Collaborative Research: P2C2--Evaluating the Origins of Multidecadal Variability in Late Holocene Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in Nepal

合作研究：P2C2——评估尼泊尔全新世晚期印度夏季季风降雨的多年代际变化的起源

• 批准号: 2102893
• 负责人: Diana Thatcher
• 金额: $ 8.57万
• 依托单位: Iowa State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-06-01 至 2024-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2102893&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Evaluating; Origins

The research team aims to develop a replicated, 4000-year-long, precisely dated, sub-decadally resolved, multi-proxy stalagmite reconstruction of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in Nepal and to couple this record with climate model simulations to examine the nature and origins of multidecadal monsoon variability during different climate states of the late Holocene. The ISM supplies nearly seventy percent of South Asia’s annual precipitation, serving as the primary water resource for agriculture and the myriad of natural environments, including glaciers, across the region. Over the last century and a half, ISM rainfall has been positively correlated at multidecadal time scales with sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, in the last twenty years, this link appears to have been broken, with monsoon rainfall over India failing to increase despite a much warmer North Atlantic. This shift has profound consequences for regional ecosystems and the approximately two billion people living in South Asia. The potential Broader Impacts include a deeper understanding of a climatological system which impacts large human population centers, capacity building and expertise exchange with international colleagues, support of students involved with the research, and public outreach.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该研究小组的目标是开发一个复制的，长达4000年的，精确的日期，分十年解决，多代理石笋重建印度夏季季风（ISM）在尼泊尔的降雨，并将这一记录与气候模型模拟相结合，以研究全新世晚期不同气候状态下数十年季风变化的性质和起源。 ISM提供了南亚年降水量的近70%，是该地区农业和包括冰川在内的无数自然环境的主要水资源。在过去的世纪和半，ISM降雨量已呈正相关，在几十年的时间尺度与北大西洋的海面温度。然而，在过去的二十年里，这种联系似乎已经被打破，尽管北大西洋变暖得多，但印度的季风降雨量却未能增加。这一转变对区域生态系统和生活在南亚的约20亿人口产生了深远的影响。潜在的更广泛影响包括对影响大型人口中心的气候系统的更深入了解，与国际同事的能力建设和专业知识交流，对参与研究的学生的支持，以及公众宣传。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Late Holocene Shifts in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall from Central Nepal Stalagmites and Coupled Climate Model Simulations

尼泊尔中部石笋的印度夏季季风降雨的全新世晚期变化及耦合气候模型模拟

• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: American Geophysical Union Ocean Sciences Meeting
• 作者: Wiggins, C.C.;Ummenhofer, C.C.;Denniston, R.F.;Wanamaker, A.D.;Asmerom, Y.;Polyak, V.J.;Whitney, N.M.;Basnet, K.;Poudel, K.;Baral, S.
• 通讯作者: Baral, S.