SG: Synergistic effects of forest fragmentation and droughts on tropical plant demography

SG：森林破碎化和干旱对热带植物种群的协同影响

• 批准号: 1948607
• 负责人: Emilio Bruna
• 金额: $ 20万
• 依托单位: University of Florida
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-02-15 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1948607&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SG; Synergistic; effects; forest; fragmentation

Droughts have many negative effects on species in forest ecosystems, including increased risk of population decline and even extinction. It has been hypothesized that the effects of drought are especially severe for populations found in the fragments of habitat that remain following deforestation. This is thought to be especially true for plant species in biodiversity rich tropical forests, which are often especially sensitive to changes in environmental conditions. The research team will use a long-term dataset on plant growth, reproduction, and mortality collected in the Central Amazon to determine how droughts influence the risk of plant extinction in rain forest fragments. In addition to answering an important unresolved ecological question, the results will help those tasked with managing biologically, socially, and economically critical forest ecosystems for a future in which droughts are predicted to become more frequent or intense. In doing so the investigators will be training early-career scientists in advanced statistics and mathematical modeling, making several ecologically valuable datasets publicly available, and curating an art museum exhibit about rain forests and their global importance to society. To determine how droughts and deforestation interact to increase the risk that plant populations will go extinct, the researchers will use previously collected data on the growth, reproduction, and mortality of thousands of individuals of a plant species from the central Amazon: the understory herb Heliconia acmuniata. These data were collected in both unbroken rain forest and experimentally isolated forest fragments near the city of Manaus, Brazil. The researchers will first use four decades of data on rainfall in the region to identify drought years and categorize drought intensity. They will then compare plant growth, reproduction, and mortality before and after droughts, as well as how long after droughts any differences can be detected. Finally, these statistical analyses, along with the analysis of drought frequency, will be used to calibrate mathematical models with which they will simulate future population sizes under alternative drought scenarios predicted for the Amazon. The results of these simulations will indicate if the probability that populations will go extinct because of drought is greater in unbroken rain forest or forest fragments, and if this probability changes when droughts are more frequent or severe.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

干旱对森林生态系统中的物种有许多负面影响，包括增加了种群减少甚至灭绝的风险。据推测，干旱的影响对森林砍伐后留下的生境碎片中的种群特别严重。据认为，对于生物多样性丰富的热带森林中的植物物种来说尤其如此，这些物种往往对环境条件的变化特别敏感。该研究小组将使用在亚马逊中部收集的植物生长，繁殖和死亡率的长期数据集，以确定干旱如何影响雨林片段中植物灭绝的风险。除了回答一个重要的未解决的生态问题外，研究结果还将有助于那些负责管理生物，社会和经济关键森林生态系统的人，以便在未来干旱预计将变得更加频繁或激烈。在这样做的过程中，调查人员将在高级统计和数学建模方面培训早期职业科学家，公开提供几个具有生态价值的数据集，并策划一个关于雨林及其对社会的全球重要性的艺术博物馆展览。 为了确定干旱和森林砍伐如何相互作用以增加植物种群灭绝的风险，研究人员将使用先前收集的关于亚马逊中部植物物种的数千个个体的生长，繁殖和死亡率的数据：林下草本植物Heliconia acetylata。这些数据是在巴西马瑙斯市附近的完整雨林和实验隔离森林片段中收集的。研究人员将首先使用该地区40年的降雨数据来确定干旱年份并对干旱强度进行分类。然后，他们将比较干旱前后的植物生长、繁殖和死亡率，以及干旱后多久可以检测到任何差异。最后，这些统计分析，沿着干旱频率分析，将用于校准数学模型，用这些模型模拟在预测的亚马逊河其他干旱情况下的未来人口规模。这些模拟的结果将表明，在未被破坏的雨林或森林碎片中，种群因干旱而灭绝的概率是否更大，以及当干旱更频繁或更严重时，这种概率是否会发生变化。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Demography of the understory herb H eliconia acuminata ( H eliconiaceae) in an experimentally fragmented tropical landscape

实验性破碎热带景观中林下草本植物 Heliconia acuminata (Heliconiaceae) 的人口统计

• DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4174
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Ecology
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: Bruna, Emilio M.;Uriarte, María;Darrigo, Maria Rosa;Rubim, Paulo;Jurinitz, Cristiane F.;Scott, Eric R.;Ferreira da Silva, Osmaildo;Kress, W. John
• 通讯作者: Kress, W. John

Demography of the understory herb Heliconia acuminata (Heliconiaceae) in an experimentally fragmented tropical landscape

实验性破碎热带景观中林下草本赫蕉（Heliconiaceae）的种群统计

• DOI: 10.5061/dryad.stqjq2c8d
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Dryad
• 作者: Bruna, Emilio;Uriarte, María;Darrigo, Maria Rosa;Rubim, Paulo;Jurinitz, Cristiane;Scott, Eric;Ferreira da Silva, Osmaildo;Kress, John W.;Dynamics, Biological of
• 通讯作者: Dynamics, Biological of

Delayed effects of climate on vital rates lead to demographic divergence in Amazonian forest fragments

气候对生命率的延迟影响导致亚马逊森林碎片的人口差异

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15900
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Global Change Biology
• 影响因子: 11.6
• 作者: Scott, Eric R.;Uriarte, María;Bruna, Emilio M.
• 通讯作者: Bruna, Emilio M.