How Do Fluctuations in Summer Temperature Affect Monsoonal Events?

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This project will document how the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon has varied over recent millennia and investigate how variations in the Indian Summer Monsoon are linked to fluctuations in summer temperature. This knowledge is crucial to improving our understanding of the mechanisms driving precipitation variability in a highly populous, agriculturally-dependent region. The quantitative records of precipitation data produced by this project will be used to refine climate models simulating future precipitation conditions and thereby, help society to better anticipate the potential impacts associated with projected climate change. This project will broaden participation of undergraduate and graduate students in field and laboratory-based geosciences, advancing the STEM workforce with well-trained geoscientists. This interdisciplinary project will strengthen collaborations between environmental scientists both nationally and internationally. The historical instrumental record for the Indian Summer Monsoon is too short to adequately document the full range of long-term variability in the strength of the Indian Summer Monsoon. Lengthier records of long-term and abrupt fluctuations in the Indian Summer Monsoon will provide insight into the behavior of the monsoon system. This information will be used to improve the predictive abilities of existing models simulating the potential responses of summer monsoon precipitation to on-going and projected environmental variability. The biological, chemical, and physical properties of sediment cores recovered from lakes will be used to determine if precipitation is correlated with summer temperature during the past, and if the widespread abandonment of Bronze Age settlements corresponds to a short-lived interval of extreme aridity. This project will contribute significantly to our understanding of how changes in the mean state of environmental systems can influence the global monsoon.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.