The Crop-Climate Feedback Cycle and its Implications for Global Food Production

作物生长常常为作物生产创造更有利的条件，这被称为作物-气候反馈循环。研究表明，在世界上一些最多产的农业地区，作物生长可能会使当地气候降温，减少对作物有害的高温的影响，从而提高作物产量。本项目的地理分析显示了作物-气候反馈的强度和空间变异性，以及驱动它的物理机制。通过更好地了解作物如何与当地气候相互作用，该项目为预测可能影响未来农业潜力的环境变化以及调整策略以限制作物产量损失提供了信息。该项目的研究结果将通过媒体渠道和演讲向公众公布，并将引起各农业利益攸关方和粮食安全分析人员的兴趣。该项目整合了空间分析、气候科学和作物产量统计模型，以评估作物生长对当地气候的影响程度，以及这种影响如何反过来影响作物生产。本研究以四个问题为指导：(1)驱动作物-气候反馈的物理机制是什么？(2)在不同的地理空间、不同的经济发展水平和不同的自然灾害易损性模式中，反馈的强度和重要性如何变化？(3)作物-气候反馈如何影响未来几十年的作物产量趋势？(4)在气候变暖的情况下，作物-气候反馈是否能够使农业整合的适应性策略减少作物产量损失？该项目的研究结果使研究人员了解了作物与气候之间的相互作用，这对于评估气候驱动的粮食不安全的未来风险、农业地区潜在的经济损失以及制定适应战略以提高粮食生产的气候适应能力至关重要。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Crop growth often creates conditions more favorable for crop production, this is known as the crop-climate feedback cycle. Research has demonstrated that in some of the world's most productive agricultural regions, crop growth may cool the local climate, reducing the impact of crop-damaging hot temperatures, thereby boosting crop yields. This project's geographical analysis demonstrates the strength and spatial variability of the crop-climate feedback, as well as the physical mechanisms driving it. By better understanding how crops interact with local climate, this project informs efforts to anticipate environmental changes that could impact future agricultural potential as well as adapting strategies to limit crop yield losses. The project's findings will be made available to the public via media outlets and presentations and will be of interest to various agricultural stakeholders and those who analyze food security. This project integrates spatial analysis, climate science, and statistical crop yield modeling to assess the extent to which crop growth affects local climate, and how this, in turn, impacts crop production. This research is guided by four questions: (1) what are the physical mechanisms driving the crop-climate feedback? (2) how does the strength and importance of the feedback vary across geographic space and across differing levels of economic development and patterns of vulnerability to natural disasters? (3) how might the crop-climate feedback affect crop yield trends in the coming decades? and (4) could the crop-climate feedback enable an adaptive strategy of agricultural consolidation to reduce crop yield losses in a warming climate? The project's findings inform researchers about the interaction between crops and the climate, which is critical for assessing the future risk of climate-driven food insecurity, the potential for economic losses in agricultural regions, and for developing adaptation strategies to increase the climate resilience of food production.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.