RAPID: Electricity Consumption as a Real Time Indicator of Economic Activity

为了了解新冠肺炎对美国经济的影响，我们需要能够跟上病毒传播步伐的经济活动指标。这意味着，不仅可以为整个国家，而且可以为各州和地方制定措施。它还意味着可以根据现有数据来源非常迅速地构建措施；需要几个月的时间才能最终确定现有的经济统计数据。该奖项资助了一个项目，该项目寻求通过使用现有的衡量电力消耗的数据流来满足这一迫切需求。现有的数据将美国划分为100个不同的地理区域，并按小时进行衡量。PI将使用统计方法来确定过去的经济危机如何影响电力消费。结果将帮助他们了解发电何时以及如何成为有用的经济指标。如果成功，该项目将为政策制定者和企业提供更好的衡量经济在快速变化的关键时期表现的指标。该团队将利用天气调整的电力消耗开发经济活动的实时指数。数据将来自公开来源，包括经营电力批发市场的独立系统运营商(ISO)、能源信息管理局(EAI)、联邦能源管理委员会(FERC)和欧洲输电系统运营商网络(ENTSO-E)。来自国家气象局自动地面观测系统(ASOS)的天气状态数据将被合并，以控制供暖和制冷需求对电力需求的影响。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

In order to understand the effects of COVID-19 on the US economy, we need measures of economic activity that can keep pace with the spread of the virus. This means measures that can be constructed not just for the nation as a whole, but for states and localities. It also means measures that can be constructed very quickly from available data sources; it takes months to finalize existing economic statistics. This award funds a project that seeks to meet this urgent need by using existing data streams that measure electricity consumption. The available data divide the US into 100 different geographic zones and are measured hourly. The PI will use statistical methods to determine how past economic crises have affected electricity consumption. The results will help them see when and how electricity generation is a useful economic indicator. If successful, the project will give policymakers and businesses better measures of how the economy is performing during fast-moving crises.The team will develop a real-time index of economic activity using weather-adjusted electricity consumption. Data will come from publicly available sources, including the individual Independent System Operators (ISOs) that conduct wholesale electricity markets, the Energy Information Administration (EAI), Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E). The data will be merged for weather state from the National Weather Service’s Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) to control for the effect of heating and cooling needs on electricity demand.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.