LTREB: Resource pulses and the dynamics of rodents, ticks, and Lyme-disease risk in oak forests

莱姆病是美国最常报告的病媒传播疾病，发病率和地理范围正在增加。 诊断测试是不完善的，治疗有时是无效的。 因此，避免接触传播致病细菌的受感染蜱虫对于保护公众免受这种阴险的疾病至关重要。 避免莱姆病，反过来，需要知道何时何地感染蜱虫预计是丰富的，因此风险高。 这些研究的继续将使研究人员能够更好地了解捕食者以及环境变化对小鼠种群的影响，以预测接触蜱传疾病风险的长期变化。该研究将预测疾病风险，并通过多种媒体向公众传达这一信息。研究小组将继续在地方、州和联邦各级的相关公共政策委员会任职。 先前的研究表明，秋季大量的橡子刺激了白足鼠的种群增长，导致次年夏天的高鼠密度。新孵化的蜱虫幼虫从小鼠身上比从其他宿主身上取食更成功，更有效地获得病原体。蜱虫幼虫在高橡子年后的夏天从大量的小鼠中取食，一年后蜕皮为蜱虫，导致高密度的受感染蜱虫，因此在肥大细胞产生后的两个夏天，莱姆病的风险很高。 研究人员建议继续在六个核心研究中心进行研究，以保持以下方面的长期数据：1。橡子等林木种子生产; 2.小鼠、花栗鼠、松鼠和鹿的种群动态; 3.黑脚蜱幼虫、若虫和成虫的种群动态; 4.人畜共患病原体蜱的感染率; 5.蜱对特定气候变量的反应; 6.捕食者和稀释宿主的出现。 尽管从过去的橡子生产中可以预测莱姆病的风险，但最近出现了新的模式和问题。 因此，将追求五个中心目标：1.整合宿主寻找和附着蜱亚群，建立环境变化条件下蜱种群动态的完整模型; 2.为气候对莱姆病风险的影响建模建立机制基础; 3.确定树木种子生产的长期趋势，作为气候变化的结果，个体发育和物种的相对丰度; 4。理解老鼠捕食者对啮齿动物-蜱虫相互作用的自上而下的影响; 5.开发和迭代评估莱姆病风险预测的组成部分。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。

Lyme disease is the most frequently reported vector-borne disease in the United States and is increasing in incidence and geographic range. Diagnostic tests are imperfect and treatments are sometimes ineffective. As a result, avoidance of exposure to the infected ticks that transmit the disease-causing bacteria is critical to protecting the public from this insidious disease. Avoidance of Lyme disease, in turn, requires knowing where and when infected ticks are expected to be abundant and risk therefore high. The continuation of these studies will allow researchers to better understand the effects of predators as well as environmental variation on mice populations, in order to predict long-term changes in risk of exposure to tick-borne diseases. The research will predict disease risk and will communicate this to the public, through multiple media outlets. The research team will continue to serve on relevant public policy boards at the local, state, and federal levels. Previous research has revealed that high abundance of acorns in the fall stimulates population growth of white-footed mice, resulting in high mouse density the following summer. Newly hatched larval ticks feed more successfully, and acquire pathogens more efficiently, from mice than from other hosts. Larval ticks feeding from abundant mice the summer following a high acorn year molt into nymphs one year later, resulting in high density of infected nymphs, and therefore high risk of Lyme disease, two summers following mast production. The investigators propose to continue research at six core study sites to maintain long-term data on: 1. Acorn and other tree seed production; 2. Population dynamics of mice, chipmunks, squirrels, and deer; 3. Population dynamics of larval, nymphal, and adult blacklegged ticks; 4. Infection prevalence of ticks with zoonotic pathogens; 5. Tick responses to specific climatic variables; and 6. Occurrence of predators and dilution hosts. Despite the predictability of Lyme-disease risk from past acorn production, new patterns and questions have recently emerged. Thus, five central objectives will be pursued: 1. Integrating host-seeking and attached tick subpopulations to develop full models of tick population dynamics under conditions of environmental variability; 2. Establishing a mechanistic basis for modeling climate effects on Lyme disease risk; 3. Determining long-term trends in tree seed production as a consequence of changes in climate, ontogeny, and the relative abundance of species; 4. Understanding top-down effects of mouse predators on rodent-tick interactions; and 5. Develop and iteratively evaluate forecasts for Lyme disease risk from the component parts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.