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Collaborative Research: An integrated model-proxy approach to understanding Western US hydroclimate change since the last glacial period

合作研究：了解自末次冰期以来美国西部水文气候变化的综合模型代理方法

基本信息

批准号：
2102984
负责人：
Kristopher Karnauskas
金额：
$ 17.24万
依托单位：
University of Colorado at Boulder
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-07-01 至 2024-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2102984&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research integrated model proxy

项目摘要

Understanding what processes drive changes in rainfall along the U.S. West Coast is essential for predicting future water availability in this densely populated and agriculturally productive part of the country. However, given the short duration of direct meteorological observations (~100 years), it is beneficial to reconstruct past changes in rainfall over longer time periods (i.e., thousands of years) in order to uncover the potential sensitivity of water resources in the Western U.S to future climate change. This research project combines measurements of ancient groundwater and state-of-the-art climate model experiments to both quantify and understand the dynamical drivers of hydrological change along the American West Coast during the last ice age (i.e., the Last Glacial Maximum or LGM, ~25,000 years ago). This project also includes a comprehensive public outreach component, involving the creation of a museum exhibit for display at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). In collaboration with the University of Colorado Boulder, the researchers will lead an interdisciplinary course for students to design and prototype a museum exhibit that brings to life the radically different atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns present during the LGM.The first research component of this project involves a field campaign to collect groundwater samples from a network of wells within the Columbia Plateau Aquifer system in northeastern Oregon and southeastern Washington, which will provide a much-needed quantitative constraint on LGM hydroclimate in the data-poor Pacific Northwest. A new analytical technique for high-precision measurements of dissolved noble gas concentrations and Krypton and Xenon isotope ratios within the groundwater will be employed to reconstruct past temperature and regional water table depth. The second research component of the project involves climate model experiments using NCAR’s Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1) to build upon existing fully equilibrated climate simulations to study the influence of different LGM boundary conditions (ice sheet albedo/topography, greenhouse gases, orbital forcing, etc) on North Pacific atmospheric circulation and the intensity, variability, and landfalling orientation of moisture-rich storms known as Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The project also includes a series of time-slice experiments, simulating both deglacial and glacial conditions, to examine the transient response of ARs and western North American hydroclimate to shrinking and growing continental ice sheets. Finally, detailed comparisons will be made between these model simulations and the proxy reconstructions of Pacific Northwest water table depths.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

了解什么过程驱动降雨量的变化沿着美国西海岸是至关重要的预测未来的水供应在这个人口稠密和农业生产的国家的一部分。然而，由于直接气象观测的持续时间很短（约100年），重建过去较长时间内降雨量的变化是有益的（即，数千年），以揭示美国西部水资源对未来气候变化的潜在敏感性。该研究项目结合了对古代地下水的测量和最先进的气候模型实验，以量化和了解最后一个冰河时期美国西海岸水文变化的动力驱动因素（即，最后一次冰期（LGM），大约25,000年前。该项目还包括一个全面的公众宣传部分，包括在国家大气研究中心（NCAR）创建一个博物馆展览。与科罗拉多博尔德大学合作，研究人员将带领学生设计一个跨学科的课程，并制作一个博物馆展览的原型，该展览将使LGM期间存在的完全不同的大气环流和降雨模式栩栩如生。该项目的第一个研究部分包括一个实地活动，从俄勒冈州东北部哥伦比亚高原含水层系统内的威尔斯网络中收集地下水样本和东南部华盛顿，这将提供一个急需的定量约束末次盛冰期水文气候在数据贫乏的太平洋西北部。将采用一种新的分析技术，对地下水中溶解的惰性气体浓度以及氪和氙同位素比率进行高精度测量，以重建过去的温度和区域地下水位深度。该项目的第二个研究部分涉及气候模型实验，使用NCAR的社区地球系统模型版本1.2（CESM 1）建立在现有的完全平衡的气候模拟基础上，研究不同LGM边界条件的影响（冰盖环流/地形，温室气体，轨道强迫等）对北太平洋大气环流和强度，变率，以及被称为大气河流（AR）的富含水分的风暴的登陆方向。该项目还包括一系列时间片实验，模拟冰消和冰川条件，以研究AR和北美西部水文气候对大陆冰盖收缩和增长的瞬态响应。最后，这些模型模拟和太平洋西北部地下水位深度的代理重建之间的详细比较。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估的支持。