Collaborative Research: Climate Impacts on the Urban Built Environment

该项目旨在填补人们对如何解释和解决与气候变化有关的建筑性能压力的理解空白。该项目将提供有关气候变化对城市建筑环境的影响将如何影响区域能源供应的见解，以及需要何种类型的设计和运营策略来适应或减轻这些影响。其目的是为制定新建筑设计标准提供指导，并促进在现有建筑存量中制定改进的适应和缓解战略，同时考虑到生命周期对环境的影响。该项目将创建一个分析框架，用于预测不同气候情景下不同能源类型和相关温室气体排放的城市建筑能耗。该框架将包括对建筑能源使用影响最大的参数的变化和不确定性所导致的建筑性能脆弱性，以及生命周期环境影响。该项目的方法是开发气候变化驱动的建筑能耗概率框架，并在未来情景下使用生命周期评估模型。该项目的具体目标是：(i)预测可能的适应和缓解因素的影响以及未来的生命周期影响；（ii）在关键气候风险和脆弱性的概率框架内量化不确定性，并将其离散为总不确定性；（三）建立城市规模的能源和生命周期评估框架，以确定以温室气体排放为重点的未来环境影响。为了实现这些目标，该项目将开发一个概率模型，说明建筑物将如何受到未来气候的影响，包括气候模型和建筑性能的不确定性。项目计划包括开发能源采购方案，以估计与建筑物能源消耗相关的未来环境影响。将研究14种不同的适应和缓解战略，以审查其在气候变化中的有效性。该模型将以费城为例进行开发、测试和校准，并与费城可持续发展办公室（OOS）合作，以帮助他们为其绿色工程运动（该市的综合可持续发展计划）设定适当且可实现的目标。该项目旨在帮助OOS为气候准备型建筑制定路线图，以提高整体效率并降低其建筑库存的维护成本。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project is targeted to fill a gap in the understanding of how to interpret and address climate change-related stresses on building performance. The project will provide insights about how climate change-related impacts on the urban built environment will influence regional energy supply, and what types of design and operation strategies are needed to adapt to or mitigate these impacts. The intention is to provide guidance for the development of standards addressing new building design, and also to facilitate development of improved adaptation and mitigation strategies in the existing building stock, while taking life cycle environmental impacts into account.The project will create an analytical framework for predicting urban building energy consumption considering different energy source types and associated greenhouse gas emissions under different climate scenarios. The framework will include building performance vulnerabilities resulting from variations and uncertainties in parameters that have the most impact on building energy use, and by extension, life cycle environmental impacts. The approach for the project is the development of a climate change-driven probabilistic framework for building energy consumption with a lifecycle assessment model under future scenarios. The specific objectives of the project are to: (i) predict the impact of possible adaptation and mitigation factors as well as future lifecycle impacts; (ii) quantify the uncertainties within a probabilistic framework of key climate risks and vulnerabilities and discretize them to the total uncertainty; and (iii) develop an urban scale energy and life cycle assessment framework to determine future environmental impacts with a focus on greenhouse gas emissions. In order to achieve these objectives, the project will develop a probabilistic model of how buildings will be affected by future climate, including uncertainties from both climate models and building performance. The project plan includes developing energy sourcing scenarios to estimate the future environmental impacts associated with the buildings’ energy consumption. Fourteen different adaptation and mitigation strategies will be studied to examine their effectiveness as the climate changes. The model will be developed, tested, and calibrated using the City of Philadelphia as a case study, working with the City of Philadelphia’s Office of Sustainability (OOS) in order to help them set appropriate and achievable targets for their Greenworks Campaign, the City’s comprehensive sustainability plan. The project is intended to help OOS create a roadmap for climate-prepared buildings, to improve overall efficiency and reduce maintenance costs for its building stock.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.