Nutritional ecology of climate change: Impacts on Northwest Atlantic fishes

气候变化的营养生态学：对西北大西洋鱼类的影响

• 批准号: 2023536
• 负责人: Nathan Furey
• 金额: $ 55.93万
• 依托单位: University of New Hampshire
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-09-01 至 2025-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2023536&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Nutritional; ecology; climate; change; Impacts

Warming oceans are changing the distributions of fish populations worldwide. However, observed shifts in distribution differ from one species to the next, which lead to changes in the marine community and the biological interactions. Altered predator-prey relationships could force a switch in diet, which might influence growth and affect a fish’s ability to persist in the environment. This project aims to predict how fish behaviors contribute to responses of species, populations, and ecosystems to continued environmental change. The study is focused on the distribution and diets of fishes in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, one of the most rapidly warming marine systems on the planet. An existing long-term data set (1973 – present) forms the basis for a retrospective analysis of how fish populations and their diets have changed over the past five decades. The model developed from these data is testing how observed changes in distribution and diet are related to species-specific behaviors and movements. This information is incorporated into predictions of the nature and quality of fish diets in the year 2055 using different climate projections. The broader impacts are focused on broadening participation in STEM careers, which includes training of students and a post-doc. To advance the recruitment and education of future scientists, project results are being integrated into the Gulf of Maine Research Institute’s LabVenture program, which serves 10,000 elementary students in Maine annually. In parallel, the project is partnering with the Seacoast Science Center in New Hampshire to develop and test educational modules. Research findings are being communicated to fisheries managers locally and nationally and are contributing to science-based resource management. Increased water temperatures impact the energetics of individual organisms directly by increasing metabolism and indirectly by altering overlap with prey as a result of taxon-specific shifts in population distributions. Species-specific shifts in spatial distributions and diets could mediate or exacerbate the metabolic consequences of warming waters. Furthermore, food web structure, and any temporal shifts in its composition, could affect ecosystem stability. Behavioral flexibility in diet and space use could confer resilience of individual species to climate change, but empirical evidence is lacking. This project combines spatial statistics, multivariate analyses, and food web models to understand how warming waters impact individuals, species interactions, and community stability, as well as identify taxon-specific behaviors that could confer resilience. This project is conducting retrospective analyses to quantify both decadal-scale shifts in fish distributions and diet, and species-level flexibility in diet and movements. From these analyses, spatially explicit predator-prey interactions are being projected into the future (2055) using three climate change scenarios to predict novel interactions and changes in diet for important predatory fishes. Linkages between behavior and resilience to warming waters are being tested by comparing the energetic consequences of diet shifts between behaviorally flexible and inflexible species. Quantifying interaction strengths among food web components is providing insight into how flexibility of individual taxa affects broader food web structure and how community stability is maintained. This project is jointly funded by the Biological Oceanography Program and the Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

海洋变暖正在改变世界范围内鱼类种群的分布。然而，观察到的分布变化在不同物种之间是不同的，这导致海洋群落和生物相互作用的变化。捕食者-猎物关系的改变可能会迫使食谱发生变化，这可能会影响鱼类的生长并影响其在环境中持续生存的能力。该项目旨在预测鱼类的行为如何有助于物种、种群和生态系统对持续环境变化的反应。这项研究的重点是西北大西洋的鱼类分布和食物，这是地球上变暖最快的海洋系统之一。现有的长期数据集(1973年至今)构成了对鱼类种群及其饮食在过去50年中如何变化的回顾分析的基础。根据这些数据开发的模型正在测试观察到的分布和饮食变化与特定物种的行为和运动之间的关系。这些信息被纳入使用不同气候预测的2055年鱼类饲料的性质和质量的预测中。更广泛的影响集中在扩大对STEM职业的参与，其中包括对学生和博士后的培训。为了促进未来科学家的招募和教育，项目成果正被纳入缅因湾研究所的LabVenture计划，该计划每年为缅因州1万名小学生提供服务。与此同时，该项目正在与新罕布夏州的海岸科学中心合作开发和测试教育模块。正在将研究结果传达给地方和国家渔业管理人员，并为基于科学的资源管理作出贡献。水温升高通过增加新陈代谢直接影响个体生物体的能量，通过改变种群分布中特定分类单元的变化而间接改变与猎物的重叠。特定物种的空间分布和饮食变化可能会调解或加剧海水变暖的新陈代谢后果。此外，食物网络结构及其组成的任何时间变化都可能影响生态系统的稳定性。在饮食和空间使用方面的行为灵活性可以增强个体物种对气候变化的适应能力，但缺乏经验证据。该项目结合了空间统计、多变量分析和食物网模型，以了解变暖的海水如何影响个体、物种相互作用和群落稳定，并确定可能赋予弹性的特定分类群行为。该项目正在进行回溯性分析，以量化鱼类分布和饮食的十年尺度变化，以及饮食和活动的物种水平灵活性。根据这些分析，空间上明确的捕食者-猎物相互作用被预测到未来(2055年)，使用三种气候变化情景来预测新的相互作用和重要捕食性鱼类的食物变化。通过比较行为灵活的物种和不灵活的物种之间的饮食变化的能量后果，正在测试行为和对变暖的水域的适应能力之间的联系。量化食物网各组成部分之间的相互作用强度，有助于洞察个体分类群的灵活性如何影响更广泛的食物网结构，以及如何维持群落稳定。该项目由生物海洋学计划和既定的激励竞争性研究计划(EPSCoR)共同资助。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。