PREEVENTS Track 2: Collaborative Research: Development and testing of volcanic eruption models and forecasts through multidisciplinary data synthesis at Alaska volcanoes

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Explosive volcanic eruptions pose an increasing hazard to a growing, globally connected population. Alaska has roughly fifty-four historically active volcanoes with multiple explosive eruptions per year that threaten local populations, infrastructure, and air traffic. For example, the 1989-1990 eruption of Redoubt volcano caused failure of all four engines of a commercial jet, resulting in more than two vertical miles of airplane free-fall. Fortunately in that instance the aircraft made a safe landing, but accurate forecasting of volcanic eruptions remains challenging many years later. Accurate volcanic eruption forecasting is hampered by the complex and dynamic nature of volcanoes. Recent studies, however, have shown that combining multidisciplinary observations of past unrest can yield accurate forecasts of eruptions from well-monitored volcanoes. In this project the re-analysis and combination of multidisciplinary observations of past volcanic unrest for eight Alaska volcanoes will help to develop a suite of eruption forecast models. These models will be provided to the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) for operational use to improve AVO's eruption forecasting capabilities and mitigate eruption hazards. Additionally, by developing and sharing education modules and courses with teachers from communities near active volcanoes, the populations most directly impacted by volcanic eruptions will be better prepared.This project will capitalize on the wealth of AVO data, the multidisciplinary expertise of volcano observatory scientists, and the analytical power provided by a team of graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and researchers. Our target Alaska volcanoes encompass a range of eruptive behaviors and signs of unrest. Through data reanalysis and multidisciplinary synthesis we will advance our understanding of these dynamic systems and identify commonalities in unrest signatures. Our project will build valuable eruption models for each target volcano, including one complex physics-based model and eight multicomponent ensemble models. These models will be used as input parameters into a probabilistic eruption forecasting framework that will incorporate geologically-derived eruption histories, geophysical and geochemical monitoring data, and expert elicitation to forecast the possible eruption outcomes and threats. This project will advance our understanding of the fundamental processes that lead to volcanic unrest or eruption and improve our capabilities to forecast eruptions and mitigate associated hazards. These results will be applicable to a range of volcanoes worldwide.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.