Storm-environment interactions controlling the probability of supercell tornadogenesis

风暴-环境相互作用控制超级单体龙卷风发生的概率

• 批准号: 2130936
• 负责人: Matthew Parker
• 金额: $ 68.7万
• 依托单位: North Carolina State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-01 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2130936&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Storm; environment; interactions; controlling; probability

The goal of this project is to improve our understanding of why some supercells (rotating thunderstorms) produce tornadoes and others that form in very similar atmospheric conditions do not. The specific chain of processes that result in tornado formation (vs. failure) are known to be highly sensitive to seemingly minor details within the environment and the storm itself. While our community has made substantial progress at forecasting tornadoes in recent decades, we have yet to explain why tornadoes so frequently fail to form within seemingly favorable atmospheric conditions. The specific aim of this research is to understand better these failure points in tornado formation. Without such progress, the ability to forecast and produce timely warnings for tornadoes (and avoid false alarms) is unlikely to further improve. The leading scientists for this project will involve students from diverse background and weather forecasters from the National Weather Service in this research. The expected outcome would improve our basic understanding of how tornadoes form and lead to improvements in public forecasts and warnings.The investigators seek to advance our fundamental scientific knowledge of supercells and tornado formation through hypothesis-driven research. The proposed work will directly compare the attributes of tornadic and nontornadic supercells with a hierarchy of computer modeling techniques, including large ensembles of simulations and incorporating novel techniques to emulate environments that vary in time. The proposed work will also quantify the roles of environmental (external to the storm) vs. within-storm processes in supercell tornado formation. Finally, the proposed work will explain the precursors (prior to storm formation) responsible for the generation of favorable environmental conditions for tornadoes (specifically, the atmospheric wind profile very near the ground).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这个项目的目标是提高我们对为什么一些超级单体(旋转雷暴)会产生龙卷风，而在非常相似的大气条件下形成的其他超级单体不会的理解。众所周知，导致龙卷风形成(与失败)的特定过程链对环境和风暴本身中看似次要的细节高度敏感。虽然我们的社区在近几十年来在预测龙卷风方面取得了实质性进展，但我们还没有解释为什么龙卷风如此频繁地未能在看似有利的大气条件下形成。这项研究的具体目的是为了更好地了解龙卷风形成过程中的这些故障点。如果没有这样的进展，预测和及时发出龙卷风警报(并避免错误警报)的能力不太可能进一步提高。该项目的主要科学家将包括来自不同背景的学生和国家气象局的天气预报员参与这项研究。预期的结果将提高我们对龙卷风如何形成的基本理解，并导致公众预测和警告的改进。研究人员试图通过假设驱动的研究来推进我们关于超级单体和龙卷风形成的基础科学知识。这项拟议的工作将直接比较龙卷风和非龙卷风超级单体的属性与计算机建模技术的层次，包括大型模拟集合和结合新技术来模拟随时间变化的环境。这项拟议的工作还将量化环境(风暴外部)与风暴内部过程在超级单体龙卷风形成中的作用。最后，拟议的工作将解释产生龙卷风的有利环境条件(具体地说，非常接近地面的大气风廓线)的前兆(在风暴形成之前)。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Assessing the Comparative Effects of Storm-Relative Helicity Components within Right-Moving Supercell Environments

评估右移超级单体环境中风暴相关螺旋度分量的比较效果

• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-22-0253.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Goldacker, Nicholas A.;Parker, Matthew D.
• 通讯作者: Parker, Matthew D.

How Well Must Surface Vorticity Be Organized for Tornadogenesis?

龙卷风发生时表面涡量的组织必须如何？

• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-22-0195.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Parker, Matthew D.

Supercell Low-Level Mesocyclones: Origins of Inflow and Vorticity

超级单体低层中气旋：流入和涡度的起源

• DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-22-0269.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Monthly Weather Review
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Coffer, Brice E.;Parker, Matthew D.;Peters, John M.;Wade, Andrew R.
• 通讯作者: Wade, Andrew R.

Investigating the relationship between polarimetric radar signatures of hydrometeor size sorting and tornadic potential in simulated supercells

研究模拟超级单体中水凝物尺寸分类的偏振雷达特征与龙卷势之间的关系

• DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-22-0228.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Monthly Weather Review
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Loeffler, Scott D.;Kumjian, Matthew R.;Markowski, Paul M.;Coffer, Brice E.;Parker, Matthew D.
• 通讯作者: Parker, Matthew D.

Disentangling the Influences of Storm-Relative Flow and Horizontal Streamwise Vorticity on Low-Level Mesocyclones in Supercells

解开风暴相对流和水平流向涡度对超级单体中低层中气旋的影响

• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-22-0114.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Peters, John M.;Coffer, Brice E.;Parker, Matthew D.;Nowotarski, Christopher J.;Mulholland, Jake P.;Nixon, Cameron J.;Allen, John T.
• 通讯作者: Allen, John T.