Doctoral Dissertation Research Grant: The Interactive Effects of Risk and Climatic Variation on Food Storage Behavior

这个项目将研究风险作为人类状况固有的一部分，如何导致采取复杂的行为模式，特别是当它涉及到面临不稳定气候条件的自给农民的决定时。人类学家和考古学家之前对这一主题的研究都依赖于经济效用理论，以得出在特定的社会环境环境中是否期望风险规避或风险倾向行为的预测。考古学在调查人们如何应对风险方面处于独特的地位，因为它能够利用人类经验的历史深度。虽然工业化农业在今天的全球粮食供应中占主导地位，但世界上许多地区仍然依赖自给农业。随着全球气温的升高，这些自给自足的农民面临着越来越多的对可持续性的担忧，而且可能还没有建立政府安全网来保护他们免受作物歉收的影响。人们将设计和适应什么样的行为来应对日益增加的气候波动和随之而来的风险？通过研究过去人们如何采取措施来降低风险，研究人员和政策制定者可以更好地了解今天人们将如何应对气候变化的经济影响。该项目的重点是犹他州一个有长期人类居住历史的地区。居民们采用了一系列储存农产品的策略，包括在困难和危险的地方建造储存容器，这些容器放置在峡谷壁的高处。是什么推动了这种密集存储策略的实施？为了解决这个问题，研究人员在现有的效用理论和行为生态学框架的基础上，得出了解释不同食物储存策略的预测。利用考古现场数据、树木年轮重建的区域古气候，以及从储存容器中收集的有机物质中新产生的放射性碳年代，研究人员将评估年降水量和农业生产力的变化如何影响农产品储存决策。由此产生的模型将成为理解人类风险缓解行为的重要工具，具有广泛的适用性。所产生的数据将有助于编制区域年表，帮助更清楚地了解史前人类在该地区的活动情况，并帮助资源管理人员更好地保护和保存这些考古资源。该项目的合作重点为公众提供了独特的实践教育经验，并为研究生和本科生提供了宝贵的培训机会。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project will examine how risk, an inherent part of the human condition, can result in the adoption of complex behavioral patterns, specifically as it relates to the decisions of subsistence farmers facing volatile climatic conditions. Previous research on the topic by both anthropologists and archaeologists relies on economic utility theory to derive predictions about whether to expect risk-averse or risk-prone behavior in specific socio-environmental circumstances. Archaeology is uniquely situated for investigating how people cope with risk because of its ability to draw on the historical depth of the human experience. While industrialized agriculture dominates the global food supply today, many regions of the world still rely on subsistence agriculture. With increasing global temperatures, these subsistence farmers face growing concerns about sustainability and may not have established government safety nets in place to protect them from crop failures. What behaviors will people devise and adapt to cope with increasing climatic volatility and accompanying risk? By studying how past people implemented practices to mitigate risk, researchers and policymakers can better understand how people today will respond to the economic effects of a changing climate. The project focuses on a region in Utah with a history of long-term human occupation. Inhabitants employed a range of strategies for storing agricultural products, including the construction of storage containers placed high in canyon walls in difficult and dangerous to access locations. What drove the imposition of such intensive storage strategies? To address this question, the researchers build upon existing frameworks of utility theory and behavioral ecology to derive predictions explaining the diverse food storage strategies. Using archaeological field data, a regional paleoclimatic reconstruction from tree rings, and newly generated radiocarbon dates from organic material collected from storage containers, the researchers will evaluate how changes in annual precipitation and agricultural productivity affected decisions to store agricultural products through time. The resultant model will be an important tool for understanding risk mitigation behaviors in humans, with broad applicability. The data generated will contribute to regional chronologies, helping to build a clearer picture of prehistoric human occupation of the region, and help resource managers better protect and preserve these archaeological resources. The collaborative focus of the project provides a unique hands-on educational experience for members of the public, as well as providing invaluable training opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.