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RAPID: Electricity Consumption as a Real Time Indicator of Economic Activity

RAPID：用电量作为经济活动的实时指标

基本信息

批准号：
2031184
负责人：
Steven Cicala
金额：
$ 19.93万
依托单位：
National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2020-09-01 至 2024-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2031184&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
RAPID Electricity Consumption Real Time

项目摘要

In order to understand the effects of COVID-19 on the US economy, we need measures of economic activity that can keep pace with the spread of the virus. This means measures that can be constructed not just for the nation as a whole, but for states and localities. It also means measures that can be constructed very quickly from available data sources; it takes months to finalize existing economic statistics. This award funds a project that seeks to meet this urgent need by using existing data streams that measure electricity consumption. The available data divide the US into 100 different geographic zones and are measured hourly. The PI will use statistical methods to determine how past economic crises have affected electricity consumption. The results will help them see when and how electricity generation is a useful economic indicator. If successful, the project will give policymakers and businesses better measures of how the economy is performing during fast-moving crises.The team will develop a real-time index of economic activity using weather-adjusted electricity consumption. Data will come from publicly available sources, including the individual Independent System Operators (ISOs) that conduct wholesale electricity markets, the Energy Information Administration (EAI), Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E). The data will be merged for weather state from the National Weather Service’s Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) to control for the effect of heating and cooling needs on electricity demand.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

为了了解COVID-19对美国经济的影响，我们需要能够跟上病毒传播速度的经济活动指标。这意味着不仅可以为整个国家，而且可以为各州和地方制定措施。这还意味着可以根据现有数据来源迅速构建衡量标准;现有的经济统计数据需要数月才能最终确定。该奖项资助了一个项目，该项目旨在通过使用现有的测量电力消耗的数据流来满足这一迫切需求。现有数据将美国划分为100个不同的地理区域，并按小时测量。PI将使用统计方法来确定过去的经济危机如何影响电力消费。研究结果将帮助他们了解发电何时以及如何成为一个有用的经济指标。如果成功，该项目将为政策制定者和企业提供更好的措施，以衡量经济在快速发展的危机中的表现。该团队将利用经天气调整的电力消耗，开发一个实时经济活动指数。数据将来自公开来源，包括开展批发电力市场的独立系统运营商（ISO）、能源信息管理局（EAI）、联邦能源监管委员会（FERC）和欧洲电力传输系统运营商网络（ENTSO-E）。这些数据将与美国国家气象局的自动地面观测系统（ASOS）的天气状态数据合并，以控制加热和冷却需求对电力需求的影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。