Assessing the Impact of Human Capital on Jobs and Political Attitudes

评估人力资本对就业和政治态度的影响

• 批准号: 2149363
• 负责人: Taryn Dinkelman
• 金额: $ 37.93万
• 依托单位: University of Notre Dame
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-04-01 至 2025-03-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2149363&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Assessing; Impact; Human; Capital; Jobs

This proposed research will study how labor market opportunities and political attitudes have changed in response to population-level schooling gains over the last several decades, drawing on evidence from a large number of developing countries. While several countries rapidly train a large pool of skilled workers, they struggle to create good jobs to absorb this educated labor force. Large fractions of low-skilled workers are underemployed, while many of the highly skilled are unemployed and waiting for jobs. This labor market dysfunction is puzzling to economists who have study how workers shift from low productivity agriculture to higher productivity non-farm sectors during the process of economic development. The research results will be helpful for both micro- and macro-oriented research in development economics and inform policy making to create jobs and reduce poverty. This project will contribute graduate education, generate new data sets on education, as well as provide inputs into education policy. The results of this research will guide educational policy as well as the spread of democracy across the globe. This research project will leverage publicly available individual-level census data and other data sets and policy-driven variation in access to education generated by free primary education (FPE) laws to investigate two issues: (i) does increased education change job expectations and if so, what impact does it have on labor market outcomes?; (ii) does education-induced increase in unemployment lead to decrease faith in democracy? The PI develops a simple theoretical model education, labor market outcomes beliefs in democracy, and apply difference-in-differences (diff-and-diff) and regression discontinuity-in-differences (RD-in-diff) techniques to generate causal evidence of the impact of additional education on employment outcomes, and on political attitudes. The PI relies on random variation in changes in education policies across countries and through time for identification. Instead of cross-country analyses, the PI will provide new understanding about labor markets in developing countries by implementing a consistent set of research methodologies in each country, to identify the impacts of human capital on labor markets. The results of this research will guide educational policy making in several parts of the world.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这项拟议的研究将利用来自大量发展中国家的证据，研究劳动力市场机会和政治态度如何随着过去几十年人口教育水平的提高而发生变化。虽然一些国家迅速培养了大批熟练工人，但它们难以创造良好的就业机会来吸收这些受过良好教育的劳动力。大量低技能工人未充分就业，而许多高技能工人失业并等待工作。这种劳动力市场的功能失调让那些研究工人在经济发展过程中如何从低生产率的农业部门转向高生产率的非农业部门的经济学家感到困惑。研究结果将有助于发展经济学的微观和宏观研究，并为政策制定提供信息，以创造就业和减少贫困。这个项目将促进研究生教育，产生新的教育数据集，并为教育政策提供投入。这项研究的结果将指导教育政策以及民主在全球的传播。本研究项目将利用可公开获得的个人层面人口普查数据和其他数据集，以及免费初等教育（FPE）法律产生的受教育机会的政策驱动差异，调查两个问题：(i)教育水平的提高是否会改变工作预期，如果是这样，它对劳动力市场结果有什么影响？（ii）教育导致的失业率上升是否会导致对民主的信心下降？PI开发了一个简单的理论模型，教育、劳动力市场结果对民主的信念，并应用差异中的差异（diffand -diff）和差异中的回归不连续性（RD-in-diff）技术来生成额外教育对就业结果和政治态度影响的因果证据。PI依赖于各国教育政策变化的随机变化以及不同时期的识别。与跨国分析不同，PI将通过在每个国家实施一套一致的研究方法，提供对发展中国家劳动力市场的新认识，以确定人力资本对劳动力市场的影响。这项研究的结果将指导世界上一些地区的教育政策制定。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。