RAPID: Fare Free Public Transportation - A Full Scale Natural Experiment in Alexandria, Virginia

RAPID：免费公共交通 - 弗吉尼亚州亚历山大的全面自然实验

• 批准号: 2153689
• 负责人: Anna Alberini
• 金额: $ 16.98万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-02-01 至 2024-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2153689&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Fare; Free; Public; Transportation

This Grant for Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project will assess the effects of free public transit and improved network connectivity on ridership, miles driven by private vehicles, emissions of greenhouse gases and conventional pollutants, congestion and traffic, and will study its distributional effects on different income groups and ethnicities. The project is based on a full-scale natural experiment conducted in Alexandria, Virginia, where the local transit agency DASH (Driving Alexandria Safely Home) has decided to implement a fare-free public transportation program over its service territory, motivated primarily by fairness and equity considerations. Such a natural experiment will be based on a data collection the study area and from one or more control locations—while the program is in place, and retrospectively for a suitable period before its implementation—for a proper assessment of its accomplishments and effects. The survey plan will involve both users of the DASH system as well as members of the general public at the treatment location to understand actual or potential travel, general travel patterns, and whether the fare free has displaced private car travel and emissions, or other transportation modes. The data collection plan will be complemented with parallel surveys of transit users and members of the general public at the control locations to elicit similar information and their intended use of transit if the bus became free. This research and its results may influence policy recommendations and infrastructure investment decisions that will impact the future of our transportation system and the quality of life of citizens in America. The impacts from this project are especially relevant at this time, when transit use is slowly recovering from the pandemic and has not yet reached pre-pandemic ridership and travel mode shares, and when large-scale funding to infrastructure is being considered by this Administration and the Congress.From a methodological perspective, the study involves challenging statistical procedures in terms of sampling, analyzing, and modeling the data from both probabilistic and non-probabilistic samples. Challenges include the construction of sampling weights, the selection of control location, matching treated and control subjects to ensure valid statistical inference, and many others. A multi-disciplinary team composed by faculties and students in engineering, economics, survey methodology and mathematics will work collaboratively on survey design, data linkage, econometric model estimation, and travel behavior and policy analysis. The project is expected to be serving as a proof of concept for similar programs elsewhere and will be a reference for the many transit agencies implementing innovative policy schemes to increase ridership and accessibility.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

快速反应研究赠款（RAPID）项目将评估免费公共交通和改善网络连接对乘客量、私人车辆行驶里程、温室气体和传统污染物排放、拥堵和交通的影响，并将研究其对不同收入群体和种族的分布影响。该项目基于在弗吉尼亚州亚历山大市进行的全面自然实验，当地交通机构DASH（安全驾驶亚历山大回家）决定在其服务范围内实施免费公共交通计划，主要出于公平和公正的考虑。这样一个自然的实验将基于数据收集的研究领域和从一个或多个控制位置，而该计划是在适当的位置，并回顾了一段适当的时间，在其实施之前，其成就和效果进行适当的评估。调查计划将涉及DASH系统的用户以及治疗地点的普通公众，以了解实际或潜在的旅行，一般旅行模式，以及免费是否取代了私家车旅行和排放或其他交通方式。数据收集计划将辅之以在控制地点对公交用户和普通公众进行的平行调查，以了解类似的信息，以及如果公交车免费，他们打算如何使用公交。这项研究及其结果可能会影响政策建议和基础设施投资决策，这将影响我们交通系统的未来和美国公民的生活质量。目前，公共交通使用正在从疫情中缓慢恢复，乘客量和出行方式份额尚未达到疫情前的水平，本届政府和国会正在考虑为基础设施提供大规模资金，该项目的影响尤其重要。从方法论角度来看，该研究涉及抽样、分析、以及对来自概率和非概率样本的数据进行建模。挑战包括抽样权重的构建，控制位置的选择，匹配治疗和控制对象，以确保有效的统计推断，以及其他许多问题。由工程，经济学，调查方法和数学的教师和学生组成的多学科团队将在调查设计，数据链接，计量经济模型估计以及旅行行为和政策分析方面进行合作。该项目有望成为其他地方类似项目的概念验证，并将成为许多公交机构实施创新政策计划以增加乘客量和可达性的参考。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。