P2C2: Constraining the Physics that Regulate Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity through Simulation of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Eocene Paleoclimates

P2C2：通过模拟末次盛冰期 (LGM) 和始新世古气候来约束调节平衡气候敏感性的物理原理

• 批准号: 2002397
• 负责人: Christopher Poulsen
• 金额: $ 38.47万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2023-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2002397&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Constraining; Physics; Regulate; Equilibrium

This project seeks to investigate the causes and magnitude of Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The goal of the proposed project is twofold: (1) to use paleoclimate reconstructions of past cold and warm climates, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Early Eocene, to constrain ECS and its state dependence in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) series including the latest CESM2, and (2) to provide a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the physics that govern past and future ECS. The proposed work will include development of new LGM and Eocene simulations using CESM2 and comparison of ECS in CESM2 simulations with existing LGM and Eocene simulations performed with earlier versions of the model (CESM1.2. and CCSM4) that have very different physics packages. Each simulation will be judged against a synthesis of proxy data and a new paleoclimate reanalysis product in order to evaluate the performance of the CESM versions and to identify the best estimate of ECS. The researchers will analyze this suite of simulations using climate feedback decomposition and radiative locking techniques to investigate the physical processes that regulate ECS under LGM, present, and Eocene conditions. The potential Broader Impacts include model simulations of the LGM and Eocene that would be made publicly available for the broad paleoclimate community for further investigation and model-data comparisons. Other Broader Impacts include outreach activities planned in collaboration with the Earth Camp Program (University of Michigan) to develop a hands-on climate learning module at Camp Davies Field station with the aim to broaden participation of underrepresented minority students in the Earth Sciences. In addition, the project will support the training of an early career scientist (Post-doctoral researcher).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目旨在调查地球平衡气候敏感性（ECS）的原因和幅度。拟议项目的目标是双重的：（1）使用过去寒冷和温暖气候的古气候重建，末次冰期最大期（LGM）和早始新世，以限制ECS及其在社区地球系统模型（CESM）系列（包括最新的CESM 2）中的状态依赖性，以及（2）提供对过去和未来ECS的物理学的全面机械理解。拟议的工作将包括使用CESM2开发新的LGM和始新世模拟，并将CESM2模拟中的ECS与使用早期版本模型（CESM1.2）进行的现有LGM和始新世模拟进行比较。和CCSM 4），它们具有非常不同的物理包。每个模拟将被判断对综合的代理数据和一个新的古气候再分析产品，以评估CESM版本的性能，并确定ECS的最佳估计。研究人员将使用气候反馈分解和辐射锁定技术分析这套模拟，以研究在LGM，现在和始新世条件下调节ECS的物理过程。潜在的更广泛的影响包括LGM和始新世的模型模拟，这些模型模拟将公开提供给广大的古气候社区，以进行进一步的调查和模型数据比较。其他更广泛的影响包括计划与地球营方案（密歇根大学）合作开展的外联活动，在戴维斯营野外站开发一个实际操作的气候学习模块，目的是扩大代表性不足的少数民族学生对地球科学的参与。此外，该项目将支持早期职业科学家（博士后研究员）的培训。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Assessment of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Through Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum

通过模拟末次盛冰期评估共同体地球系统模型第二版的平衡气候敏感性

• DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091220
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Zhu, Jiang;Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.;Brady, Esther C.;Poulsen, Christopher J.;Tierney, Jessica E.;Lofverstrom, Marcus;DiNezio, Pedro
• 通讯作者: DiNezio, Pedro

LGM Paleoclimate Constraints Inform Cloud Parameterizations and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

LGM 古气候约束为 CESM2 中的云参数化和平衡气候敏感性提供信息

• DOI: 10.1029/2021ms002776
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
• 影响因子: 6.8
• 作者: Zhu, Jiang;Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.;Brady, Esther C.;Gettelman, Andrew;Bacmeister, Julio T.;Neale, Richard B.;Poulsen, Christopher J.;Shaw, Jonah K.;McGraw, Zachary S.;Kay, Jennifer E.
• 通讯作者: Kay, Jennifer E.

High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate

CMIP6 模型中的高气候敏感性不受古气候支持

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0764-6
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Nature Climate Change
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Zhu, Jiang;Poulsen, Christopher J.;Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.
• 通讯作者: Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.