NSF Convergence Accelerator Track E: Combining high-resolution climate simulations with ocean biogeochemistry, fisheries and decision-making models to improve sustainable fisheries

NSF汇聚加速器轨道E：将高分辨率气候模拟与海洋生物地球化学、渔业和决策模型相结合，以改善可持续渔业。鱼类和贝类种群是世界上许多人的重要蛋白质来源，其中几个最大的种群发现在太平洋和大西洋的东部边界，那里寒冷的深水向表面移动，带来营养物质，支持植物(浮游植物)和以此为食的鱼类种群的生产。为了确保可持续性，鱼类和贝类管理者不仅需要关于任何给定时间可获得的动物数量的信息，而且还需要关于未来潜在数量的信息，以便他们能够规划所需的渔船数量或海产品加工厂的规模。然而，预测这些东部边界地区将发生什么是困难的，因为当地的风迅速改变了条件。不利的气候影响，如海洋温度上升和酸度增加，已经影响到许多依赖沿海渔业的社区，也必须考虑这种较长期的变化。该项目旨在开发一个决策支持系统，该系统使用结合了海洋物理、化学和生物学的最新海洋模型，以帮助鱼类和贝类管理者做出决策。这一点很重要，因为有许多利益攸关方参与捕捞鱼类和贝类，他们可能存在潜在的利益冲突。为此，这项研究旨在将海洋模型的产出与一个基于网络的决策支持系统相结合，该系统将帮助渔业管理人员和业界作出明智的决策，以确保该行业及其相关的粮食生产都是可持续的。调查人员将直接与利益相关者合作，开发专门能够满足他们需求的工具。这项工作最初的重点是美国西海岸从加州到华盛顿的加州海流系统，该系统支持当地的海鲜产业，每年价值约120亿美元，另外还有数十亿美元来自外国船只在美国上岸的渔获物。如果成功，新工具应该可以扩展到全球海洋的其他类似地区，从而增加研究的价值。该项目将为学生，包括那些来自代表性不足群体的学生提供使用最新海洋模型的培训，并为参与机构的年轻教员提供发展机会。气候变化驱动的不利海洋影响已经影响到许多农村、沿海、依赖渔业的社区，在可预见的未来，这些不利影响可能会加速。预测东部边界上升流系统的潜在变化最近得益于全球地球系统模型分辨率的提高，因此最新的10公里海洋分辨率的涡旋解析模型大大减少了相对于观测值的系统误差。该项目旨在利用这些进展来改进对加州当前生态系统渔业潜力的预测，并改善管理者和其他利益攸关方的决策。该项目将把这种高分辨率模型模拟的结果与海洋生物地球化学图书馆和渔业规模和功能类型模型结合起来，从而将物理、化学和生物学与气候变异性结合起来。结果将与一个原型、基于网络的决策支持系统相结合，该系统使用数学决策分析能力，以协助渔业管理者对渔业生产所依赖的复杂的、与气候有关的决策问题进行建模。这对于确保该区域能够长期继续支持可持续渔业和以捕鱼为生的社区至关重要。在第一阶段，该项目将开发这种关联决策系统的原型。该项目还将发展一个由模型师、社会科学家、渔业管理人员、经济学家以及行业和社区利益攸关方组成的网络良好的多学科团队，以促进汇聚科学，并为在不断变化的气候下实现更可持续的渔业开辟途径。这一团队对于开发直接适用于渔业利益攸关方需求的工具至关重要，并将在整个项目期间通过所有群体之间的有意义的沟通加以培养。如果成功，模式套装和决策支持系统应该可以推广到全球海洋的其他类似区域。学生和博士后研究人员是下一代科学家，他们将接受决策分析和使用最新高分辨率模型的培训。此外，该项目将为参与该计划的早期职业女性合作个人提供宝贵的职业发展机会。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

NSF Convergence Accelerator Track E: Combining high-resolution climate simulations with ocean biogeochemistry, fisheries and decision-making models to improve sustainable fisheries.Fish and shellfish populations are a vital source of protein for many of the world’s people, and several of the largest are found along the eastern boundaries of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, where cold, deep water moves towards the surface, bringing nutrients that support both production by plants (phytoplankton) and the fish populations that feed on them. To ensure sustainability, fish and shellfish managers need information not only on the number of animals available at any given time, but also on potential future numbers, so that they can plan for such things as the number of fishing boats required or the size of seafood processing plants. Forecasting what will occur in such eastern boundary areas is difficult, however, because local winds rapidly change conditions. Adverse climate impacts, such as rising ocean temperatures and increasing acidity, are already affecting many coastal fishing-dependent communities, and such longer-term changes also have to be considered. The project aims to develop a decision support system, which uses the latest ocean models incorporating marine physics, chemistry and biology, to assist fish and shellfish managers in making their decisions. This is important as there are many stakeholders involved in harvesting fish and shellfish, who may have potentially conflicting interests. To this end, the research is aimed at integrating the outputs from the ocean models with a web-based decision support system that will help fisheries managers and industry make informed decisions to ensure that both the industry and its associated food production are sustainable. The investigators will work directly with the stakeholders to develop tools that are specifically able to meet their needs. The initial focus of the work is the California Current system along the U.S. west coast from California to Washington, which supports a local seafood industry valued annually at about $12 billion, with additional billions from catches landed by foreign boats in the U.S. If successful, the new tools should be extendable to other similar regions of the global ocean, thus increasing the value of the research. The project will provide training for students, including those from under-represented groups, in the use of the latest ocean models, as well as development opportunities for young faculty members at the participating institutions.Climate change-driven adverse ocean impacts are already affecting many rural, coastal, fishing-dependent communities, and these adverse impacts will likely accelerate for the foreseeable future. Forecasting potential changes in eastern boundary upwelling systems has benefitted recently from improvements in the resolution of global Earth system models, so that the latest eddy-resolving models at 10 km ocean resolution have greatly reduced systematic errors relative to observations. This project aims to use these advancements to improve forecasts of the fisheries potential of the California Current Ecosystem and improve decision making by managers and other stakeholders. The project will couple the output from such a high-resolution model simulation with the Marine Biogeochemistry Library and Fisheries Size and Functional Type models, thus incorporating physics, chemistry and biology with climate variability. The results will be integrated with a prototype, web-based decision support system, that uses mathematical decision analysis capabilities, to assist fisheries managers to model the complex, climate-related decision problems on which fisheries production depends. This is vital to ensure that the region can continue to support a sustainable fishery in the long term and the communities that depend on fishing for a living. In Phase 1, the project will develop a prototype of this linked decision system. The project will also develop a well-networked multidisciplinary team of modelers, social scientists, fisheries managers, economists, and industry and community stakeholders to advance convergence science and develop avenues for more sustainable fisheries under a changing climate. This team is essential for developing tools that are directly applicable to the needs of fishery stakeholders and will be fostered by meaningful communication between all groups throughout the project period. If successful, the model suite and decision support system should be extendable to other similar regions of the global ocean. Students and post-doctoral researchers, the next generation of scientists, will be trained in decision analysis and to use the most current high-resolution models. Furthermore, the project will provide valuable professional development opportunities for early career female Co-PIs involved in the program.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.