Inequality and Welfare in a Low Rate Environment

低利率环境下的不平等与福利

• 批准号: 2117398
• 负责人: Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant
• 金额: $ 17.53万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-07-15 至 2024-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2117398&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Inequality; Welfare; Low; Rate; Environment

AbstractThe past forty years have been characterized by a secular decline in interest rates and, relatedly, an increase in asset valuations. This proposal consists of two projects that examine the distributional effects of declining interest rates. The first project explores the effect of declining interest rates on wealth inequality. The second examines the welfare implications of declining interest rates by focusing on who gains and who loses from this trend. The project further collects detailed data on high wealth income, and granular data on asset purchases from financial filings and surveys. The project has policy implications in understanding the role of monetary policy on wealth inequality and individual welfare. The first project develops a sufficient statistic approach to determine the long-run effect of lower rates on top wealth inequality, as measured by the Pareto exponent of the wealth distribution. Sufficient statistic is estimated by creating a new dataset on the financing of firms owned by billionaires in the US, by combining surveys of fortunes, financial filings, and stock and firm level financial data. The second project will examine the effect of lower rates, or alternatively higher asset valuations, on individual welfare. Using a standard consumption-saving model, the project will derive a sufficient statistic that captures the lifetime effect of lower rates on welfare. The project will then quantify these statistics by using micro-data on net asset purchases across the whole wealth distribution.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

摘要过去40年的特点是利率长期下降，与此相关的是资产估值上升。该提案包括两个研究利率下降的分配效应的项目。第一个项目探讨了利率下降对财富不平等的影响。第二部分通过关注谁从这一趋势中获益，谁从这一趋势中受损，来考察利率下降对福利的影响。该项目进一步收集高财富收入的详细数据，以及来自金融申报和调查的资产购买的详细数据。该项目在理解货币政策对财富不平等和个人福利的作用方面具有政策意义。第一个项目开发了一种充分的统计方法来确定较低利率对顶层财富不平等的长期影响，通过财富分布的帕累托指数来衡量。通过结合财富调查、财务申报以及股票和公司层面的财务数据，创建有关美国亿万富翁拥有的公司融资的新数据集，估计出足够的统计数据。第二个项目将研究较低的利率或较高的资产估值对个人福利的影响。使用标准的消费-储蓄模型，该项目将得出一个充分的统计数据，以捕捉低利率对福利的终身影响。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。