Large-Scale CoPe: The Cascadia Coastlines and People Hazards Research Hub

大规模 CoPe：卡斯卡迪亚海岸线和人类危害研究中心

• 批准号: 2103713
• 负责人: Peter Ruggiero
• 金额: $ 1889.61万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Cooperative Agreement
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-08-01 至 2026-07-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2103713&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Large; Scale; CoPe; Cascadia; Coastlines

In response to the direct call by Pacific Northwest coastal communities for “a coordinated research agenda among universities, governmental agencies, NGOs, and others” to help them achieve resilience, the Cascadia Coastlines and Peoples Hazards Research Hub (Cascadia CoPes hub) will inform and enable integrated hazard assessment, mitigation, and adaptation—including comprehensive planning, policy making, and engineering—through targeted scientific advances in collaboration with communities. Pacific Northwest coastlines are at risk of great subduction earthquakes from the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), which extends more than 1000 km from Cape Mendocino in California through Oregon and Washington to Vancouver Island, Canada. Cascadia coastlines and peoples face acute shaking, subsidence, and tsunami inundation from a CSZ event, landslide and erosion risks aggravated by climate-driven intensifying atmospheric rivers, changing storminess patterns and sea level rise, as well as crustal faulting in the Salish Sea. Cascadia coastal communities also have rich and diverse cultural, social and governance histories, traditional and local ecological knowledge (TEK/LEK), and identities, values, and economies tied to their coastal locations and ecosystems. These distinguishing features position the Cascadia CoPes hub to transform understanding of the temporal pacing and interactions of acute and chronic coastal changes. The Cascadia CoPes hub will increase coastal community adaptive capacity, through community engagement and co-production, and by training a new generation of coastal hazards scientists and leaders from currently underrepresented communities in the region.With inextricably linked tectonic and climate-driven coastal hazards, Cascadia provides a natural laboratory for the study of local coastal changes spanning time scales from minutes to millennia, reflecting complex and locally-specific layering of impacts from chronic and acute hazards. For example, long-term relative sea level rise (RSLR) is governed here by tectonic motion, with the highest west coast rates of RSLR found at the southern end of Cascadia, while RSLR is muted along some stretches of the Olympic Peninsula in the north by uplift. The Cascadia CoPes hub is designed to test two overarching hypotheses: (1) fundamental advances in convergent coastal hazard sciences will transform understanding of the risks coastal communities face and (2) an inclusive, co-produced approach to advancing hazard assessment and mitigation will increase coastal communities’ adaptive capacity and broaden participation in achieving equitable and just disaster risk reduction. With collaboratories representing the diversity of Cascadia coastlines and peoples, the project will: (a) identify likely sources of earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and land-level change, integrate new observations and develop coupled event simulations based on novel probabilistic tectonic multi-hazard risk models; (b) assess climate-driven compound fluvial-coastal flooding and how these drive coastal morphology changes and ecosystems, to quantify probabilistic exposure to coastal hazards under present and future conditions; (c) assess risk mitigation and dynamic adaptation strategies, including use of natural and nature-based features, (d) identify and test multi-use and asset-focused adaptation strategies for disaster risk reduction in processes that incorporate TEK/LEK, (e) study the inclusiveness of coastal governance structures for hazards resilience and science-informed hazards response, and (f) explore the conceptual linkages and communications challenges across (a-e).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

In response to the direct call by Pacific Northwest coastal communities for “a coordinated research agenda among universities, governmental agencies, NGOs, and others” to help them achieve resilience, the Cascadia Coastlines and Peoples Hazards Research Hub (Cascadia CoPes hub) will inform and enable integrated hazard assessment, mitigation, and adaptation—including comprehensive planning, policy making, and engineering—through targeted科学进步与社区合作。西北海岸线有卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带（CSZ）发生俯冲地震的风险，该地震从加利福尼亚州的Mendocino延伸到俄勒冈州和华盛顿到加拿大温哥华岛，延伸了1000多公里。 Cascadia海岸线和人们面临CSZ事件，滑坡和侵蚀的急性颤抖，沉降和海啸基础设施，这些风险因气候驱动的增强大气河流，变化的风暴模式和海平面上升，以及萨利什海的地壳断层。卡斯卡迪亚沿海社区还拥有丰富而多样的文化，社会和治理历史，传统和地方生态知识（TEK/LEK），以及与沿海地区和生态系统相关的身份，价值观和经济学。这些独特的特征位于Cascadia Copers Hub，以改变人们对急性和慢性沿海变化的暂时起搏和相互作用的理解。 The Cascadia CoPes hub will increase coastal community adaptive capacity, through community engagement and co-production, and by training a new generation of coastal hazards scientists and leaders from currently underrepresented communities in the region.With inextricably linked tectonic and climate-driven coastal hazards, Cascadia provides a natural laboratory for the study of local coastal changes spanning time scales from minutes to millennia, reflecting complex and慢性和急性危害的局部特异性分层。例如，在这里，长期的相对海平面上升（RSLR）由构造运动控制，而西海岸的西海岸速率最高，在卡斯卡迪亚的南端发现，而RSLR沿着北部奥运会半岛的一些延伸而被Uplift静音。 Cascadia Copes Hub旨在测试两个总体假设：（1）融合沿海危险科学的基本进展将改变人们对沿海社区面临的风险的理解，以及（2）一种包容性的，共同制作的方法来提高危险评估和缓解措施将增加沿海社区的适应能力，并增加灾难性的现成的灾难，并使其成为灾难性的现成型号，并使其成为灾难性的造成巨大的参与。通过代表卡斯卡迪亚海岸线和人民多样性的合作者，该项目将：（a）确定可能的地震，海啸，滑坡和陆地变化的可能来源，集成了新的观察结果，并基于新颖的概率构造构造构造构造构造多人多危险风险模型来开发耦合的事件模拟； （b）评估气候驱动的化合物河流泛洪以及这些如何驱动沿海形态的变化和生态系统，以量化概率暴露于当前和未来条件下沿海危害； (c) assessment risk mitigation and dynamic adaptation strategies, including use of natural and nature-based features, (d) identify and test multi-use and asset-focused adaptation strategies for disaster risk reduction in processes that incorporate TEK/LEK, (e) study the inclusiveness of coastal governance structures for hazards resilience and science-informed hazards response, and (f) explore the conceptual linkages and communications challenges across （a-e）。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响审查标准来评估，被认为是珍贵的支持。

项目成果

Evacuation behaviors in tsunami drills

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05208-y
• 发表时间: 2022-02-02
• 期刊: NATURAL HAZARDS
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Chen, Chen;Mostafizi, Alireza;Cramer, Lori
• 通讯作者: Cramer, Lori

Intersectionality as a Forward-Thinking Approach in Disaster Research

交叉性作为灾害研究的前瞻性方法

• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Oxford Research Forum journal
• 作者: Vickery, J.;Jean, C.;Hall, C.
• 通讯作者: Hall, C.

ShakeAlert Baseline Survey: Earthquake and earthquake early warning perceptions and preparedness on the U.S. West Coast

ShakeAlert 基线调查：美国西海岸的地震和地震早期预警认知和准备情况

• DOI: 10.17603/ds2-3th7-d512
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Designsafe-CI
• 作者: Bostrom, Ann;Becker, Julia
• 通讯作者: Becker, Julia

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Morphodynamics and Riverine Flooding in an Idealized Estuary

• DOI: 10.1029/2022wr032544
• 发表时间: 2022-12
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Wuming Ni;J. Morgan;A. Horner‐Devine;Nirnimesh Kumar;S. Ahrendt

An integrative agent‐based vertical evacuation risk assessment model for near‐field tsunami hazards

基于综合代理的近场海啸灾害垂直疏散风险评估模型

• DOI: 10.1111/risa.13881
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Risk Analysis
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Chen, Chen;Mostafizi, Alireza;Wang, Haizhong;Cox, Dan;Chand, Cadell
• 通讯作者: Chand, Cadell