Collaborative Research: Varieties of Crises, Elite Responses, and Executive Approval

合作研究：各种危机、精英应对和行政审批

• 批准号: 2116467
• 负责人: Ryan Carlin
• 金额: $ 51.05万
• 依托单位: Georgia State University Research Foundation, Inc.
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2024-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2116467&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Varieties; Crises; Elite

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2. This project examines four major types of crises -- economic, security, natural disaster, and public health crises – and how they influence public support for political leaders in contemporary democracies. This is important to understand because leader approval is a key barometer of policymaker accountability and democratic stability, both of which can be undermined by crises. This project analyzes the interplay of four factors which vary systematically across these different types of crises and how, in turn, these shape public evaluations of political executives: (1) the ability of citizens to assign responsibility for policy decisions and outcomes; (2) the degree of expert consensus on effective policy response; (3) how much a given crisis in one area generates acute challenges or crises in other areas; and (4) the extent to which an effective response depends on citizens acting collectively. Several data sets including (quarterly) measures of executive approval and crises; the tone and salience of leader messaging about the crises; the media’s treatment of leader messaging; and (monthly) leader approval for a smaller number of countries for which such data is available; and survey-based experiments in three countries are collected and made publicly available. The award supports education and diversity by building the research capacity of a student project lab at Georgia State University, a Minority Serving Institution, in coordination with PIs at four other universities who will also engage graduate and undergraduate students in this work. Puzzling divergences across countries in public reactions to leader responses to the COVID-19 public health crisis have revealed major gaps in our understanding of how crisis events translate into public assessments of leaders. To resolve these puzzles, this project advances a unifying theoretical framework that identifies four major types of crises: economic, security, natural disaster, and public health. It then locates these crises on four key dimensions which should condition public support of top officials: the institutional and political context and other factors that impact attribution of responsibility, degree of expert consensus and incentives for politicians to follow expert recommendations, the likelihood and nature of spill-over to other crisis types, and the degree to which citizen action is required for an effective response. The project collects data to test theoretically-motivated hypotheses using: 1) a macro time-series cross-national data set to study the effects of crisis type on public approval for political executives for 48 countries, 2) a high-frequency time-series data set appropriate to test how approval dynamics reflect leader responses, as well as messaging choices and media effects for 18 countries for which this data is available, and 3) conjoint experiments in France, Italy, and Mexico, countries with different political and institutional settings, to assess the validity of the links between crisis types and dimensions as well as to validate proposed individual-level mechanisms.This project is supported by the Accountable Institutions and Behavior Program and the SBE Build and Broaden Program.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项全部或部分由《2021年美国救援计划法案》（公法117-2）资助。本项目考察了四种主要类型的危机——经济、安全、自然灾害和公共卫生危机——以及它们如何影响当代民主国家公众对政治领导人的支持。理解这一点很重要，因为领导人的支持率是决策者问责制和民主稳定性的关键晴雨表，而这两者都可能受到危机的破坏。本项目分析了四个因素的相互作用，这些因素在这些不同类型的危机中系统地变化，以及这些因素如何反过来影响政治管理者的公众评价：(1)公民为政策决策和结果分配责任的能力；(2)专家对有效政策反应的共识程度；(3)一个地区的特定危机在多大程度上给其他地区带来了严峻的挑战或危机；(4)有效的反应在多大程度上取决于公民的集体行动。若干数据集，包括（季度）行政审批和危机指标；领导人传达危机信息的语气和突出程度；媒体对领导人信息的处理；以及（每月）少数国家的领导人批准，这些国家可获得此类数据；收集了三个国家的基于调查的实验并将其公之于众。该奖项通过建立佐治亚州立大学（一个少数民族服务机构）的一个学生项目实验室的研究能力，与其他四所大学的pi协调，支持教育和多样性，这些pi也将让研究生和本科生参与这项工作。各国公众对领导人应对2019冠状病毒病公共卫生危机的反应存在令人困惑的差异，这表明我们对危机事件如何转化为公众对领导人的评估的理解存在重大差距。为了解决这些难题，本项目提出了一个统一的理论框架，确定了四种主要类型的危机：经济危机、安全危机、自然灾害危机和公共卫生危机。然后，它将这些危机定位在四个关键维度上，这些维度应该制约公众对高级官员的支持：制度和政治背景以及影响责任归属的其他因素，专家共识的程度和政治家遵循专家建议的激励，溢出到其他危机类型的可能性和性质，以及有效响应需要公民行动的程度。该项目收集数据来测试理论动机假设使用：1)一个宏观时间序列跨国数据集，用于研究危机类型对48个国家政治高管公众支持率的影响；2)一个高频时间序列数据集，用于测试支持率动态如何反映领导人的反应，以及18个国家的信息选择和媒体效应，这些国家有不同的政治和制度设置；3)法国、意大利和墨西哥的联合实验。评估危机类型和维度之间联系的有效性，并验证提出的个人层面机制。本项目由问责机构与行为项目和SBE建设与拓展项目支持。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。