The Oceanic Fingerprint of the Forced Response to Anthropogenic Aerosols

对人为气溶胶强制反应的海洋指纹

• 批准号: 2048336
• 负责人: Susan Wijffels
• 金额: $ 88.57万
• 依托单位: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-03-01 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2048336&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Oceanic; Fingerprint; Forced; Response; Anthropogenic

Human emissions to the atmosphere impact our climate in two ways: changing how efficiently our planet cools via radiation back to space through increasing greenhouse gases; and changing how much sunlight reaches Earth’s surface via the impacts of aerosols on atmospheric brightness and cloudiness. More is understood about the warming effect of greenhouse gases, which act globally, than the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols, which act more regionally (close to emission sites in the northern hemisphere). Quantifying how much these two opposing climate drivers are responsible for past change is also challenging, as our climate system also has natural chaotic fluctuations. The ocean is a major player in controlling the rate and form of change in Earth’s climate. This project will exploit the unprecedented global ocean observations from the Argo array and a large set of climate model runs (which capture a lot of Earth’s climate chaos) to try to tease apart the fingerprint of aerosols versus greenhouse gases on our recent past climate. Some of the questions the team will address are: Has the aerosol effect been over or underestimated in the past? How has the ocean been impacted? Ultimately the team aims to help improve climate projections and thus support better mitigation and adaptation actions by the community. The project will also support and help train a postdoctoral scientist.Anthropogenic aerosols, along with greenhouse gases (GHG), have caused substantial climate change over the past several decades, with the former much less understood and quantified. While most previous studies have focused on surface or atmospheric responses, the investigators will investigate how the ocean water masses and circulation evolve due to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in contrast to the background of internal variability and GHG-forced changes during the historical period and in future projections. To isolate externally forced signal from internal climate variability, they will exploit new large ensemble simulations using a single general circulation model with common external forcing but different initial conditions. They will focus on comparing the externally forced component and internal variability, evaluation of the performance of various spatiotemporal analysis methods in separating those signals and the robustness of their estimation. The team hopes to develop fingerprints of the ocean interior response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing found in the model runs, and then examine how likely it is to detect these fingerprints in the observations, unforced control runs, runs with other anthropogenic forcing, and runs with natural external forcing. They will attempt to identify and remove the internal variability from the observations to test whether the detectability of the fingerprint of the forced signal can be improved.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

人类向大气排放的气体以两种方式影响我们的气候：通过增加温室气体，改变地球通过辐射回太空的冷却效率；并通过气溶胶对大气亮度和云量的影响来改变到达地球表面的阳光量。人们对温室气体变暖效应的了解更多，因为温室气体在全球范围内发挥作用，而人为气溶胶的降温效应则更具有区域性（靠近北半球的排放点）。量化这两个相反的气候驱动因素对过去的变化有多大影响也具有挑战性，因为我们的气候系统也存在自然的混乱波动。海洋是控制地球气候变化速度和形式的主要参与者。该项目将利用 Argo 阵列前所未有的全球海洋观测和大量气候模型运行（捕获大量地球气候混乱）来尝试梳理气溶胶与温室气体对我们最近的气候的影响。该团队将解决的一些问题是：过去气溶胶效应是否被过度估计或低估？ 海洋受到了怎样的影响？该团队的最终目标是帮助改善气候预测，从而支持社区更好的缓解和适应行动。该项目还将支持和帮助培训一名博士后科学家。在过去的几十年里，人为气溶胶与温室气体 (GHG) 一起导致了巨大的气候变化，而前者的理解和量化要少得多。虽然之前的大多数研究都集中在地表或大气响应上，但研究人员将研究海洋水团和环流如何因人为气溶胶强迫而演变，与历史时期和未来预测的内部变率和温室气体强制变化的背景形成鲜明对比。为了将外部强迫信号与内部气候变化分开，他们将利用具有共同外部强迫但不同初始条件的单一大气环流模型来开发新的大型集合模拟。 他们将重点比较外部强制分量和内部变异性，评估各种时空分析方法在分离这些信号方面的性能及其估计的稳健性。该团队希望开发海洋内部对模型运行中发现的人为气溶胶强迫的响应指纹，然后检查在观测、非受迫控制运行、其他人为强迫运行和自然外部强迫运行中检测到这些指纹的可能性有多大。他们将尝试识别并消除观测中的内部变异性，以测试是否可以提高强制信号指纹的可检测性。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优点和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Two Distinct Modes of Climate Responses to the Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing Changes

气候对人为气溶胶强迫变化响应的两种不同模式

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0656.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Shi, Jia-Rui;Kwon, Young-Oh;Wijffels, Susan E.
• 通讯作者: Wijffels, Susan E.

Increasing Inhomogeneity of the Global Oceans

• DOI: 10.1029/2021gl097598
• 发表时间: 2022-06
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Q. Ren;Young‐Oh Kwon;Jiayan Yang;R. Huang;Yuanlong Li;Fan Wang

Interhemispheric Contrasts of Ocean Heat Content Change Reveals Distinct Fingerprints of Anthropogenic Climate Forcings

• DOI: 10.1029/2023gl102741
• 发表时间: 2023-08
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Jia‐Rui Shi;S. Wijffels;Young‐Oh Kwon;S. Xie

Subsurface Ocean Temperature Responses to the Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing in the North Pacific

北太平洋次表层海洋温度对人为气溶胶强迫的响应

• DOI: 10.1029/2022gl101035
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Shi, Jia‐Rui;Kwon, Young‐Oh;Wijffels, Susan E.
• 通讯作者: Wijffels, Susan E.