Collaborative Research: Patterns and processes of abrupt Arctic warming based on paleoclimate observations and models

合作研究：基于古气候观测和模型的北极突然变暖的模式和过程

• 批准号: 1948005
• 负责人: Nicholas McKay
• 金额: $ 52.79万
• 依托单位: Northern Arizona University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-07-01 至 2025-06-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1948005&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Patterns; processes; abrupt

The rate at which the Arctic has warmed during the past 50 years is likely faster than anytime during the past 7 millennia, and temperatures will likely continue to rise during the coming centuries. This research uses geological evidence and model simulations to study the Arctic system’s response to past warming events that had similar rate and duration to that of modern warming. This project provides detailed insights into the temperature and ocean-atmosphere circulation changes associated with abrupt warming events in the Arctic, thus providing a better understanding of the potential response to future warming. Through outreach efforts, this project connects K–12 students in underserved communities to higher-education opportunities and supports multiple early career researchers, including graduate and undergraduate students. Finally, the database and model output generated from this project will be made publicly available in community-standard formats and archives, thus accelerating advances in Arctic science beyond the life of this project.This study focuses on the feedbacks and processes that determine the interactions of multiple components of the Arctic system as they have undergone rapid warming during the recent deglacial period: sea ice, coupled ocean and atmosphere, and terrestrial Arctic climate. This project tests the hypothesis that during past abrupt warming events, Arctic temperature and moisture changes exhibit a common spatial pattern, strongly controlled by proximity to sea-ice changes and paths of moisture transport. The researchers employ a three-pronged approach: (1) Quantify the climate response to three periods of abrupt warming (14,500; 11,700; and 8,000 years ago) by generating new paleoclimate data — specifically new hydroclimate inferences based on compound-specific isotopes and more accurate chronological control based on a large number of new radiocarbon ages — using existing lake sediment cores from sites that fill major data gaps; (2) Reconstruct the spatiotemporal pattern associated with these abrupt warming events using an updated Arctic-wide paleoclimate database; and (3) Compare the paleoclimate database with existing and new global climate simulations, including those using state-of-the-art isotope-enabled models to assess mechanistic links between components of the Arctic and global climate system during abrupt warming.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

在过去的50年里，北极变暖的速度可能比过去7000年里的任何时候都要快，而且在未来的几个世纪里，气温可能会继续上升。本研究利用地质证据和模式模拟来研究北极系统对过去与现代变暖速度和持续时间相似的变暖事件的反应。该项目提供了与北极突然变暖事件相关的温度和海洋-大气环流变化的详细见解，从而更好地了解对未来变暖的潜在反应。通过外展努力，该项目将服务不足社区的K-12学生与高等教育机会联系起来，并为包括研究生和本科生在内的多个早期职业研究人员提供支持。最后，该项目产生的数据库和模型输出将以社区标准格式和档案公开提供，从而在该项目结束后加速北极科学的进步。本研究侧重于反馈和过程，这些反馈和过程决定了北极系统的多个组成部分在最近的冰期经历快速变暖时的相互作用：海冰、海洋和大气耦合以及北极陆地气候。该项目验证了这样一个假设，即在过去的突变变暖事件中，北极的温度和湿度变化表现出一种共同的空间格局，这种格局受到邻近海冰变化和水分输送路径的强烈控制。研究人员采用了三管齐下的方法：(1)通过生成新的古气候数据（特别是基于化合物特定同位素的新的水文气候推断和基于大量新的放射性碳年龄的更精确的年代控制），量化气候对三个突变变暖时期（14500年前、11700年前和8000年前）的响应，利用现有的湖泊沉积物岩芯填补了主要的数据空白；(2)利用更新后的全北极古气候数据库重建与这些突变变暖事件相关的时空格局；(3)将古气候数据库与现有的和新的全球气候模拟进行比较，包括那些使用最先进的同位素支持模式来评估北极和全球气候系统各组成部分在突变变暖期间的机制联系的模拟。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Early Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet Retreat Influenced Summer Atmospheric Circulation in Baffin Bay

• DOI: 10.1029/2023gl103428
• 发表时间: 2023-06
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: E. Thomas;A. Cluett;M. Erb;N. McKay;J. Briner;I. Castañeda;M. Corcoran;O. Cowling;D. Gorbey-D.-Go