Large-Scale CoPe: The Cascadia Coastlines and People Hazards Research Hub

为了响应太平洋西北海岸社区“在大学、政府机构、非政府组织和其他机构之间协调研究议程”的直接呼吁，以帮助他们实现恢复力，卡斯卡迪亚海岸线和人民灾害研究中心（卡斯卡迪亚CoPes中心）将通过与社区合作的有针对性的科学进步，为综合灾害评估、缓解和适应提供信息并使其成为可能，包括全面的规划、政策制定和工程。从卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带（Cascadia subducation zone， CSZ）延伸1000多公里，从加利福尼亚州的门多西诺角（Cape Mendocino）穿过俄勒冈州和华盛顿州，一直延伸到加拿大的温哥华岛，太平洋西北海岸线面临着发生大俯冲地震的危险。卡斯卡迪亚的海岸线和人民面临着CSZ事件带来的剧烈震动、下沉和海啸淹没，气候驱动的大气河流加剧、风暴模式变化和海平面上升以及萨利希海的地壳断裂加剧了山体滑坡和侵蚀风险。卡斯卡迪亚沿海社区还拥有丰富多样的文化、社会和治理历史、传统和当地生态知识（TEK/LEK），以及与其沿海位置和生态系统相关的身份、价值观和经济。这些显著的特征使Cascadia CoPes中心转变了对急性和慢性海岸变化的时间节奏和相互作用的理解。Cascadia CoPes中心将通过社区参与和合作生产，以及从该地区目前代表性不足的社区培训新一代沿海灾害科学家和领导人，提高沿海社区的适应能力。由于构造和气候驱动的海岸灾害密不可分，卡斯卡迪亚为研究当地沿海变化提供了一个天然实验室，时间跨度从几分钟到几千年，反映了慢性和急性灾害对当地的复杂影响。例如，长期相对海平面上升（RSLR）在这里是由构造运动控制的，在卡斯卡迪亚的南端发现了最高的西海岸RSLR率，而在北部的奥林匹克半岛的一些延伸处，RSLR因隆起而减弱。Cascadia CoPes中心旨在测试两个总体假设：(1)沿海灾害科学趋同的基本进步将改变对沿海社区面临的风险的理解；(2)推进灾害评估和减灾的包容性、共同产生的方法将提高沿海社区的适应能力，并扩大参与，以实现公平和公正的灾害风险减少。与代表卡斯卡迪亚海岸线和人民多样性的实验室合作，该项目将：(a)确定地震、海啸、山体滑坡和陆地水平变化的可能来源，整合新的观测结果，并基于新的概率构造多灾害风险模型开发耦合事件模拟；(b)评估气候驱动的河流-海岸复合洪水以及这些洪水如何驱动海岸形态变化和生态系统，以量化在当前和未来条件下遭受海岸灾害的概率；(c)评估风险缓解和动态适应战略，包括利用自然和基于自然的特征；(d)在纳入TEK/LEK的进程中确定和测试以多用途和资产为重点的减少灾害风险适应战略；(e)研究沿海治理结构在抗灾能力和科学知情的灾害应对方面的包容性；(f)探索整个（a-e）的概念联系和沟通挑战。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

In response to the direct call by Pacific Northwest coastal communities for “a coordinated research agenda among universities, governmental agencies, NGOs, and others” to help them achieve resilience, the Cascadia Coastlines and Peoples Hazards Research Hub (Cascadia CoPes hub) will inform and enable integrated hazard assessment, mitigation, and adaptation—including comprehensive planning, policy making, and engineering—through targeted scientific advances in collaboration with communities. Pacific Northwest coastlines are at risk of great subduction earthquakes from the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), which extends more than 1000 km from Cape Mendocino in California through Oregon and Washington to Vancouver Island, Canada. Cascadia coastlines and peoples face acute shaking, subsidence, and tsunami inundation from a CSZ event, landslide and erosion risks aggravated by climate-driven intensifying atmospheric rivers, changing storminess patterns and sea level rise, as well as crustal faulting in the Salish Sea. Cascadia coastal communities also have rich and diverse cultural, social and governance histories, traditional and local ecological knowledge (TEK/LEK), and identities, values, and economies tied to their coastal locations and ecosystems. These distinguishing features position the Cascadia CoPes hub to transform understanding of the temporal pacing and interactions of acute and chronic coastal changes. The Cascadia CoPes hub will increase coastal community adaptive capacity, through community engagement and co-production, and by training a new generation of coastal hazards scientists and leaders from currently underrepresented communities in the region.With inextricably linked tectonic and climate-driven coastal hazards, Cascadia provides a natural laboratory for the study of local coastal changes spanning time scales from minutes to millennia, reflecting complex and locally-specific layering of impacts from chronic and acute hazards. For example, long-term relative sea level rise (RSLR) is governed here by tectonic motion, with the highest west coast rates of RSLR found at the southern end of Cascadia, while RSLR is muted along some stretches of the Olympic Peninsula in the north by uplift. The Cascadia CoPes hub is designed to test two overarching hypotheses: (1) fundamental advances in convergent coastal hazard sciences will transform understanding of the risks coastal communities face and (2) an inclusive, co-produced approach to advancing hazard assessment and mitigation will increase coastal communities’ adaptive capacity and broaden participation in achieving equitable and just disaster risk reduction. With collaboratories representing the diversity of Cascadia coastlines and peoples, the project will: (a) identify likely sources of earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and land-level change, integrate new observations and develop coupled event simulations based on novel probabilistic tectonic multi-hazard risk models; (b) assess climate-driven compound fluvial-coastal flooding and how these drive coastal morphology changes and ecosystems, to quantify probabilistic exposure to coastal hazards under present and future conditions; (c) assess risk mitigation and dynamic adaptation strategies, including use of natural and nature-based features, (d) identify and test multi-use and asset-focused adaptation strategies for disaster risk reduction in processes that incorporate TEK/LEK, (e) study the inclusiveness of coastal governance structures for hazards resilience and science-informed hazards response, and (f) explore the conceptual linkages and communications challenges across (a-e).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.