(HNDS-R) Hierarchical Networks of International Order and International Conflict

国际秩序对国际冲突有着深刻的影响。然而，秩序对冲突的影响以及冲突对秩序的影响是复杂的，人们对此知之甚少。此外，用于帮助政策决策的历史类比绝大多数来自西方世界的关系。这项研究采取了多维的方法来提高我们对国际秩序和冲突之间关系的理解。为了阐明将秩序与冲突联系起来的机制，研究团队使用了计算网络模型，这些模型源自一系列广泛的历史案例，将国家行为的动态与国际体系层面的秩序模式联系起来。为了探索这些模型的实用性，该团队开发了衡量政治秩序和系统性不确定性的新网络指标，并对支持秩序的个人层面的决定因素进行了跨国调查研究。该项目有几个更广泛的影响：(1)它有助于更好地理解秩序-冲突关系；(2)它进一步扩大了对国际秩序和对西方世界以外秩序的支持的地理边界；(3)它为有意义地加强国家安全的政策建议提供了更具体的基础。这项研究的目标包括开发与国际秩序、国内政治秩序和冲突有关的计算网络模型；将这些模型扩展到西方世界的背景之外，特别是纳入东方对秩序的理解；基于原始的多国调查数据对这些模型进行验证和校准；以及原创网络发展措施的有序性和不确定性。这些项目将使研究团队更好地了解不同配置的国际秩序对冲突的影响，通过在我们对国内不稳定的集体理解中增加国际维度来改进对政治不稳定的预测，更好地理解非西方国际秩序对冲突的影响，并提供基础知识，以支持旨在利用国际秩序来实现和平和缓解不稳定的外交政策战略。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

International orders have a profound impact on international conflict. Nevertheless, the effects of order on conflict and vice-versa are complex and poorly understood. Moreover, historical analogies that are used to aid policy decisions are overwhelmingly drawn from relationships in the Western world. This research takes a multidimensional approach to improving our understanding of the relationship between international order and conflict. To shed light on the mechanisms that connect order to conflict, the research team uses computational network models, derived from a broad array of historical cases, that connect the dynamics of state behavior to patterns of order at the level of the international system. To explore the utility of those models, the team develops new network measures of political order and systemic uncertainty and conducts cross-national survey research into the individual-level determinants of support for order. The project has several broader impacts: (1) it contributes to an improved understanding of the order-conflict relationship; (2) it further expands the geographic boundaries of the study of international order and support for order beyond the Western world; and (3) it provides a more concrete foundation for policy recommendations that meaningfully enhance national security.The goals of this research include the development of computational network models relating international order, domestic political order, and conflict; the extension of those models beyond the context of the Western World, specifically to incorporate Eastern understandings of order; the validation and calibration of those models on original, multi-country survey data; and the development of original network measures of order and uncertainty. These projects will give the research team a considerably better understanding of the implications of different configurations of international order for conflict, improve forecasts of political instability by adding an international dimension to our collective understanding of domestic instability, provide a better understanding of the implications for conflict of a non-Western international order, and provide foundational knowledge to underpin a foreign policy strategy designed to leverage international order to produce peace and mitigate instability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.