Mechanisms Controlling the Probability of Tornadogenesis in Supercell Thunderstorms

形成龙卷风的超级单体雷暴的特征是众所周知的。 然而，表现出这些特征的超级单体中有很大一部分不会发展龙卷风。 该研究奖将使用高分辨率的数值模拟来研究为什么龙卷风在其他有利的环境中如此频繁地失败。 这项工作有可能改善龙卷风的预报、临近预报和警报。 该奖项还将有助于培训和指导早期职业研究科学家，确保一支多样化和高能力的劳动力队伍。研究团队将进行数值模拟研究，以分析风暴内属性和相关的环境特征，区分模拟龙卷风和非龙卷风超级单体。 研究人员建议，更多的研究需要发生在龙卷风发生成功或失败的点上，而不是集中在旋转的起源上。 云模型1（CM1）模型将用于理想化的模拟集合、多风暴模拟和玩具模型模拟，以：1）解释为什么具有大表面垂直涡度的超级单体通常不能产生显著的龙卷风，2）建立与龙卷风发生概率高的超级单体最直接、物理联系的环境代理，解释为什么同一环境中的多个超级单体在龙卷风产生方面会有巨大的差异。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The characteristics of supercell thunderstorms that form tornadoes are well-known. However, a large fraction of the supercells that exhibit those characteristics do not develop tornadoes. This research award will use high-resolution numerical modeling to investigate why tornadogenesis so frequently fails in environments that are otherwise favorable. The work has the potential to improve forecasting, nowcasting and warnings for tornadoes. The award will also contribute to training and mentoring of early-career research scientists, ensuring a diverse and highly capable workforce.The research team will conduct a numerical modeling study to analyze the within-storm attributes and associated environmental traits that distinguish simulated tornadic from non-tornadic supercells. The researchers suggest that more study needs to happen at the point at which tornadogenesis succeeds or fails, rather than focusing on the origin of the rotation. The Cloud Model 1 (CM1) model will be used in idealized simulation ensembles, multi-storm simulations, and toy model simulations to: 1) Explain why supercells with large surface vertical vorticity often fail to produce significant tornadoes, 2) Establish the environmental proxies that are most directly, physically linked to supercells with a high probability of tornadogenesis, and 3) Explain why multiple supercells within the same environment can differ dramatically in terms of tornado production.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.