ERI: Analyzing the Impact of Outdoor Water-Use Restrictions and the COVID-19 Pandemic on Water Consumption in Massachusetts

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This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).This Engineering Research Initiation (ERI) project will provide critical understanding of the impacts of outdoor water-use restrictions on water consumption in Massachusetts. Despite relatively abundant rainfall and regulations on water withdrawal, Massachusetts’ water supplies are stressed. Consequently, public water suppliers are often required to implement outdoor water-use restrictions by the regulatory authority. These restrictions are complex, non-uniform, and contentious, and the COVID-19 pandemic is yet another confounding factor. This project, the first of its kind to be implemented at a state-wide scale anywhere in the United States, will (a) provide new insights to facilitate integrated water resources management at the scale of major river basins, (b) provide comprehensive analysis to inform regulatory action, and (c) empower public water suppliers with improved understanding of the factors influencing restriction effectiveness. Furthermore, this project will identify the impact of the pandemic, thus providing knowledge about the resilience of Massachusetts’ water supply systems and revealing important lessons for ensuring water supply under future unforeseen conditions. Lastly, this project will provide meaningful research experiences for undergraduate and master students, including those in minority/underrepresented groups, resulting in valuable benefits such as increased independence and intrinsic motivation to learn.The project consists of developing a panel regression model, complemented by interviewing public supply water managers. The panel regression will be based on 11 years of monthly data across all Massachusetts’ public water suppliers, with water consumption as the dependent variable and drivers of consumption as the independent variables. The consumption drivers fall into three main categories: hydrometeorological conditions (e.g., precipitation, temperature, and drought status), consumer characteristics (e.g., income, household size, and political affiliation), and public water supplier management decisions (e.g., restriction severity and timing, promotion of water conservation, and pricing). Additional independent variables will be used to represent impervious or green area and to address the presence and severity of the pandemic. The interviews with water managers will be used to create storylines that guide the development and interpretation of the panel regression. The interview questions focus on demand and drought management and on how the pandemic has affected water consumption. The project will provide the first state-wide assessment of water-use restrictions to be performed anywhere in the United States, will generate insight on the effectiveness of both drought-based and permanent restrictions, and will identify the impacts of the pandemic on water consumption.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.