Mechanisms Controlling the Probability of Tornadogenesis in Supercell Thunderstorms

形成龙卷风的超级单体雷暴的特征是众所周知的。然而，大部分表现出这些特征的超级单体并没有发展成龙卷风。该研究奖将使用高分辨率数值模拟来研究为什么在其他有利的环境中，龙卷风形成如此频繁地失败。这项工作有可能改善龙卷风的预报、临近预报和预警。该奖项还将有助于培训和指导早期职业研究科学家，确保多样化和高能力的劳动力。研究小组将进行数值模拟研究，分析风暴内部属性和相关环境特征，以区分模拟龙卷风和非龙卷风超级单体。研究人员建议，更多的研究需要发生在龙卷风形成成功或失败的地方，而不是关注旋转的起源。云模式1 （CM1）模式将用于理想模拟组合、多风暴模拟和玩具模型模拟，以便：1)解释为什么具有大表面垂直涡度的超级单体通常不能产生显著的龙卷风；2)建立与具有高龙卷风形成可能性的超级单体最直接、物理联系的环境代理；3)解释为什么在同一环境中的多个超级单体在龙卷风产生方面可能存在显著差异。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The characteristics of supercell thunderstorms that form tornadoes are well-known. However, a large fraction of the supercells that exhibit those characteristics do not develop tornadoes. This research award will use high-resolution numerical modeling to investigate why tornadogenesis so frequently fails in environments that are otherwise favorable. The work has the potential to improve forecasting, nowcasting and warnings for tornadoes. The award will also contribute to training and mentoring of early-career research scientists, ensuring a diverse and highly capable workforce.The research team will conduct a numerical modeling study to analyze the within-storm attributes and associated environmental traits that distinguish simulated tornadic from non-tornadic supercells. The researchers suggest that more study needs to happen at the point at which tornadogenesis succeeds or fails, rather than focusing on the origin of the rotation. The Cloud Model 1 (CM1) model will be used in idealized simulation ensembles, multi-storm simulations, and toy model simulations to: 1) Explain why supercells with large surface vertical vorticity often fail to produce significant tornadoes, 2) Establish the environmental proxies that are most directly, physically linked to supercells with a high probability of tornadogenesis, and 3) Explain why multiple supercells within the same environment can differ dramatically in terms of tornado production.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.