Collaborative Research: MRA: Quantifying phenological coherence and seasonal predictability across NEON and USA-NPN monitoring sites

合作研究：MRA：量化 NEON 和 USA-NPN 监测点的物候一致性和季节可预测性

• 批准号: 2017831
• 负责人: Mark Schwartz
• 金额: $ 52.32万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-01-01 至 2024-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2017831&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; MRA; Quantifying; phenological

The seasonal timing, or phenology, of many North American plant species is in flux with accelerating environmental change. The influence of factors such as temperature and precipitation on plant growth, as weather patterns change from spring to summer, vary from place-to-place, month-to-month, and for different plant species. An improved understanding of these relationships revealed by this research will support development of more accurate and diverse models of spring plant growth stages. These models may then be able to predict which trees and shrubs will be favored in different regions with future environmental change, to the benefit of many types of societal planning. Further, the project will implement national-scale, long-lead forecasts for new measures representing the spring season, which will also be relevant for annual agricultural, horticultural, and forestry management planning. Additional broader impacts of this research include: (1) developing junior high school materials and programming for students to engage with phenological observations and real-time weather data; and (2) enlisting tens of thousands of non-scientist volunteer observers to broaden participation in citizen science spring phenology data collection campaigns through the USA-National Phenology Network (NPN) Nature’s Notebook program.This research is guided by three fundamental questions that span spatial and temporal scales: (1) Which species exhibit variation in phenological response across latitude, elevation, or other gradients? (2) Does the influence of variables that drive phenological events (such as accumulated warmth and light intensity) increase or decrease as the season progresses, and does this vary geographically, with the onset of spring’s progression poleward and upslope? (3) At what lead times (days, weeks, months, or seasons) can climate forecasts reliably predict phenological behavior at monitoring sites? By combining recently developed state-of-the-art weather and climate forecasts and robust statistical post-processing techniques with rich ground-based phenological data resources from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and other large-scale networks, this project will: (1) develop and refine models of spring plant phenological activity for dozens of species; (2) evaluate the influence of changes in climate driver variables over the course of the spring season—resulting from changes in the structure of large-scale circulation patterns—on predicting phenological events; (3) determine which species exhibit varying phenological response across spatial gradients, and therefore should be accounted for in predictive models; and (4) assess the potential predictability of those models on seasonal to decadal time horizons to operationalize long-term forecasting by the USA-NPN. Finally, research knowledge gained from this project will provide valuable insights toward enhanced understanding of the much more challenging plant-climate interactions in autumn.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

随着环境变化的加速，许多北美植物物种的季节性时间或物候正在发生变化。随着气候模式从春季到夏季的变化，温度和降水等因素对植物生长的影响因地而异，因月而异，对于不同的植物种类也不同。这项研究揭示的对这些关系的更好理解将有助于开发更准确和多样化的春季植物生长阶段模型。然后，这些模型可能能够预测在未来环境变化的不同地区，哪些树木和灌木将受到青睐，这将有利于多种类型的社会规划。此外，该项目将对代表春季的新措施实施全国范围的长期领先预报，这也将与年度农业、园艺和林业管理规划相关。这项研究的其他更广泛的影响包括：(1)为学生开发初中材料和编程，以参与物候观察和实时天气数据；和(2)招募数以万计的非科学家志愿者观察员，通过美国-国家物候学网络(NPN)自然笔记本计划，扩大公民科学春季物候数据收集活动的参与。这项研究以三个跨越时空尺度的基本问题为指导：(1)哪些物种的物候响应在纬度、海拔或其他梯度上表现出变化？(2)驱动物候事件的变量(如累积的温度和光照强度)的影响是随着季节的进展而增加还是减少，以及这种影响是否因地理而异，(3)气候预报能在什么时间(天、周、月或季节)可靠地预测监测点的物候行为？通过将最近发展的最先进的天气和气候预报和强大的统计后处理技术与来自国家生态观测网络(NEON)和其他大型网络的丰富的地面物候数据资源相结合，该项目将：(1)开发和完善数十个物种的春季植物物候活动模型；(2)评估春季气候驱动变量的变化--由大尺度环流模式结构的变化--对预测物候事件的影响；(3)确定哪些物种表现出不同的空间梯度的物候响应，因此应在预测模型中考虑；以及(4)评估这些模型在季节到十年的时间范围内的潜在可预测性，以实施美国国家气象局的长期预报。最后，从这个项目中获得的研究知识将提供有价值的见解，以加强对秋季更具挑战性的植物-气候相互作用的理解。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Do Carefully Timed Email Messages Increase Accuracy and Precision in Citizen Scientists’ Reports of Events?

精心定时的电子邮件是否可以提高公民科学家事件报告的准确性和精确性？

• DOI: 10.5334/cstp.464
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Citizen Science: Theory and Practice
• 作者: Crimmins, Theresa;Posthumus, Erin
• 通讯作者: Posthumus, Erin

The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory

• DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13955
• 发表时间: 2022-08
• 期刊: Methods in Ecology and Evolution
• 影响因子: 6.6
• 作者: Abigail S. L. Lewis;C. Rollinson;A. Allyn;Jaime Ashander;S. Brodie;Cole B. Brookson;Elyssa L. Collins-Elyssa-L.-Coll

Diverging Northern Hemisphere Trends in Meteorological Versus Ecological Indicators of Spring Onset in CMIP6

• DOI: 10.1029/2023gl102833
• 发表时间: 2023-04
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Xiaolu Li;T. Ault;Colin P. Evans;F. Lehner;C. Carrillo;Alison Donnelly;T. Crimmins;Amanda S. Gallinat;M. D. Schwartz

Conservation ethics in the time of the pandemic: Does increasing remote access advance social justice?

大流行时期的保护伦理：增加远程访问会推动社会正义吗？

• DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109788
• 发表时间: 2022-12
• 期刊: Biological conservation
• 影响因子: 5.9