Collaborative Research: Optimal Parental Leave Policies in the Presence of Statistical Discrimination and Child Development

这项研究项目将使用大数据集和现代经济理论和测量方法来调查美国最好的育儿假政策。它开发和测试了一种复杂的育儿假政策理论，考虑到政府的育儿假政策，该理论解释了家庭和企业如何就劳动力供求以及是否生育和生育多少孩子做出决定。这个模型提供了一个正式的经济框架，用于分析辩论的几个方面的论点。过去几十年来，高收入国家劳动力市场的一些最重要变化是，女性劳动力参与率上升以及教育和收入方面的性别差距缩小。虽然美国已经提出了几项相互竞争的育儿假政策，但没有太多研究来指导哪一项相互竞争的建议对美国最有利。除了研究最适合美国的父母政策外，该项目还将培训研究生和本科生进行尖端经济研究。这一研究项目的结果将为如何最好地为美国建立有效的育儿假政策提供指导，从而改善劳动力市场的运行。这也将有助于将美国确立为育儿假政策的全球领导者。有大量关于育儿假政策的实证文献；然而，这些证据并没有为这些政策的有效性提供独特的结论。一方面，这些政策可以通过使职业母亲能够将事业和母亲身份结合起来来促进性别平等和儿童发展。另一方面，这些政策可能会对妇女产生长期的负面影响，因为它们可能会因为失去工作经验而阻碍妇女建立自己的职业生涯。本项目探讨育儿假政策的最佳设计和各种筹资方式，提出一种理论，说明家庭如何就生育率、劳动参与率和资源分配作出决定，休假政策如何影响这些决定，以及利润最大化的公司如何对这些政策做出反应。该项目为评估带薪家事假政策的最佳性提供了一个框架，将准试验性政策变化与女性雇员及其雇主可对这些干预措施作出反应的机制进行明确的结构性建模相结合。与以前的研究不同，这项研究将统计歧视、家庭讨价还价和儿童发展放在一个劳动力市场的一般均衡模型中考虑。该项目的半参数、结构差异方法有助于对市场双方作出反应的各种机制进行严格测试。该研究项目的结果将为如何最好地制定育儿假政策，从而改善劳动力市场的运作提供指导。这也将有助于将美国确立为育儿假政策的全球领导者。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This research project will use large data sets and modern economic theory and measurement methods to investigate the best parental leave policies for the US. It develops and tests a sophisticated theory of parental leave policy that accounts for how households and businesses make decisions about labor supply and demand as well as whether and how many children to have, taking into consideration government parental leave policies. This model provides a formal economic framework for analyzing arguments on several sides of the debate. Rising female workforce participation and reduction in gender gaps in schooling and earnings are some of the most important changes in labor markets over the past few decades in high income countries. While several competing parental leave policies have been proposed for the United States, there is not much research to guide which of the competing proposals will be best for the United States. In addition to studying the best parental policy for the US, the project will also train graduate and undergraduate students in cutting-edge economic research. The results of this research project will provide guidance on how best to establish efficient parental leave policies for the US, thus improving the operations of the labor market. It will also help to establish the US as a global leader in parental leave policies.There is a large empirical literature on parental leave policies; however the evidence does not provide a unique verdict on the efficacy of these policies. On the one hand, these policies may foster gender equity and child development by enabling working mothers to combine careers and motherhood. On the other hand, these policies may have long-term negative consequences for women as they may inhibit women from building up their careers due to losses in work experience. This project addresses the optimal design of parental leave policies and various ways of funding them by presenting a theory of how households make decisions regarding fertility, labor participation and the allocation of resources, how leave policies affect these decisions, and how profit-maximizing firms respond to these policies. The project provides a framework for the assessment of the optimality of paid family leave policies combining quasi-experimental policy variation with an explicit, structural modeling of the mechanisms through which female employees and their employers may respond to these interventions. Unlike earlier research, this research considers statistical discrimination, household bargaining, and child development together in a general equilibrium model of the labor market. The semi-parametric, structural difference-in-difference approach of the project facilitates rigorous testing of the various mechanisms through which both sides of the market respond. The results of this research project will provide guidance on how best to establish parental leave policies, thus improving the operations of the labor market. It will also help to establish the US as a global leader in parental leave policies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.