CAREER: The AI Revolution and Autocratic Institutions

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There is currently and autocratic revolution where autocratic regimes become increasingly technologically capable, economically vibrant, and politically stable, yet researchers have not explored the long-term consequences of such a development. This research will use a series of large data sets and innovative research methods to study the political, economic, and social consequences of artificial intelligence innovation (AI) led by modern autocracy. The research project first examines whether frontier innovation can be sustained under autocracy; then investigates the impact of AI-led political and social controls on citizens; and finally assess the consequences on global politics through trade. Specifically, the research studies conditions under which autocracy can coexist with innovation and whether citizens may be able to use AI to protect themselves from autocratic control, and finally, how autocratic rule may be spread globally through the exports of AI technology that bolsters autocracy. The results of this research will provide important inputs into policies to strengthen democratic governance globally and to solidify the U.S. as the global leader in promoting democracy. This proposed research will use three projects to study the interaction between technological innovation as exemplified by artificial intelligence (AI) and modern autocratic rule. The first project will use a large data set to investigate whether a different political economy equilibrium in which autocracy and sustained technological progress are in symbiotic relationship where AI innovation is stimulated by political control can emerge. The second project combines field experiments with administrative data to study how citizens change their behavior when a large number of daily actions are explicitly monitored by autocratic rulers, and whether such experience shapes privacy preferences. The third project will build a large data set on AI exports and use the data to investigate whether: (i) autocracies have comparative advantage in AI technology, and (ii) countries importing AI technology from autocracies subsequently increase political suppression. The results of this research will provide important inputs into policies to strengthen democratic governance globally and to solidify the U.S. as the global leader in promoting democracy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.