Collaborative Research: P2C2--Variability, Impacts and Extremes of the ENSO-Asian Monsoon Relationship over the Common Era

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The research team aims to investigate the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relationship over the last 2,000 years, diagnose how various external forcings (e.g., solar irradiance and greenhouse gases) and internal climate feedbacks from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulate the ENSO-monsoon relationship, examine whether the recent literature documenting ENSO-monsoon relationship changes over the instrumental period hold in the past, and generate a statistical forecast model of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). Both the ASM and ENSO are fundamental components of the climate system. Investigating the variation of their relationship will deepen our understanding of teleconnections, air-sea interactions, and climate feedbacks. The paleoclimate data will serve as a testbed for the verification of current theories of the ASM thereby refining dynamical understanding.The ASM supplies freshwater resources for nearly four billion people annually. Extreme events associated with the ASM cause and/or exacerbate floods and droughts, which have far-reaching social and economic impacts in developing countries. Large model uncertainties, however, still exist in the model projections of the ASM. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important predictor of the ASM, yet the ENSO-monsoon relationship is not stable and exhibits substantial decadal variability. The variation of the ENSO-monsoon relationship is likely modulated by external forcing such as greenhouse gases (GHGs) and solar irradiance but also heavily modulated by internal modes of climate variability such as the PDO and the AMO. Paleoclimate records can extend the temporal coverage afforded by the instrumental era and help address such uncertainty.The potential Broader Impacts (B.I.) include integrating climate dynamics and modeling to refine projections of the ASM and its hydroclimate extremes, which impact the economic prosperity of nearly 4 billion people in Asian developing countries. The project will broaden diverse participation in climate modeling and climate risk research by supporting research opportunities for two assistant professors, a postdoctoral researcher, two doctoral graduate students, several undergraduate students including those from historically underrepresented groups, and outreach with K-12 students and the Girl Scouts of America. Results from this project will be disseminated to relevant management agency stakeholders at the local, state, and federal levels.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.