CAREER: The AI Revolution and Autocratic Institutions

目前有一场专制革命，专制政权在技术上变得越来越强大，经济上充满活力，政治上也越来越稳定，但研究人员还没有探索这种发展的长期后果。本研究将使用一系列大型数据集和创新的研究方法来研究由现代专制统治领导的人工智能创新（AI）的政治、经济和社会后果。该研究项目首先考察了前沿创新能否在专制制度下持续；然后调查人工智能主导的政治和社会控制对公民的影响；最后评估贸易对全球政治的影响。具体而言，该研究研究了专制与创新共存的条件，以及公民是否能够使用人工智能来保护自己免受专制控制，最后，专制统治如何通过出口支持专制的人工智能技术在全球范围内传播。这项研究的结果将为加强全球民主治理和巩固美国作为促进民主的全球领导者的政策提供重要的投入。本研究将使用三个项目来研究以人工智能（AI）为例的技术创新与现代专制统治之间的相互作用。第一个项目将使用一个大型数据集来调查是否会出现一种不同的政治经济平衡，在这种平衡中，专制和持续的技术进步处于共生关系，人工智能创新受到政治控制的刺激。第二个项目将实地实验与管理数据结合起来，研究当大量日常行为受到专制统治者的明确监控时，公民如何改变他们的行为，以及这种经历是否会影响隐私偏好。第三个项目将建立一个关于人工智能出口的大型数据集，并使用这些数据来调查：(i)专制国家在人工智能技术方面是否具有比较优势，以及（ii）从专制国家进口人工智能技术的国家随后是否增加了政治压制。这项研究的结果将为加强全球民主治理和巩固美国作为促进民主的全球领导者的政策提供重要的投入。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

There is currently and autocratic revolution where autocratic regimes become increasingly technologically capable, economically vibrant, and politically stable, yet researchers have not explored the long-term consequences of such a development. This research will use a series of large data sets and innovative research methods to study the political, economic, and social consequences of artificial intelligence innovation (AI) led by modern autocracy. The research project first examines whether frontier innovation can be sustained under autocracy; then investigates the impact of AI-led political and social controls on citizens; and finally assess the consequences on global politics through trade. Specifically, the research studies conditions under which autocracy can coexist with innovation and whether citizens may be able to use AI to protect themselves from autocratic control, and finally, how autocratic rule may be spread globally through the exports of AI technology that bolsters autocracy. The results of this research will provide important inputs into policies to strengthen democratic governance globally and to solidify the U.S. as the global leader in promoting democracy. This proposed research will use three projects to study the interaction between technological innovation as exemplified by artificial intelligence (AI) and modern autocratic rule. The first project will use a large data set to investigate whether a different political economy equilibrium in which autocracy and sustained technological progress are in symbiotic relationship where AI innovation is stimulated by political control can emerge. The second project combines field experiments with administrative data to study how citizens change their behavior when a large number of daily actions are explicitly monitored by autocratic rulers, and whether such experience shapes privacy preferences. The third project will build a large data set on AI exports and use the data to investigate whether: (i) autocracies have comparative advantage in AI technology, and (ii) countries importing AI technology from autocracies subsequently increase political suppression. The results of this research will provide important inputs into policies to strengthen democratic governance globally and to solidify the U.S. as the global leader in promoting democracy.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.