Collaborative Research: Predictive Intelligence for Pandemic Prevention, Theme 4: Social and Behavioral Obstacles and Supports

尽管流行病自古以来就威胁着人类文明，但如何预测和预防它们仍然是一个紧迫的挑战，需要创新的见解和做法。大流行是通过偶然的“完美风暴”出现的：病原体的分子变化、气候的渐进趋势、潜在宿主之间生态相互作用的微妙变化，以及人们的个人行为决定，所有这些都是为了弥补一种有趣但罕见的已知疾病的新变种与一场事关生存的全球危机之间的差异。因此，要能够预测大流行威胁的出现，需要一种完全综合的、多学科的方法，能够考虑到这些领域在各种相互作用范围内的复杂性，以预测并在理想情况下进行预防。这次研讨会是将来自社会和行为科学、生物学、工程学和计算机科学的学术社区的专家聚集在一起讨论如何将每个社区采取的方法整合成更有效、更统一的大流行预测科学的四个研讨会之一。该研讨会的重点是加深对人类态度、社会行为以及潜在的驱动因素如何形成传染病传播模式以及控制和根除努力的理解。这一基本认识反过来将有助于做出预防和控制大流行的决策，使我们在面对未来的大流行威胁时做好更好的准备。研讨会的重点是四个至关重要的主题领域，涉及文化传播、信息和沟通、公平和可持续发展。来自此次研讨会的白皮书将为将社会和行为科学的见解纳入预测情报和流行病预防提供重要指导。它将为未来的研究投资、机构能力建设和其他政策重点提供信息，旨在保护美国和世界免受不可避免的未来大混乱的影响。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Although pandemics have threatened human civilization since ancient times, how to predict and prevent them remains a pressing challenge, calling for innovative insights and practices. Pandemics emerge through incidental ‘perfect storms’: molecular changes in pathogens, gradual trends in climate, subtle shifts in ecological interactions among potential hosts, and individual behavioral decisions by people, all colluding to make up the difference between an interesting but rare new variant of a known disease and an existential worldwide crisis. Being able to predict the emergence of pandemic threats, therefore, requires a fully integrated, multidisciplinary approach, able to consider the complexity of these realms across scales of interaction to predict and, ideally, prevent. This workshop is one of four bringing experts from scholarly communities in the social and behavioral sciences, biology, engineering, and computer science together to discuss how to integrate the approaches taken by each community into a more effective, unified science of pandemic prediction. The focus of this workshop is on developing understanding of how human attitudes, social behavior, and the drivers underlying both shape patterns of infectious-disease transmission and efforts at control and eradication. This fundamental understanding in turn will facilitate pandemic prevention and control decisions that leave us better prepared when confronted with future pandemic threats.The workshop is structured to focus on four topical areas of crucial importance, dealing with cultural transmission, information and communication, equity, and sustainability. The white paper that comes from this workshop will provide important guidance for incorporating insights into the social and behavioral sciences into predictive intelligence and pandemic prevention. It will inform future research investments, institutional capacity-building, and other policy priorities aimed at keeping the US and the world safe from inevitable future pandemics.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.