Collaborative Research: Predictive Intelligence for Pandemic Prevention, Theme 4: Social and Behavioral Obstacles and Supports

虽然流行病自古以来就威胁着人类文明，但如何预测和预防流行病仍然是一项紧迫的挑战，需要创新的见解和实践。流行病是通过偶然的“完美风暴”出现的：病原体的分子变化、气候的渐进趋势、潜在宿主之间生态相互作用的微妙变化，以及人们的个人行为决定，所有这些共同构成了一种已知疾病有趣但罕见的新变种与一场存在的全球危机之间的差异。因此，要能够预测大流行威胁的出现，就需要一种完全综合的多学科方法，能够考虑到这些领域在相互作用范围内的复杂性，从而进行预测，并在理想情况下进行预防。本次研讨会是将社会和行为科学、生物学、工程学和计算机科学等学术团体的专家聚集在一起讨论如何将每个团体采取的方法整合为更有效、更统一的流行病预测科学的四个研讨会之一。本次研讨会的重点是发展对人类态度、社会行为和驱动因素如何形成传染病传播模式以及控制和根除努力的理解。这一基本认识反过来又将促进大流行预防和控制决策，使我们在面对未来大流行威胁时做好更充分的准备。讲习班的结构集中在四个至关重要的主题领域，涉及文化传播、信息和交流、公平和可持续性。本次研讨会的白皮书将为将社会和行为科学的见解纳入预测情报和流行病预防提供重要指导。它将为未来的研究投资、机构能力建设和其他政策优先事项提供信息，旨在保护美国和世界免受未来不可避免的流行病的影响。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Although pandemics have threatened human civilization since ancient times, how to predict and prevent them remains a pressing challenge, calling for innovative insights and practices. Pandemics emerge through incidental ‘perfect storms’: molecular changes in pathogens, gradual trends in climate, subtle shifts in ecological interactions among potential hosts, and individual behavioral decisions by people, all colluding to make up the difference between an interesting but rare new variant of a known disease and an existential worldwide crisis. Being able to predict the emergence of pandemic threats, therefore, requires a fully integrated, multidisciplinary approach, able to consider the complexity of these realms across scales of interaction to predict and, ideally, prevent. This workshop is one of four bringing experts from scholarly communities in the social and behavioral sciences, biology, engineering, and computer science together to discuss how to integrate the approaches taken by each community into a more effective, unified science of pandemic prediction. The focus of this workshop is on developing understanding of how human attitudes, social behavior, and the drivers underlying both shape patterns of infectious-disease transmission and efforts at control and eradication. This fundamental understanding in turn will facilitate pandemic prevention and control decisions that leave us better prepared when confronted with future pandemic threats.The workshop is structured to focus on four topical areas of crucial importance, dealing with cultural transmission, information and communication, equity, and sustainability. The white paper that comes from this workshop will provide important guidance for incorporating insights into the social and behavioral sciences into predictive intelligence and pandemic prevention. It will inform future research investments, institutional capacity-building, and other policy priorities aimed at keeping the US and the world safe from inevitable future pandemics.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.