ERI: An Integrative Risk Quantification and Management Framework to Enhance the Resiliency of Surface Transportation Systems Under Disruptive Precipitation

ERI：综合风险量化和管理框架，以增强地面交通系统在破坏性降水下的弹性

• 批准号: 2138549
• 负责人: Nafiseh Ghorbani Renani
• 金额: $ 20万
• 依托单位: Stevens Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-01-01 至 2024-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2138549&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: ERI; Integrative; Risk; Quantification; Management

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).Flood events are one of the most common natural disasters affecting the US. Recurring nuisance precipitation and less severe flood events affect urban environments with much higher frequency when compared to more severe events. More frequent events pose higher safety risks to public transit users, pedestrians, and drivers and cause challenges to accessing transportation infrastructure. By focusing on the less severe flood events and heavy precipitation, this Engineering Research Initiation (ERI) project provides a scalable framework that will holistically capture the impacts of a city's characteristics, infrastructures' attributes, human travel behaviors, and disruptive events' patterns on transportation resilience. The researched framework will enhance the safety and efficiency of the US surface transportation system, resulting in strong societal and economic impacts. The goal of this project is to scientifically understand surface transportation network’s risks under disruptive precipitation events and effectively communicate such risks. Further, the researched framework will provide an educational tool to teach quantitative decision-making and risk analysis and assist with computationally efficient transportation operation policy learning. Focusing on the flood-prone area of Hoboken, New Jersey, this multi-element modeling approach will promote a pragmatic decision-making platform supporting the interactions between humans and the built environment. The project harnesses knowledge from resiliency planning, risk analysis and communication, survey design, transportation engineering, graph theory and network modeling, and reinforcement learning to transform the simplified assumptions utilized in the existing transportation resiliency modeling efforts. The project will estimate and validate the local and system-wide impacts of flooding on mobility and accessibility. Upon quantifying the effects of disruptive precipitation on mobility and accessibility, and predicting road flood susceptibility, driver behavior and disruptive patterns will be evaluated and simulated during and after disruptions through scenario generation. The objective is to provide a framework that improves operational decision-making through prioritization and risk communication. The resulting framework will encompass all elements leading to disruption by precipitation in flood-prone areas and consequential travel patterns causing further hindrance and safety hazards to travel networks.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项全部或部分由2021年美国救援计划法案（公法117-2）资助。洪水事件是影响美国最常见的自然灾害之一。与更严重的事件相比，经常性的滋扰性降水和不太严重的洪水事件以更高的频率影响城市环境。更频繁的事件对公共交通用户、行人和司机构成更高的安全风险，并对使用交通基础设施造成挑战。通过关注不太严重的洪水事件和强降水，这个工程研究启动（ERI）项目提供了一个可扩展的框架，将全面捕捉城市的特点，基础设施的属性，人类出行行为和破坏性事件的模式对交通弹性的影响。研究框架将提高美国地面运输系统的安全性和效率，产生强大的社会和经济影响。本项目的目标是科学地认识破坏性降水事件下地面交通网络的风险，并有效地沟通这些风险。此外，研究框架将提供一个教育工具，教定量决策和风险分析，并协助计算效率的运输运营政策学习。以新泽西霍博肯的洪水易发区为重点，这种多元素建模方法将促进一个务实的决策平台，支持人与建筑环境之间的互动。该项目利用弹性规划，风险分析和沟通，调查设计，运输工程，图论和网络建模以及强化学习的知识来转换现有运输弹性建模工作中使用的简化假设。该项目将估计和验证洪水对当地和全系统流动性和可达性的影响。在量化破坏性降水对流动性和可达性的影响，并预测道路洪水的敏感性，司机的行为和破坏性模式将进行评估和模拟期间和之后的中断通过场景生成。目标是提供一个框架，通过确定优先事项和风险沟通改进业务决策。由此产生的框架将包括所有因素导致破坏降水在洪水易发地区和相应的旅行模式造成进一步的障碍和安全隐患的旅行network.This奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得的支持，通过评估使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。