Collaborative Research: Stakeholder Interdependencies in Post-Disaster Relocation under High Uncertainty

灾难的后果往往导致个人家庭和企业需要搬迁到危险较小的地方，但在其他时候，这两者的大量迁移可能是必要的。在后一种情况下，决定是否移动需要各种社区利益相关者的互动，所有这些都经常在充满许多不确定性的背景下进行。然而，现有研究很少关注高不确定性下社区利益相关者如何做出搬迁决策，以及这些决策之间如何相互关联。了解这种相互依赖关系需要使用比以前的重新安置研究所采用的更全面的方法。这种办法必须承认利益攸关方作出搬迁决定的个人能力和影响这些能力的更广泛背景。本研究通过产生影响家庭和企业在高度不确定和紧急制度环境下的社区搬迁决策因素的科学知识，推进了美国国家科学基金会促进科学进步的使命。通过关注服务不足的社区，本研究还推进了NSF的使命，即促进这些社区的国家健康、繁荣和福利，这些社区经常处于快速和缓慢发生的灾难事件（如飓风、洪水、地震和海平面上升）的前线。本研究的具体目的是在高度不确定和紧急的制度环境中考察以下因素：(1)家庭和企业用于做出搬迁决策的资源；(2)家庭和企业搬迁决策之间的相互依赖关系；(3)家庭和企业搬迁决策对非营利组织或志愿者团体行为的依赖。这项为期三年的研究采用嵌入式、多案例研究和混合方法研究设计，研究对象是波多黎各两个农村、服务不足和风险社区（沿海Loíza和山区Comerío）及其在2017年飓风“厄玛”和“玛丽亚”后被指定搬迁的社区。这些社区不仅处于多重和同时发生、快速和缓慢发生的灾害事件的前线，而且还要应对高度的政治动荡以及不确定和不断变化的制度。该研究的年度数据收集方法包括：(i)对住户和企业进行随机抽样调查；（ii）多利益相关方关键线人访谈；（iii）与居民合作的PhotoVoice项目；（iv）与居民进行多方角色扮演游戏。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The aftermath of a disaster often results in the need for individual households and businesses to relocate to less hazardous locations but at other times movement can be necessary for larger numbers of both. In the latter case, deciding whether to move requires the interaction of a variety of community stakeholders, all to often in a context fraught with many uncertainties. Unfortunately, existing research has paid little attention to how community-level stakeholders make relocation decisions under high uncertainty and how these decisions may be interrelated. Understanding such interdependencies requires using a more holistic approach than those adopted in prior relocation studies. Such an approach must acknowledge both the individual capacity of stakeholders in making relocation decisions and the broader contexts which influence these capacities. This study advances the NSF’s mission to promote the progress of science by generating scientific knowledge of the factors that affect community relocation decisions of households and businesses in highly uncertain and emergent institutional environments. By focusing on underserved communities, this study also advances NSF’s mission to promote national health, prosperity, and welfare of these communities which are often at the frontline of fast and slow-onset disaster events such as, hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, and sea level rise. The study’s specific aims are to examine the following in highly uncertain and emergent institutional environments: (1) resources households and businesses use to make relocation decisions; (2) the inter-dependencies between household and business relocation decisions; and (3) the dependence of household and business relocation decisions upon the actions of nonprofits or volunteer groups. This three-year study uses an embedded, multi-case study and mixed-method research design in two rural, under-served and at-risk communities in Puerto Rico (coastal Loíza and mountainous Comerío) and their neighborhoods designated for relocation after Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. These communities are not only at the frontline of multiple and concurrent, fast and slow-onset disaster events but also are dealing with high levels of political unrest and uncertain and constantly changing institutions. The study’s annual data collection methods include: (i) random sample surveys of households and businesses; (ii) multi-stakeholder key informant interviews; (iii) PhotoVoice project with residents; and (iv) multi-stakeholder Role Playing Games with residents.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.