RAPID: Election Result Anomaly Detection for 2020

在我们这个时代，随着金钱和思想在互联网上迅速传播，“所有政治都是地方性的”这一古老观点可能不像过去那样正确。但美国的选举管理仍然是顽固的地方性的。因此，选举结果由州和地方机构以特殊的格式公布。任何在国家层面上，甚至在几个州之间对选举结果的研究，都需要对不同的格式进行艰苦的组合。该项目构建了一个系统，可以有效地将来自多个州的选举结果数据集组装成一种格式。 此外，该项目还实施了各种算法，以快速、广泛地检测和可视化选举结果中的异常情况。该系统将迅速标记2020年11月大选初步选举结果数据中的重大异常。这一分析将向公众提供，并提供给候选人、政党和选举管理人员。候选人、政党和选举管理人员对当地情况有详细的了解，因此能够评估其选区的任何异常情况是否有合理的解释，或者是否需要进一步调查。即使在最好的情况下，举行一次值得信赖的选举也会带来许多后勤方面的挑战。在2020年，除了选举技术的最新变化和广泛承认的网络攻击威胁外，总统选举年爆发的流行病也是前所未有的复杂情况。该项目将提供选举核查工具箱中的一个重要工具，帮助在选举结果最终得到核证之前及早查明异常情况。候选人和其他利益相关方将能够利用这一分析，及时决定是否质疑或要求对选举结果进行调查-在确定获奖者之前。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

In our era, with money and ideas traveling quickly over the internet, the old saw that “all politics is local” may be less true than it used to be. But the administration of elections in the United States remains doggedly local. As a result, election results are published by state and local agencies in idiosyncratic formats. Any study of election results at a national level, or even across several states, requires painstaking assembly of disparate formats. This project builds a system to efficiently assemble election result data sets from several states into a single format. In addition, the project implements a variety of algorithms for fast, broad detection and visualization of anomalies in election results. The system will quickly flag significant anomalies in preliminary election result data from the general election in November 2020. This analysis will be made available publicly and to candidates, parties and election administrators. Candidates, parties and election administrators have the detailed local knowledge required to assess whether any particular anomaly in their district has a legitimate explanation or whether further investigation is appropriate.In the best of times, conducting a trustworthy election poses many logistical challenges. In 2020, in addition to recent changes in election technology and widely acknowledged threats of cyberattack, there is the unprecedented complication of a raging pandemic in a Presidential election year. The project will provide a significant tool in the election verification toolbox by helping to identify anomalies well before election results are finally certified. Candidates and other interested parties will be able to use this analysis to inform timely decisions about whether to challenge or demand investigations into election results – before the determination of winners is set in stone.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.