LTREB: Resource pulses and the dynamics of rodents, ticks, and Lyme-disease risk in oak forests

莱姆病是美国最常见的媒介传播疾病，发病率和地理范围都在增加。诊断测试不完善，治疗有时无效。因此，避免接触传播致病细菌的受感染蜱虫对于保护公众免受这种潜伏疾病的侵害至关重要。反过来，要避免莱姆病，就需要知道感染蜱虫预计在何时何地大量出现，因此风险很高。这些研究的继续将使研究人员能够更好地了解捕食者以及环境变化对小鼠种群的影响，以便预测暴露于蜱传疾病的风险的长期变化。这项研究将预测疾病风险，并将通过多种媒体渠道向公众传播。研究小组将继续在地方、州和联邦各级的相关公共政策委员会任职。先前的研究表明，秋天大量的橡子会刺激白足鼠的数量增长，导致接下来的夏天老鼠密度很高。新孵化的蜱虫幼虫从老鼠身上比从其他宿主身上更成功地进食，更有效地获得病原体。高橡实年之后的夏季，幼虫从大量的小鼠中取食，一年后蜕皮为若虫，导致感染若虫密度高，因此莱姆病的高风险，在肥大生产后的两个夏季。研究人员建议在六个核心研究地点继续研究，以保持长期数据：橡子和其他树木种子生产；2. 老鼠、花栗鼠、松鼠和鹿的种群动态；3. 黑腿蜱幼虫、若虫和成虫种群动态4. 蜱感染人畜共患病原体的流行情况5. 蜱对特定气候变量的反应；和6。捕食者的出现和宿主的稀释。尽管从过去的橡果生产中可以预测莱姆病的风险，但最近出现了新的模式和问题。因此，将追求五个中心目标：整合寄主寻找和附着蜱亚种群，建立环境变化条件下蜱种群动态的完整模型；2. 建立气候对莱姆病风险影响建模的机制基础；3. 确定气候、个体发育和物种相对丰度变化导致的树木种子产量的长期趋势；4. 了解老鼠捕食者对啮齿动物-蜱虫相互作用自上而下的影响；和5。从各组成部分开发和迭代评估莱姆病风险预测。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Lyme disease is the most frequently reported vector-borne disease in the United States and is increasing in incidence and geographic range. Diagnostic tests are imperfect and treatments are sometimes ineffective. As a result, avoidance of exposure to the infected ticks that transmit the disease-causing bacteria is critical to protecting the public from this insidious disease. Avoidance of Lyme disease, in turn, requires knowing where and when infected ticks are expected to be abundant and risk therefore high. The continuation of these studies will allow researchers to better understand the effects of predators as well as environmental variation on mice populations, in order to predict long-term changes in risk of exposure to tick-borne diseases. The research will predict disease risk and will communicate this to the public, through multiple media outlets. The research team will continue to serve on relevant public policy boards at the local, state, and federal levels. Previous research has revealed that high abundance of acorns in the fall stimulates population growth of white-footed mice, resulting in high mouse density the following summer. Newly hatched larval ticks feed more successfully, and acquire pathogens more efficiently, from mice than from other hosts. Larval ticks feeding from abundant mice the summer following a high acorn year molt into nymphs one year later, resulting in high density of infected nymphs, and therefore high risk of Lyme disease, two summers following mast production. The investigators propose to continue research at six core study sites to maintain long-term data on: 1. Acorn and other tree seed production; 2. Population dynamics of mice, chipmunks, squirrels, and deer; 3. Population dynamics of larval, nymphal, and adult blacklegged ticks; 4. Infection prevalence of ticks with zoonotic pathogens; 5. Tick responses to specific climatic variables; and 6. Occurrence of predators and dilution hosts. Despite the predictability of Lyme-disease risk from past acorn production, new patterns and questions have recently emerged. Thus, five central objectives will be pursued: 1. Integrating host-seeking and attached tick subpopulations to develop full models of tick population dynamics under conditions of environmental variability; 2. Establishing a mechanistic basis for modeling climate effects on Lyme disease risk; 3. Determining long-term trends in tree seed production as a consequence of changes in climate, ontogeny, and the relative abundance of species; 4. Understanding top-down effects of mouse predators on rodent-tick interactions; and 5. Develop and iteratively evaluate forecasts for Lyme disease risk from the component parts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.