Doctoral Dissertation Research: Legal Preferences and Civil War Outcomes

内战是出了名的难以解决，而且经常有可能再次发生。该项目将研究法律偏好如何影响和平谈判、内战的结束、内战的结果以及和平的持续时间。更具体地说，该项目将重点关注叛乱分子和政府法律体系在突出问题上的分歧，以及这种法律偏好的差异如何影响冲突解决和冲突后社会的结构。该项目将采用混合方法，利用冲突与和平谈判期间交战各方法律偏好的档案数据进行案例研究，以及对近70年来交战各方的定量分析，提出一种关于内战中和平与冲突的新理论，同时涉及众多学科。这项研究将产生一个现有的和反叛的法律体系的数据集，这些法律体系在几个理论驱动的问题上进行了分解，包括产权、司法、社会关系、成员/公民身份和法律来源。这些关于国内冲突的二元数据将详细说明交战各方的具体法律制度，以及它们的法律偏好、法律上的权力分享和冲突的结束/再次发生的相容性。这项研究将为跨越时间和空间的内战的理论、实证和公众理解提供信息。此外，数据和调查结果将公开传播，使决策者、学者和公众能够更好地确定冲突管理和结束内战的流行方法如何对和平产生长期影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Civil wars are notoriously difficult to resolve and often times likely to recur. This project will study how legal preferences shape peace negotiations, the termination of civil wars, the outcome of civil wars, and the duration of peace. More particularly, this project will focus on the divergence of insurgent and government legal systems over salient issues and how this discrepancy in legal preferences might affect conflict resolution and structuring the post-conflict society. Incorporating a mixed method approach with a case study using archival data of the warring parties’ legal preferences during the conflict and peace negotiations, as well as quantitative analyses of dyads of warring parties across a time period of nearly 70 years, this project will present a novel theory of peace and conflict in civil wars while implicating numerous disciplines. The study will produce a dataset of incumbent and rebel legal systems disaggregated across several theoretically-driven issues, including property rights, justice, societal relations, membership/citizenship, and source of law. These dyadic data on intrastate conflict will detail specific legal regimes of the warring parties, as well as the compatibility of their legal preferences, de jure power-sharing, and the termination/recurrence of conflict. This study will inform theoretical, empirical, and public understandings of civil wars across time and space. Moreover, data and findings will be publicly disseminated to allow policymakers, scholars, and the public to better determine how popular approaches to conflict management and termination of civil war can have a long-term impact on peace.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.