth of white-footed mice, resulting in high mouse density the following summer. Newly hatched larval ticks feed more successfully, and acquire pathogens more efficiently, from mice than from other hosts. Larval ticks feeding from abundant mice the summer following a high acorn year molt into nymphs one year later, resulting in high density of infected nymphs, and therefore high risk of Lyme disease, two summers following mast production. The investigators propose to continue research at six core study sites to maintain long-term data on: 1. Acorn and other tree seed production; 2. Population dynamics of mice, chipmunks, squirrels, and deer; 3. Population dynamics of larval, nymphal, and adult blacklegged ticks; 4. Infection prevalence of ticks with zoonotic pathogens; 5. Tick responses to specific climatic variables; and 6. Occurrence of predators and dilution hosts. Despite the predictability of Lyme-disease risk from past acorn production, new patterns and questions have recently emerged. Thus, five central objectives will be pursued: 1. Integrating host-seeking and attached tick subpopulations to develop full models of tick population dynamics under conditions of environmental variability; 2. Establishing a mechanistic basis for modeling climate effects on Lyme disease risk; 3. Determining long-term trends in tree seed production as a consequence of changes in climate, ontogeny, and the relative abundance of species; 4. Understanding top-down effects of mouse predators on rodent-tick interactions; and 5. Develop and iteratively evaluate forecasts for Lyme disease risk from the component parts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.